PPP: McDonnell/Deeds 51/37.

Looks like Obama’s campaign schedule is pretty much clear for the rest of the year.

[UPDATE] Gah!  It’s like a glitch in my brain.  McDonnell, McDonnell, McDonnell.

That was the response of one of my colleagues from the news that McDonnell has taken a commanding lead in the VA race (and the news that Christie continues to dominate Corzine); while there’s still three months to go before the election, and while Deeds did win the primary despite being the underdog, these numbers aren’t good for the Democrats.  They are also roughly similar to last weeks SurveyUSA poll, which PPP itself notes:

The problem is all in who’s motivated and planning to turn out- McCain supporters are at a considerably higher rate than Obama’s, and that means a healthy McDonnell lead.

Last week I was skeptical of SurveyUSA’s poll showing an electorate that voted for John McCain 52-43…but we actually found it at a 52-41 McCain advantage.

None of this should be surprising: it’s an off-election year, the President will not be on the ticket, the economy is widely and accurately considered to be awful, and the current ruling parties of both states are widely and accurately seen to be part of the problem. Deed’s specific problem is that he got the nomination by not being Moran or McAuliffe… which wouldn’t have been a problem at all if the VA GOP hadn’t decided to run somebody credible. But the VA GOP did, and now comes the unseemly scramble on the Democrats’ side to hold the governorship. Continue reading PPP: McDonnell/Deeds 51/37.

McDonnell/Deeds 55/40, curse it.

[Another UPDATE]: Yeah, yeah, yeah: I mucked the name up thoroughly.  Sue me.

I say ‘curse it’ because if McDonnell had been just one point lower the title could have been

McDonnell/Deeds: 54/40, no fight.

Anyway, more details here (via @PatrickRuffini). August should prove interesting…

Moe Lane

PS: McDonnell for Governor. Contribute here.

Crossposted to RedState.

With a day to go in the Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial Primary…

the carpetbagger from New York and the brother of the anti-Semite are falling behind the guy who keeps hitting people with his car. PPP’s poll is especially good news for the Guy With The Car’s campaign, but it’ll probably still be a nail-biter for the Other side tomorrow.  Unless another six polls come out that confirm PPP’s, of course.  Or turnout exceeds the five percent estimated for tomorrow’s primary.

Jim Geraghty (who originally provided a version of the above snark, by the way) has more; he thinks that the Guy With The Car can give GOP candidate Bob McDonnell a good run for his money.  He certainly doesn’t think that the Brother To The Anti-Semite is going to pull this one off (and that’s a shame, particularly if said Anti-Semite gets indicted this summer).  Guess we’ll see…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

The Democratic Virginia primary continues to not surprise.

(Via Jen Rubin) With two weeks left in the Virginia Democratic primary, the failed DNC chairman from New York is still ahead of both the corrupt brother of an anti-Semite and the guy who keeps hitting people with his car (thanks, Jim Geraghty), but the guy with the car is coming up fast:

Raleigh, N.C. – The only candidate who has moved forward in the last two and a half weeks in the Virginia Democratic contest for Governor is Creigh Deeds, but Terry McAuliffe continues to hold a solid overall lead.
McAuliffe is at 29%, followed by Brian Moran and Deeds tied at 20%. PPP’s most recent previous poll had McAuliffe at 30%, Moran at 20%, and Deeds with 14%.

Meanwhile, the brother to the anti-Semite and the guy with the car are both going after the failed DNC chair, presumably because they’re worried that Bob McDonnell may not have been keeping proper notes, or something. Continue reading The Democratic Virginia primary continues to not surprise.