The Taiwanese Animated Video People have been apprised of the situation.
Via the indispensable Ace of Spades HQ.
Greg Sargent actually writes something that’s moderately aware of objective reality. On President Obama’s upcoming rhetorical response to his upcoming thumping:
So look for [Obama] to seek the moral high ground by calling on Republicans to meet him on some sort of ideologically undefined but temperamentally soothing “common ground,” rather than calling on them to meet him in the “center.” Of course, what really matters is what Obama and Republicans actually do next year, not what they say they’re going to do. And they’re going to be at war.
Yup! It’s going to be a blast.
It did not age well. Oh, my, did it not age well.
(Via Battle ’10) Although I suspect that the participants in said video would bitterly argue my observation, assuming that any of them are sober at this moment. No, wait, it’s 8 AM on the Left Coast; they won’t start the anticipatory heavy drinking until about 1 PM my time.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
PPS: Hey! If politics is Hollywood for the ugly, does that mean that Hollywood is politics for the stupid? (more…)
Rather than walk you through the latest changes – short version is that the sliding of the Democratic party’s House members into the abyss is operating more or less on schedule – I’d thought that I’d show you just how bad an election cycle it’s been for the Other Side. Here’s the House [UPDATE: the 2008 entries in each case are the first Cook surveys of the 2010 election cycle]:
This may be the penultimate DOOMList from Cook with regard to the House: it’s the Friday before the election and there’s just not much time left for tracking the ongoing Democratic party’s synchronized mass career implosion. Which is not to say that more extinction events won’t occur, but there’s a limit to how fast Cook can write them down.
|Boyd||FL-02||Lean R||Steve Southerland|
|Marshall||GA-08||Lean R||Austin Scott|
|Frank||MA-04||Lean D||Sean Bielat|
|Pingree||ME-01||Lean D||Dean Scontras|
|Open||TN-08||Likely R||Stephen Fincher|
|Ortiz||TX-27||Lean D||Blake Farenthold|
I mildly regret to say that the latest readjustments included three that favored the Democratic party – two of which were to the benefit of Democratic incumbents. It is regrettable to see any Democrat slip from our fingers, of course… but looking at the list above, I think that we’ll all bear up under the crushing disappointment, somehow. Particularly if Barney Frank continues to spiral inward…
Moe Lane (crosspost)
This week’s adjustment by Cook is not that extensive, but it’s a doozy:
|MA-06||John Tierney||Bill Hudak|
|NJ-06||Frank Pallone||Anna Little|
|NC-04||David Price||BJ Lawson|
|OH-10||Dennis Kuchinich||Peter Corrigan|
|OR-04||Peter DeFazio||Art Robinson|
|TN-05||Jim Cooper||David Hall|
|TX-25||Lloyd Doggett||Donna Campbell|
Those are all formerly-safe races that are now abruptly… not-safe. They’ve all gone from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic, but this kind of movement is consistent with a continuing drift towards the GOP side. It would be interesting to see what the Toss-Up and Lean Republican totals would look like right now if Cook was less conservative about assigning incumbents to the latter. Also: look at some of those names. There are some heavy hitters on the Democratic side on that list, and they’re even now being told the bad news. Will a week be enough time to topple them?
I don’t know. Let’s find out.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
The actual title isn’t that, of course. The actual title is “Democrats Counting on Strength of Obama’s Get-Out-the-Vote Network“… which is merely semantically equivalent to the word/phrase/meme “DOOM.” If you’re “counting on” getting enough voters out there to erase your own, admitted failure to be the perceived front-runner, then you’ve already lost and you’re just trying to avoid a rout*. Thus it was for the Republican party in 2008 and 2006; and thus it was for the Democratic party in 2004 and 2002. In all four cycles the afflicted party spoke of last minute GOTV pushes and the base coming home and whatever sudden wild hope erupted in the last week before the polls opened, while the party that was ahead collectively smirked and resolutely declined to remember when they did the exact same thing. Admittedly, it’s great fun to watch, assuming of course if it’s not happening to you.
