Nov
02
2010
3

#rsrh QotD, Is He Feeling Well? Edition.

Greg Sargent actually writes something that’s moderately aware of objective reality. On President Obama’s upcoming rhetorical response to his upcoming thumping:

So look for [Obama] to seek the moral high ground by calling on Republicans to meet him on some sort of ideologically undefined but temperamentally soothing “common ground,” rather than calling on them to meet him in the “center.” Of course, what really matters is what Obama and Republicans actually do next year, not what they say they’re going to do. And they’re going to be at war.

Yup! It’s going to be a blast.

Moe Lane

Nov
02
2010
--

For your amusement: an updated 2008 Obama ad.

It did not age well. Oh, my, did it not age well.

(Via Battle ’10) Although I suspect that the participants in said video would bitterly argue my observation, assuming that any of them are sober at this moment. No, wait, it’s 8 AM on the Left Coast; they won’t start the anticipatory heavy drinking until about 1 PM my time.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Vote.

PPS: Hey! If politics is Hollywood for the ugly, does that mean that Hollywood is politics for the stupid? (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: , ,
Nov
01
2010
2

#rsrh The final Cook DOOMLists.

Rather than walk you through the latest changes – short version is that the sliding of the Democratic party’s House members into the abyss is operating more or less on schedule – I’d thought that I’d show you just how bad an election cycle it’s been for the Other Side. Here’s the House [UPDATE: the 2008  entries in each case are the first Cook surveys of the 2010 election cycle]:

11/1/2010 11/13/2008
Dem GOP Dem GOP
Likely D 19 1 28 0
Lean D 23 2 18 0
Toss-Up 49 1 2 5
Lean R 21 4 0 5
Likely R 8 7 0 24
Total 120 15 48 34
High-Risk 78 4 2 5

(more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Oct
29
2010
--

Cook’s DOOMList: 10/28/2010 edition.

This may be the penultimate DOOMList from Cook with regard to the House: it’s the Friday before the election and there’s just not much time left for tracking the ongoing Democratic party’s synchronized mass career implosion.  Which is not to say that more extinction events won’t occur, but there’s a limit to how fast Cook can write them down.

Candidate District Ranking Challenger
Costa CA-20 Toss-Up Andy Vidak
Boyd FL-02 Lean R Steve Southerland
Marshall GA-08 Lean R Austin Scott
Minnick ID-01 Toss-Up Raul Labrador
Frank MA-04 Lean D Sean Bielat
Pingree ME-01 Lean D Dean Scontras
Heinrich NM-01 Toss-Up Jon Barela
Bishop NY-01 Toss-Up Randy Altschuler
Open TN-08 Likely R Stephen Fincher
Ortiz TX-27 Lean D Blake Farenthold
Connolly VA-11 Toss-Up Keith Fimian
Larsen WA-02 Toss-Up John Koster

I mildly regret to say that the latest readjustments included three that favored the Democratic party – two of which were to the benefit of Democratic incumbents.  It is regrettable to see any Democrat slip from our fingers, of course… but looking  at the list above, I think that we’ll all bear up under the crushing disappointment, somehow.  Particularly if Barney Frank continues to spiral inward…

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Oct
26
2010
6

Cook’s DOOMList: 10/26/2010.

This week’s adjustment by Cook is not that extensive, but it’s a doozy:

Incumbent Republican
MA-06 John Tierney Bill Hudak
NJ-06 Frank Pallone Anna Little
NC-04 David Price BJ Lawson
OH-10 Dennis Kuchinich Peter Corrigan
OR-04 Peter DeFazio Art Robinson
TN-05 Jim Cooper David Hall
TX-25 Lloyd Doggett Donna Campbell

Those are all formerly-safe races that are now abruptly… not-safe. They’ve all gone from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic, but this kind of movement is consistent with a continuing drift towards the GOP side.  It would be interesting to see what the Toss-Up and Lean Republican totals would look like right now if Cook was less conservative about assigning incumbents to the latter.  Also: look at some of those names.  There are some heavy hitters on the Democratic side on that list, and they’re even now being told the bad news.  Will a week be enough time to topple them?

I don’t know.  Let’s find out.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Oct
26
2010
1

New York Times: DOOM.

The actual title isn’t that, of course.  The actual title is “Democrats Counting on Strength of Obama’s Get-Out-the-Vote Network“… which is merely semantically equivalent to the word/phrase/meme “DOOM.”  If you’re “counting on” getting enough voters out there to erase your own, admitted failure to be the perceived front-runner, then you’ve already lost and you’re just trying to avoid a rout*.  Thus it was for the Republican party in 2008 and 2006; and thus it was for the Democratic party in 2004 and 2002.  In all four cycles the afflicted party spoke of last minute GOTV pushes and the base coming home and whatever sudden wild hope erupted in the last week before the polls opened, while the party that was ahead collectively smirked and resolutely declined to remember when they did the exact same thing.  Admittedly, it’s great fun to watch, assuming of course if it’s not happening to you.

