Prognostications about the upcoming midterm election are coming fast and furious. The bullishness about the Democrats’ prospects, so frequently expressed (and exaggerated) during the government shutdown, is gone. Current forecasts typically range from “a midterm headache for Democrats” to possibly even another Republican wave. But at this moment, what’s most likely is something less dramatic, at least as far as the House of Representatives is concerned. An early version of this blog’s forecasting model suggests that there will be only a small shift in House seats in 2014 — one more likely to advantage Republicans than Democrats, but one that will fall far short of a wave.
…and if you think about it you’ll see why. In 2006 and 2008 the Democrats more or less eliminated every at-risk Republican in the House of Representatives. In 2010 we returned the favor, and then some. In 2012 the redistricting wars shook loose some seats on both sides. (more…)