Jun
11
2014
8

The NRCC lines itself up behind Dave Brat.

No doubt much to the disappointment of people looking and hoping for a bloody internal fight over the district, the NRCC is playing  it straight:

“Eric Cantor has been a steadfast leader for our party, and a great friend and mentor for so many House Republicans. I know Eric will continue to lead on the issues he cares so deeply about. Virginia families have selected Republican David Brat to represent them in Congress. I congratulate him on his victory and look forward to working with him in Congress.” – NRCC Chairman Greg Walden

Moving forward: it’s a R+10 district, and it’s unlikely to flip.  Cook Political Report: “Virginia’s 7th CD is very heavily Republican: GOP presidential nominee won it 57 percent to 42 percent in 2012. So even Brat, who attacked Cantor from the right on immigration and debt ceiling politics, doesn’t change our Solid Republican rating here.” I note this because I want to make sure that people understand that if the fundamentals of the race don’t change – i.e., that there’s no significant chance that the seat will flip – then the national organizations will actually have no reason to put in increased resources for the race.  As it stands right now the Democratic party is not showing any signs of seriously contesting the seat: their hastily-chosen candidate has no money, no staff – and no promises of meaningful support. If that changes, the NRCC will no doubt reassess; but as it stands now Dave Brat is in a good enough position without further investment.

Simple as that.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Jun
10
2014
23

So… Eric Cantor loses to Dave Brat in VA-07.

I’m not going to even remotely pretend that I’m not flabbergasted. I did not see that coming. Fortunately, I also stayed out of the dang primary, as near as I can remember. One thing to be surprised; it’s another to tuck into a big dinner of crow.

A couple of observations. First two:

And the third is that everybody’s going to have an answer on why this happened; but some of those answers are going to be a little bit of a stretch. For example: the Democrats barely have a candidate for this race (they got this guy picked by the local committee and now have to get him established on the ballot), which suggests that shenanigans by the Democrats were, at best, ad hoc. I would have had a state senator or representative prepped and ready to go.

So, basically, it could just simply be that the voters have chosen. Like they’re supposed to, you know, do.

Moe Lane

PS: Needless to say: Dave Brat for VA-07.

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