However. WE CAN STILL LOSE. So if you can vote early and haven’t, do that today. And vote a straight ticket. Governor, Lt. Governor, state-wide offices, Senate, House, state House, state Senate, county officials, judges, sheriffs, sewer commissioner, town executives, dog-catcher ,or even coroner (if you live in Louisiana). Clean house. The more states we control next January, the more states we can keep the Democrats from implementing the redistricting plots that they are undoubtedly plotting right this second (gerrymandering schemes are a hobby for their activists, or perhaps ‘fetish’ would be a better word); plus, every Democrat unceremoniously booted from lower office is a Democrat who is no longer going to be advancing up the ladder for higher office**. And, of course, the more Republicans we elect the better our bench gets.
Benjamin Sarlin has compiled a list of… well, five signs of DOOM: by his and my count we’ve hit four of them. The fifth (We Totally Meant To Lose Anyway) will probably hit in force after the next time Cook and/or Rothenberg update their list of Democrats whose staffers need to update their resumes and/or start shredding the paperwork in anticipation of Darrell Issa’s 2011 Investigation-O-Rama.
But I’d add a sixth: GOTV Will Save Us! It’s an old crowd favorite, mostly because it’s not necessarily untrue. GOTV can save you. It never does, but it can.
Yes. That Chris Matthews. Matthews apparently did not personally approve of the way that Jack Conway smeared Rand Paul with a recent scurrilous ad, and so took the opportunity to smack Conway around for over seven minutes of pretty much relentless, aggressive interviewing.
Yes, again: that Chris Matthews. As I remarked just now on Twitter, watching this was like watching Jack Conway get mauled by a Teletubbie.
H/T: Erick Erickson, on Twitter.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
PS: Rand Paul for Senate.
PPS: I believe that the DSCC may now start transferring money out of that race with a clear conscience.
For one brief – very brief – moment this morning the RCP forecast for the Senate (based on the rolling polling average, no Toss-ups) was at +10 GOP. It then dropped down to +8 and then stabilized at +9. Which is where it’s been for the last couple of days.
In and of itself? Meaningless. The polling average mechanism is merely a data point, and one whose meaning is often argued – particularly now, three weeks before the election. But it is three weeks before the election, and it is possible to argue with a straight face that the GOP has a chance at flipping the Senate. There were damn few people out there even six months ago who thought that such a thing was possible, and even fewer that were even willing to admit to the possibility in public.
For those who don’t know: Charlie Cook is one of the more respected political handicappers out there, with a solid reputation for accurate forecasting. I can personally attest to that, given that in 2008 I glumly used his site to assist me in the task of watching things spiral downward for the GOP. As you can imagine, the 2010 election cycle has been a lot more enjoyable in that regard: and never so much so as recently, when Charlie Cook broke a rule.
You see, he doesn’t like to rate incumbents in trouble as being more in trouble than “Toss-Up.” It’s a reasonable restriction, given that incumbency remains a powerful advantage for candidates, even when they’re in trouble – and Charlie Cook followed that rule back in 2008; even at the end of October of 2008, the only non-open seats that made it past the cut-off line were Tim Mahoney (D), who had just been discovered (if I remember correctly) to have used campaign money to pay off a mistress; and Tom Feeney (R), who was… Tom Feeney, really. In other words: in a bad year for incumbent Republicans, Cook unbent enough to call two beforehand.
Cook is already forecasting twelve, this cycle.
There is no question that Democrats have their backs to the wall. It’s unprecedented to see so many incumbents running behind their challengers.
While the Cook Political Report has a general policy of not putting unindicted incumbents in categories worse than our “Toss Up” column, which is akin to the critical ward of a hospital, we are now looking at moving a dozen or so Democratic House incumbents into the Lean Republican column..
[UPDATE]: Welcome, Instapundit readers.
We’re not there. Yet. But the election is three months away, and the Democrats never thought that things would look like this when they oh-so-confidently planned their strategy a couple of years ago. Karma’s kind of fun when it isn’t you taking the hit, isn’t it?
Some of the below are serious, some are… less so; but if you hear enough of them, you’ll know that Election Night is going to be bad for the Democrats.