Aug
25
2015
2

North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple’s retirement puts Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in quite the pickle.

Short version: Gov. Jack Dalrymple, a Republican, will not seek another term (North Dakota is one of the states that elects Governors in Presidential election years). Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, wants to be governor of North Dakota. This, then, would be a heavy temptation for her.

Two ‘problems,’ however*: one, North Dakota is a heavily Republican state, so she might lose. That will make her 2018 re-election… interesting. Sen. Heitkamp barely won in a squeaker in 2012; she has absolutely no margin whatsoever. But if Heidi Heitkamp wins the gubernatorial election, then the Democrats have an immediate headache: North Dakota passed a law earlier this year that dictates that all Senate vacancies must be filled via special election.  Given that the Democratic bench is as devastated in North Dakota as it is everywhere else in the United States, this effectively means that she’d be replaced with a Republican. (more…)

Aug
22
2015
8

Sen. Rand Paul looks likely to be able to run for Senate and President next year.

Politico: “The Kentucky GOP’s central committee voted Saturday to adopt a presidential caucus system next year, clearing the way Republican Sen. Rand Paul to run for president and reelection at the same time.” It’s costing Senator Rand Paul $500K to do this – he’s agreed to cover the costs of the Kentucky GOP running a caucus instead of a primary – but apparently the first-term Senator thinks that it’s worth it. Certainly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell does, too. (more…)

Jul
14
2015
5

Tweet/Quote of the Day, 2015 Is Pretty Much A Silly-Season Year In The 2016 Election Cycle edition.

This is insightful (which is, of course, code for “I’ve been saying this for a while now myself”):

One reason I don’t sweat Trump too much. What’s the point? He’s not going to make it to the actual primaries anyway.

Jun
30
2015
16

Quote of the Day, Victories Are Fragile edition.

This here is an important point that can’t be brought up enough.

Ever wonder why no interesting center-left Democrats aren’t challenging an increasingly vulnerable Hillary Clinton? There aren’t any. Nobody. No one.

As Britain and France were bled white by their World War I battles, the Democrats were drained by a series of midterm debacles in which those in swing states were punished by voters, and all but the bluest of blue were cut down. On the altar of healthcare, Democrats sacrificed the fruit of two cycles of party-expansion, the picking of people who could win in red states and red districts, to bolster the party’s breadth and appeal.

(more…)

Jun
23
2015
5

Interesting breakdown by Cook on the 2016 electorate.

I’m having a problem with the formatting for it, but even on first glance I’m struck by the way that Cook is basically conceding that the Democrats’ cause for optimism – and, judging from the title (Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don’t Guarantee a Democratic White House) Charlie Cook isn’t as optimistic – starts by conceding that Hillary Clinton needs no net change in the black vote to even be able to hope to win. That is by no means assured in the 2016 election. Cook kind of hints at it in the tables, where he pegs the GOP’s must-win numbers among African-Americans at 10% – which, of course, was the old rule-of-thumb number prior to 2008.   (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Jun
14
2015
16

Resign yourself to not having Barack Obama to kick around very much anymore.

This is basically what happened:

President Barack Obama wanted Congress to pass a variety of trade-related proposals, and he didn’t want to have to rely on Republican votes in order to see that happen. He lobbied his fellow Democrats in favor of trade, and he lobbied them hard. In the end, it wasn’t enough. On Friday, the president endured a stern censure from the very members of the party for whom he once served as a savior. Barack Obama’s presidency is all but over. It’s Hillary Clinton’s party now, but she does not seem inclined to lead it so much as to emerge as its supervisor by default and through a process of attrition. She is not in a hurry to rush that process, and there is no alternative Democratic leader waiting in the wings. Inadvertently, what House Democrats did on Friday was to decapitate their own party.

(more…)

Jun
03
2015
5

Perhaps that ‘Bush’ surname isn’t quite the ultimate political poison, after all.

This actually should not surprise anybody.

(more…)

May
23
2015
7

The Democrats heat up some leftovers for the 2016 Senate races.

