Moe Lane

Because statewide elections matter. 

Executive summary: the new legislation now requires people filling out provisional ballots from lack of acceptable ID at the polling station “to subsequently submit identification to the electoral board if they want their vote to be counted.”  The list of acceptable forms of ID was also expanded to include things like current utility bills and valid student IDs, which will no doubt raise eyebrows among people familiar with voter fraud; but making voters responsible for verifying their own provisional ballots is a pretty important step.

Naturally, agents of the Left (like Anna Scholl of ProgressVA) are livid about this legislation passing.  As usual, they’re taking the (heavily racist) position that black people are too stupid to remember to bring their voter registration card, Social Security card, driver’s license, state college ID, employee photo ID, utility bill, bank statement, government check, and/or paycheck to the polling station*. Or perhaps Scholl simply doesn’t believe that black people have any of those things: it’s been my experience that hardcore progressive activists are often suffering from raging cases of epistemic closure… (more…)

That’s one potential conclusion that you can draw from today’s and yesterday’s Quinnipiac polls looking at Virginia political conditions.  Admittedly, they’re just one firm’s polls; also admittedly, anyone likely to be reading this is a hardcore political junky anyway, so we might as well take a look.

Yesterday’s Q-poll looked at Governor McDonnell’s popularity rating*, which is – to be modest about it – practically off of the charts at 61/21.  Those numbers represent a 67/17 favorable rating with independents, a barely underwater 39/40 among Democrats… and a 46/32 favorable rating with African-American voters, which presumably should have people perking up at this point – not that it would last long in a hypothetical 2012 Presidential election contest against Obama, of course.  Still, ablative armor is still armor, and the unique nature of Virginia’s gubernatorial situation applies here.  Bob McDonnell can’t run again for Governor in 2013 any which way anyway; and even an unsuccessful Vice Presidential run would not necessarily stop him from running for Senate in 2014, should Mark Warner (who is also very popular in Virginia) decide that he’d rather run for Governor again in 2013.  Or even if Senator Warner decides to stay in the Senate, for that matter. (more…)

… (so sayeth Jim Geraghty, at least) at the way that Maryland probably will have to raise taxes to fix its budget shortfall, while Virginia will instead be trying to decide what to do with its budget surplus*: but as a Maryland resident I am finding that I don’t quite find the joke all that funny.  Particularly since Governor Martin O’Malley (D) is apparently planning to go for raising the gas tax again; which is to say, something unimaginative and counter-productive.

(pause)

Well, as above: so below.

Moe Lane

*I cannot wait for Tim Kaine to run for Senate next year, by the way.  I absolutely cannot wait.  And may O’Malley end up doing for Maryland and the DGA what Kaine did for Virginia and the DNC.

Interesting article here in the WaPo about privatizing Virginia liquor stores – although the Washington Bob McDonnell’s Thesis should accept that they lost the election, and stop being childish by using unflattering pictures of the Governor* – but the really interesting bit was possibly the comments section of the Fark entry where I saw it first.  Ever hear that old rule-of-thumb that the more you care about a particular topic, the more conservative you are about it?  Yeah, apparently Fark readers care a hell of a lot about distilled liquor.

No, I’m not judging.  I am, in fact, somewhat heartened.  Now if we can just get them caring about entitlement spending with the same intensity…

Moe Lane

*Who, yes, shouldn’t have had that one see the light of day.  Ever.

They were asked why they didn’t bring in former Governor Sarah Palin to campaign for them in Virginia & New Jersey, and both of them made what are entirely excusable fibs about scheduling conflicts and the need to stay focused on state-specific problems.  Come, I will hide nothing from you: they didn’t bring her in because both of them concluded that her reputation had taken a hit and had not recovered enough.

Yet.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Doing what, you ask?  Bless your heart, who cares?  I’m sure that the Governor-elect will find something for him to do.

In the short term, [Current VA Senate Majority Leader] Saslaw’s challenge will be to hold his party’s 21 seats. McDonnell might try to tip the balance of power in the Senate by luring a Democrat in a vulnerable district into his administration.

One key senator Friday did not rule out the possibility of accepting such an offer. Sen. Edward Houck (D-Spotsylvania) , a longtime school administrator who was considered for secretary of education under both Kaine and Warner, said he would be willing to discuss an administration job.

“I would certainly be willing to talk to the governor-elect and his staff about whatever they want to talk about,” he said. “I’m not looking for that, I’m not seeking that, but I’m willing to talk to them about anything.”

Via NotLarrySabato, who is inexplicably not as happy about this act of potential bipartisanship and outreach as the rest of us.  Of course, it’s not as fun when it’s the other side doing it to you.

Moe Lane

[UPDATE]: Welcome, Instapundit readers.

It’s because of this question, and the answers.

17. Can you name one good reason that someone should vote for your opponent?

DEEDS: [Long pause] You know, I can name you a thousand good reasons why they should vote for me. I’m the best-prepared person to be the next governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. … Bob is a guy that I’ve always gotten along with, but I get along with most people. I work hard to get along with people. I don’t agree with Bob on a great deal.

