#rsrh Hold up: NY-09 NOT going away if Turner wins?

That’s what Stuart Rothenberg is hearing, at least:

Democrats argue that losing this seat would force them to eliminate a different Democratic seat when the Legislature draws new lines later this year or next in addition to making the redrawn 13th district (Staten Island/Brooklyn) more Republican.

“This isn’t about one seat. It’s about two or three. The party’s $500,000 investment is insurance for the delegation, not for Weprin,” one Democratic insider insisted.

Continue reading #rsrh Hold up: NY-09 NOT going away if Turner wins?

#rsrh Don Surber, Turner/Weprin & the Ground Zero Mosque.

Don raises an interesting point: if supporting the Ground Zero Mosque was such a no-brainer, then why are Democrats getting so bent out of shape about Bob Turner (R) pointing out that Dave Weprin (D) enthusiastically supported it being built?

Don already knows the answer, of course:

If supporting the building of the mosque is the right thing to do, why not stand by those words that were said 13 months ago? Oh wait, that high-moral-ground stand might cost Democrats a seat in Congress. So what liberals are saying is that they are willing to stand up for unpopular causes — unless doing what they say is right may cost them a few votes.

Continue reading #rsrh Don Surber, Turner/Weprin & the Ground Zero Mosque.

PPP (D) Poll: Turner (R)/Welprin (D) 47/41 in NY-09.

:ahem: DOOM.

PPP spells it out, and it’s good news for Republican Bob Turner.

Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support.  He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party.  And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

PPP goes on to blame the President for this one (both candidates have positive favorable ratings, although Bob Turner’s is notably better).  To give you an idea of how bad things are for Obama in NY-09, check this out: “Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.”  It would seem that President Obama is highly unpopular with orthodox Jewish voters (Turner leads 56/39) and people who care about Israel (Turner leads there 71/22) right now.  Go figure.

So… I am going to go out on a limb, here:


Moe Lane

PS: Bob Turner for NY-09.  DOOM or not, no time to get cocky.

#rsrh The DOOM that came to NY-09?

It’s always hard to judge special election prospects from the polls, but if the teaser that Democratic pollster Tom Jensen put out on September 8th plays out tonight at 11 PM, it might be enough for the coveted DOOM tag for Dave Weprin.

Well, possibly not coveted by Weprin.  We’ll see tonight: I should update this post then.  Unless I don’t.

Moe Lane

PS: Bob Turner for NY-09.

#rsrh Davey [Weprin]* running from Bob Turner AND Barack Obama?

That takes skill.

This is the NY-09 special election, which is starting to freak Democrats out in precisely the manner that past NY special elections freaked Republicans out, and for the same reason: watching a campaign slide slooooooooowly off of the beam, despite your best efforts, has a certain ‘cosmic terror’ feel to it.  Anyway, you already knew that [Weprin]* ducked and ran from a debate last week; but what you may not have heard is that [Weprin]* is trying to disassociate himself from the President*.  Apparently, Obama’s not doing all that great in NY-09 these days.

Via Jammie Wearing Fool, who also notes that [Weprin]* is more than happy to take Organizing for America’s help.  Just as long as they stay at the back of the bus, of course.

Bob Turner for NY-09.

Moe Lane

*He’s also allegedly trying to get people into Bob Turner’s campaign… which the[Weprin]* campaign denied in one of the most perfunctory and subdued denials in recent NY political history.

[*Oops! Fixed.]

Turner/Weprin tie in NY-09?

The Hill reports that a GOP-commissioned poll for the special election to replace disgraced Anthony Weiner in NY-09 shows a tie.  I was able to get my hands on a copy of the poll results, and the numbers are encouraging: 42/42 split between Republican Bob Turner and Democrat David Welpern (+7 for Turner, -1 for Welpern from July results); 300 likely voters; 24/60/15 Republican/Democratic/Independent voter sample (21/35/33 liberal/moderate/conservative).  That R/D/I number looks about what Siena was finding, which suggests that the sample isn’t skewed too horribly.

Usual caveats apply: it’s not an independent poll.  Still, if you couple this with the Daily News’ endorsement of Republican Bob Turner over Democrat David Welpern (the Daily News is fairly reliably Democratic in its endorsements), and of course the earlier Siena poll from a few weeks ago that showed Welpern seriously under-performing, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that maybe there’s a certain amount of brand damage going on here for the Democrats. Continue reading Turner/Weprin tie in NY-09?

David Weprin (D-CAND, NY-09) cuts and runs from Monday’s debate.

This is, of course, the special election called for NY-09; the seat was vacated after incumbent Democrat Anthony Weiner got caught showing his to his Twitter followers.  There was supposed to be a debate tonight, but it’s been canceled at the last secondBob Turner‘s (the Republican candidate) campaign is calling said cancellation ‘hiding‘ – which is what I’d call it, myself.

Weprin is blaming Hurricane Tropical Storm Irene for the cancellation (I’ll let New Yorkers on the scene decide whether that’s a legitimate excuse), but there’s widespread suspicion that the real reason that Weprin is dodging the debate is because there’s only one real answer to the question “Why did you think that the national debt’s only four trillion, Davey?” – and that’s “Because David Weprin thinks that the universe started on January 20, 2009*.” Continue reading David Weprin (D-CAND, NY-09) cuts and runs from Monday’s debate.

#rsrh QotD, NY Democrats, You Have A Problem edition.

Which is to say, they have the Republican candidate in NY-09’s special election (Bob Turner) being comfortable enough to say stuff like this – about himself:

“Suddenly,” Mr. Turner said of voters, “they are faced with the most brilliant, dynamic, charismatic, Scott Brownesque candidate,” referring to the Massachusetts senator. Or, he added, people are so angry with the president “that they can put up some tired old guy with no political experience and he could actually win.”

“You can pick your poison,” he said. “I suspect that behind it is a great deal of discontent in the district.”

I imagine so, myself. It’s still a tough district to win for the GOP… but oddly enough, Democratic voters in NY-09 apparently may not be pleased with a political party whose members have been known to forward pictures of their genitalia to young women. Much like Republican voters in NY-26 apparently were not pleased with a political party whose members have been known to advertise (shirtless, no less) for adultery on Craigslist.  But when you put it that way then people find it harder to find a deeper meaning in any random Congressional election.

Meet Bob Turner (R-CAND, NY-09).

Bob is running in the special election called to replace Rep. Weiner after, well, delicacy prohibits me from finishing that sentence in the way that it deserves. Anyway, the election in question is next month, and is already surprisingly close, this early out.  Turner’s Democratic opponent David Weprin is only leading 48/42 in the latest Siena poll, which frankly demonstrates a startlingly weak lead in a district that Siena found to be 61% Democratic: couple that with Turner getting both Ed Koch’s and Rudy Giuliani’s endorsement, and we have ourselves a race here.  We talked about that a bit:

Bob’s site is here.

Moe Lane (crosspost)