Before we get into the meat of this story from the National Journal, let me just note that this – “One of the most underappreciated stories in recent years is the deterioration of the Democratic bench under President Obama’s tenure in office” – has always been properly appreciated by me.  I noticed this issue a while back.  Sorry, but I felt the need to establish that.

Moving on…

…less attention has been paid to how the shrinking number of Democratic officeholders in the House and in statewide offices is affecting the party’s Senate races. It’s awfully unusual to see how dependent Democrats are in relying on former losing candidates as their standard-bearers in 2016. Wisconsin’s Russ Feingold, Pennsylvania’s Joe Sestak, Indiana’s Baron Hill, and Ohio’s Ted Strickland all ran underwhelming campaigns in losing office in 2010—and are looking to return to politics six years later. Party officials are courting former Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina to make a comeback bid, despite mediocre favorability ratings and the fact that she lost a race just months ago that most had expected her to win. All told, more than half of the Democrats’ Senate challengers in 2016 are comeback candidates.

(more…)

May
03
2015
1

Martin O’Malley embraces his Baltimore albatross.

No! Really? Do tell:

No Democrat is having a harder time moving away from the tough-on-crime 90s than former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, whose potential presidential campaign has been plagued in the last week by questions over his policing policies as mayor of Baltimore. On Sunday, O’Malley continued to defend his record and said Baltimore would be the setting of his presidential campaign announcement if he decides to run.

The brutal truth of things is this: being tough on crime does indeed work.  If you are tough. Rudy Giuliani could make the streets safer in NYC because he had the grit to see the job done. Martin O’Malley just knew what were the things that one said, and when was the statistically best time to say them.  You simply cannot expect better from a progressive Democratic executive; which is what you get in Martin O’Malley, so that’s convenient, at least. (more…)

Apr
06
2015
6

Attention, ALL 2016 Presidential campaigns. Please film ALL your candidate’s ‘private’ appearances.

Because Jeb Bush has precisely the right idea, here.

[Jeb] Bush’s team has been quietly taping his private appearances in hopes of pushing back on false narratives dished by donors to reporters and to have a record to disprove any misinformation wafting from closed-door events.

“We want to have a full record of his comments,” said Tim Miller, a senior adviser to Bush’s Right to Rise PAC and the expected communications director for his expected presidential campaign. “Full information awareness.”

As the article notes, the idea here is to cut down on the number of incidents in 2016 where the media gets to spin an event without fear of contradiction. As the article also notes, the other idea here is to train the candidate into never treating an event as being off the record.  That charming conceit is as dead as leaded gasoline.  The sooner we all accept that, the happier we’re all going to be.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: I assume everyone understands that the Clinton campaign is too institutionally cowardly to set up something similar, right? – And that will cost them, at some point.  I say that, serene in the knowledge that they won’t listen to me.

Mar
29
2015
4

This is why the Democratic Establishment is still desperate to run Hillary Clinton.

One chart is all you need.  From NBC’s 2012 exit polls:

Dem % ’12 GOP % ’12 % Total
White men 35 62 34
White women 42 56 38
Black men 87 11 5
Black women 96 3 8
Latino men 65 33 5
Latino women 76 23 6
All other races 66 31 5

(more…)

Mar
09
2015
8

@NoahCRothman is an alright dude, but I can’t buy this ‘surprisingly’ bit.

OK, this I gotta push back on. From Hot Air:

Democrats ages 18 to 29, surprisingly, tend to disagree that the next Democratic nominee must pledge to continue down the course set by Obama. Those ages 30 to 44 strongly disagree with this assertion. Only 33 percent of Democratic voters in their 30s and early 40s think the next Democratic nominee must be an Obama Democrat. Similarly, voters who make less than $50,000 are not thrilled about a third term for Obama.

Bolding mine, and… why is this surprising?  Anybody who is going to be 18 in 2016 is going to be somebody who has spent the last eight years at school being fed federally-mandated slop that would start a prison riot.  That may not sound like a big deal to you, but then you haven’t been forced to eat that particular, nigh-literal, sh*t sandwich.

Gonna be an interesting tableau when the 2016 exit polls come in, let me tell you…

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