Bits like this make me smile.
But party insiders believe Democrats have a structural advantage regardless of who runs, due to demographic changes and the formerly red or purple states that have turned fully blue in recent years.
“Democrats start out with nearly a lock on 242 electoral votes, and Republicans start out with 102,” notes the second strategist. “They can win in a number of different ways, while Republicans have to win everything.” Beyond the numbers, Democrats believe deep down that today’s Republican Party is in such a mess that it will find a way to alienate voters no matter who runs on the Democratic side.
“There is a structural advantage for Democrats because Republicans just don’t get it,” says a third party insider.
…Because that is precisely the attitude that we had in 2005, and that the Democrats had in 1997, and that the Republicans had in 1991 after the First Gulf War, and so on, and so on. In other words, it is the attitude of political junkies who forget that there are very few very Blue, or very Red, states. Truth of the matter is, the big question in 2016 will be whether voters will or will not be sick of seeing the Democrats’ stupid faces every day in the White House section of the news*. This is whether or not the very bad candidate Hillary Clinton is the nominee, or the very bad and walking PR disaster Joe Biden is, or one of the rather parochial Democratic governors is, or one of their desperation candidates is. 2016 will be what we call a Return to Normalcy campaign in this business; the Democrats are not really positioned to win one of those.