Mar
31
2014
5

This is defeat, Democrats: you probably should have avoided it.

This fascinates me: “For the third election cycle, Democrats are still debating their options for handling the political fall-out from passage of the Affordable Care Act: fight, flight or finesse.” And it fascinates me because there are no options. The Democrats made a big bet in 2009 that they could ram the law through first, then justify it later. They lost that bet; and now come the consequences.

Can individual Democrats survive? Sure… in the House, and in the safer parts of the Senate.  But the most viable position – I screwed up, and if you re-elect me, I will vote with the Republicans to repeal Obamacare – is also absolutely anathema to the Democratic establishment.  To be fair, there’s a reason for that.  The Democratic party has gone all-in on this issue; and if the national cadre can just hold on then eventually the Democratic party will recover, once all the old bodies are removed and a new crop of politicians from the state party apparatuses are brought in. As institutions, both the Democrats and the Republicans profit mightily from inertia*; the Democratic establishment is kind of counting on that right now. (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: , ,
Feb
28
2014
--

Health whispers about Hillary Clinton.

Always hard to tell how much of this is true, how much of this is BS, and how much is BS that also happens to be true, but for completely unrelated reasons.

If you listen to the chattering class in Washington, D.C., Hillary Clinton is a virtual certainty for the 2016 Democratic nomination, and the front runner in the next presidential race.

But in private, rumors persist that the former Secretary of State may not even be capable of making it to Iowa and New Hampshire. Clinton, these skeptics often say, will not run for president again because of health concerns.

(more…)

Feb
28
2014
7

Joe Biden is so totally running in 2016. And that’s a problem for the Democrats.

Fascinating Politico article here about Joe Biden and his desire to run in 2016.  Here is the basic problem, in a nutshell: Hillary Clinton is more or less qualified to be President* – or, at least, the Democratic nominee for President – but she is a horrible campaigner and nobody likes her.  People like Joe Biden, and he is better at the entire campaigning thing.  However: by the time 2016 rolls around “close to the Obama administration” is not going to be a selling point in the general election… and while both Clinton and Biden severely suffer from that problem, Biden suffers from it a heck of a lot more. (more…)

Feb
22
2014
2

@Slate, heal thyself.

It’s not that I don’t object to the sentiment (i.e., that we’re starting the 2016 campaign too early and obsessively focusing on things)…

irony-slate

…it’s just that Slate is pretty much an integral part of the problem. Mote, beam, eye, you know the drill. (more…)

Feb
14
2014
6

My answer to “Is Hillary too old to run?”

Like Allahpundit and Charlie Cook I agree that Hillary Clinton is likely but not guaranteed to run; unlike either I am not convinced that she’s necessarily the front-runner. Typically people who are called the front-runner in these things are not… as Hillary Clinton herself might have ruefully told people in 2008. She actually has three things working against her:

  • Her health is indeed an issue.  A big one; and it will only become more of one as Hillary Clinton gets older*.
  • She is in fact inextricably linked to the Obama administration.  This will be neutralized in the primary to a large degree if Joe Biden also runs – he’d be even more linked to the Obama administration** – but if Obama’s numbers continue on the same trajectory that they’re on now then by fall of 2016 ‘part of Barack Obama’s Cabinet’ is not going to be a resume enhancer. (more…)
Feb
11
2014
13

#Obamacare reminder: what goes around, comes around. Like, in 2017.

Put another way: while this is obnoxious

By now ObamaCare’s proliferating delays, exemptions and administrative retrofits are too numerous to count, most of them of dubious legality. The text of the Affordable Care Act specifically says when the mandate must take effect—”after December 31, 2013″—and does not give the White House the authority to change the terms.

Changing an unambiguous statutory mandate requires the approval of Congress, but then this President has often decided the law is whatever he says it is.

(more…)

Nov
23
2013
3

The Bloom is off the Unicorn: party donors starting to look ahead past @barackobama.

I imagine these last two paragraphs probably burns the administration.  It burns them like hygiene*:

Still, party fundraisers said that it has been hard to get major contributors jazzed about writing checks to the DNC. They are more intrigued with 2016 and whether Hillary Rodham Clinton will make another White House run.