McDONNELL: He’s a good family man. He’s worked hard to represent his district well for 18 years. To me, he’s a good story of somebody living and accessing the American dream. You know, he tells the story about … first guy in his family to go to college with four $20 [bills] in his pocket and now he’s competing for the job held by Thomas Jefferson and Patrick Henry. To me, that’s a great story. I think there’s a hundred reasons why I’d be a better governor than him, but for the way, and this is his own personal life story, the way he has told it — it obviously happened because of tremendous hard work, tremendous perseverance to be able to get to the level that he is at, and I think that’s very admirable.

Slightly contra Jim Geraghty, it’s not that Bob McDonnell can sincerely compliment his opponent; it’s that Creigh Deeds doesn’t dare.

Moe Lane

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor. No time to stop now.

Crossposted to RedState.

(Via @mattklewis) I would take it as a personal favor from the Left if they would [verb deleted*] Mudcat Saunders. He’s very unhappy about the upcoming Democratic abandonment of Virginia – to the point where he’s obviously indifferent to the fact that he’s openly cussing to CNN about how stupid both the administration and the national Democratic party is being right now.  Usually all of this happens after the election, but then: there’s a reason why the title of this post is DOOMWatch.

Possibly the best part of the article – if not the most profane – is this paragraph:

“It’s a godd[*]mn shame when our center of government, the White House, won’t talk on the record. I discount all of it,” Saunders said of the Post article. “It’s a lack of courage. And it goes against transparency that Obama told us last year was going to come out of the White House. Anybody who makes anonymous quotes out of the White House should be fired.”

Remember. Democrat, saying that about Democrats.

Moe Lane

*Not for reasons of profanity: it’s merely that I don’t expect Democrats to do as I say, so I might as well let them look to their own judgment about what to do next. This strategy has paid dividends in Virginia so far, after all.

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor.

Crossposted to RedState.

From the Politico, on Democratic ‘help’ in that campaign:

Indeed, the event in a Tysons Corner office building about 10 miles from Washington was a vivid illustration of the powerful downward dynamic that often affects campaigns once they start to take on the scent of death.

Via the Corner.

Moe Lane

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor.  The election isn’t over yet.

Crossposted to RedState.

When the trailing candidate’s campaign starts talking about GOTV as the primary strategy for victory, it’s over.

…the question that remains unanswered is whether they can prevail in a campaign in which Virginia’s many independent voters have turned against the national Democratic brand and with a nominee who many in the party privately believe has run a mediocre race.

The answer will be revealed on Election Night when the returns come in from northern Virginia, and particularly Fairfax County, the commonwealth’s largest jurisdiction. The Deeds campaign believes it needs to carry the region with at least 55 percent to win the election and at least approach the 60 percent threshold that recent Democratic candidates have captured in populous Fairfax.

As for turnout, the hope is to push the percentage of northern Virginia’s vote from 33 percent of the statewide electorate to above 35 percent.

I am a little surprised that this post can be written now, though: I had it scheduled for some time around the 29th.  Obviously, turnout is very important; but it’s usually not until about a week or so before the actual election that losing campaigns start using it as a tool to backstop eroding enthusiasm.  Seeing this happen this early suggests that Virginia Democrats are worrying about the downticket races.

Moe Lane

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor. Because it’s not over until it’s over.

PPS: The big question for Chris Christie in NJ isn’t turnout for him; it’s whether Daggett’s going to break double-digits on Election Day (at this moment, this question makes the difference between a 1-point win for Christie, and probably a 3-point one).  Which I’ll believe when I see it.

Crossposted to RedState.

He asked for the President; he got the Cubslayer.

Gore coming to Va. for Deeds

Former Vice President Al Gore will be coming to Virginia on Friday to give a last-minute boost to the Democratic candidate for governor, Creigh Deeds, a party source said.

Gore will headline a private fundraiser in McLean at the home of longtime Democratic supporters Al and Claire Dwoskin.

But surely this doesn’t necessarily mean…

Obama in Virginia, But Not For Deeds

President Obama is in Fairfax County today.

But not to campaign for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds.

Snap!

Instead, Obama visits the Fairfax County Parkway extension today with Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood to talk about federal stimulus spending.

Ah.

Well.

Moe Lane

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor.

Crossposted to RedState.

(Via Hot Air) The Democrats in this Politico piece about former Gov. Palin and the VA/NJ races are spouting nonsense about her long term appeal, of course* – they’re aware as I am that she’s going to be very much in demand in Congressional races where the Democratic incumbent is holding down a seat in a district that McCain or Bush won.  Of which there are quite a few; but Democratic strategists can perhaps not be blamed for not wanting to say something along the lines of ‘Well, THAT WOMAN is going to go through all those Southern/Western Blue-on-Red districts like a buzz-saw, so you might as well get used to it.’  The people who need to hear that most will want to hear it least.

That being said, I don’t expect her to participate in the NJ gubernatorial election, although VA’s may yet still see a presence if the McDonnell campaign goes sour.  Virginia’s at best lightly purple, even now; New Jersey’s pretty definitely blue.  Christie doesn’t have a margin for taking chances right now.

Moe Lane

*As might be perhaps witnessed by interest in her book, which is currently at #3 on Amazon after spending over a week at #1. And that was individual pre-order.

Crossposted to RedState.