“I get dozens of inquiries from donors who say, ‘I want to get in early with Hillary,’ ” said a prominent party fundraiser. “A lot of the donors are starting to look past this administration to the next one.”

(more…)

Nov
23
2013
45

If the 2016 primary comes down to Christie versus Walker, we will have done well.

There are other good combos, of course.

This observation by Allahpundit over the Christie/Walker dynamic in the primaries is worth noting:

One crucial thing that righties learned about [Scott] Walker during and after the Thunderdome in Madison over collective bargaining is that the guy simply will not bend on a policy he believes in, no matter how much acid the left spits at him and how far into the tank the media goes for Democrats in attacking him. He’s unflappable. That’s hugely significant when you’re thinking of throwing your vote to a guy who isn’t the most orthodox conservative in the field. The big worry about [Chris] Christie is that he’ll be wooed by media adulation of his charisma and his own rhetoric about the glories of compromise into governing even further from the center than people think. That’s less of a worry with Walker, the guy who became a right-wing rock star precisely because he wouldn’t compromise.

(more…)

Nov
11
2013
10

Rooting for Injuries Watch: Hillary versus Warren.

Depressingly, I have to agree with Ben Domenech here*:

Even if [Elizabeth Warren] ultimately runs, I’m far more skeptical about Warren’s ability to actually beat the Hillary machine, in part because of the differences and similarities between the last inspiring progressive Senator who stole Hillary’s rightful place on the throne. The Obama nomination came out of nowhere – the explosion of an organic internet-driven fundraising challenger to the Clinton machine fueled in part by dramatic hopes for history-making achievement combined with a thriving cult of personality – and is unlikely to be replicated with Warren, who has nowhere near that kind of appeal nor the apparent ambition to go after the party establishment directly. That’s how she’s different. (more…)

Sep
22
2013
9

Hillary Clinton: Homewrecker?

If so… well.  And they wonder why Hillary Clinton lost the nomination in 2008.

Top Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin has been given an ultimatum: dump serial-sexting hubby Anthony Weiner, or get out of Clintontown.

“Huma has a choice to make,” a close associate tells New York magazine. “Does she go with Anthony, or does she go with Hillary?”

Abedin’s decision over whether to leave the “Clinton bubble,” where she’s seen as Hillary’s most trusted aide, has emerged as “the biggest question among Hillary’s circle” as the former Secretary of State mulls a 2016 run for the White House, the magazine reports.

(more…)

Sep
06
2013
9

No, @GovMikeHuckabee: do not run for President.

Since he is asking. He will have been out of office for a decade by the time 2016 rolls around; we will have a good number of Republican governors who are, frankly, fresher than Mike Huckabee would be at that point.

I normally would suggest that Huckabee run for governor again; but Arkansas has term limits with a vengeance. I don’t have any advice for him, sorry.

Aug
21
2013
9

Quote of the Day, SING It, Brother @JonahNRO! edition.

Brother Jonah contemplates the likelihood of a Joe Biden Presidential run:

Why is this happening?

It’s a difficult question to boil down to a single variable, given the swirling maelstrom of egos, agendas, and issues at play. Still, one answer does seem to cover the waterfront: because ours is a just and generous God. From my admittedly selfish perspective, a Biden candidacy would be great for everybody — and by everybody I mean people who would like to see the Democratic party descend into a chaotic food fight.

They’re great fun to watch from the outside, yeah.  Especially since whoever wins will be stuck with simultaneously apologizing for, defending, and keeping an arm’s-length distance away from every policy made during this administration*. Can’t wait.

Moe Lane

*Which is to say: the situation in 2016 will be remarkably different from the one in 2008.  At least, for Democrats.  For Republicans, it will be  remarkably similar, except of course for the lack of vultures on our shoulders and terrifying portents in the skies and giant basalt, non-Euclidean cities rising out of the South Pacific and so forth.  I’m still fond of GWB, mind you – but oh, my, but that turned out to be one heck of an electoral cross to bear.

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