However.  WE CAN STILL LOSE.  So if you can vote early and haven’t, do that today.  And vote a straight ticket.  Governor, Lt. Governor, state-wide offices, Senate, House, state House, state Senate, county officials, judges, sheriffs, sewer commissioner, town executives, dog-catcher ,or even coroner (if you live in Louisiana).  Clean house.  The more states we control next January, the more states we can keep the Democrats from implementing the redistricting plots that they are undoubtedly plotting right this second (gerrymandering schemes are a hobby for their activists, or perhaps ‘fetish’ would be a better word); plus, every Democrat unceremoniously booted from lower office is a Democrat who is no longer going to be advancing up the ladder for higher office**.  And, of course, the more Republicans we elect the better our bench gets.

Moe Lane (crosspost) (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Oct
25
2010
3

Four out of five signs of DOOM.

Benjamin Sarlin has compiled a list of… well, five signs of DOOM: by his and my count we’ve hit four of them.  The fifth (We Totally Meant To Lose Anyway) will probably hit in force after the next time Cook and/or Rothenberg update their list of Democrats whose staffers need to update their resumes and/or start shredding the paperwork in anticipation of Darrell Issa’s 2011 Investigation-O-Rama.

But I’d add a sixth: GOTV Will Save Us! It’s an old crowd favorite, mostly because it’s not necessarily untrue.  GOTV can save you.  It never does, but it can.

Via Instapundit.

Moe Lane (crosspost) (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Oct
18
2010
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Chris Matthews brings DOOM unto Jack Conway.

Yes. That Chris Matthews. Matthews apparently did not personally approve of the way that Jack Conway smeared Rand Paul with a recent scurrilous ad, and so took the opportunity to smack Conway around for over seven minutes of pretty much relentless, aggressive interviewing.

Yes, again: that Chris Matthews. As I remarked just now on Twitter, watching this was like watching Jack Conway get mauled by a Teletubbie.

H/T: Erick Erickson, on Twitter.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Rand Paul for Senate.

PPS: I believe that the DSCC may now start transferring money out of that race with a clear conscience.

Oct
12
2010
1

#rsrh The hint of Senate DOOM.

For one brief – very brief – moment this morning the RCP forecast for the Senate (based on the rolling polling average, no Toss-ups) was at +10 GOP.  It then dropped down to +8 and then stabilized at +9.  Which is where it’s been for the last couple of days.

In and of itself?  Meaningless.  The polling average mechanism is merely a data point, and one whose meaning is often argued – particularly now, three weeks before the election.  But it is three weeks before the election, and it is possible to argue with a straight face that the GOP has a chance at flipping the Senate.  There were damn few people out there even six months ago who thought that such a thing was possible, and even fewer that were even willing to admit to the possibility in public.

Twenty-one days.

Moe Lane

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Oct
09
2010
3

Charlie Cook’s List of DOOM.

For those who don’t know: Charlie Cook is one of the more respected political handicappers out there, with a solid reputation for accurate forecasting.  I can personally attest to that, given that in 2008 I glumly used his site to assist me in the task of watching things spiral downward for the GOP.  As you can imagine, the 2010 election cycle has been a lot more enjoyable in that regard: and never so much so as recently, when Charlie Cook broke a rule.

You see, he doesn’t like to rate incumbents in trouble as being more in trouble than “Toss-Up.”  It’s a reasonable restriction, given that incumbency remains a powerful advantage for candidates, even when they’re in trouble – and Charlie Cook followed that rule back in 2008; even at the end of October of 2008, the only non-open seats that made it past the cut-off line were Tim Mahoney (D), who had just been discovered (if I remember correctly)  to have used campaign money to pay off a mistress; and Tom Feeney (R), who was… Tom Feeney, really.  In other words: in a bad year for incumbent Republicans, Cook unbent enough to call two beforehand.

Cook is already forecasting twelve, this cycle.

There is no question that Democrats have their backs to the wall. It’s unprecedented to see so many incumbents running behind their challengers.

While the Cook Political Report has a general policy of not putting unindicted incumbents in categories worse than our “Toss Up” column, which is akin to the critical ward of a hospital, we are now looking at moving a dozen or so Democratic House incumbents into the Lean Republican column..

(more…)

Aug
03
2010
29

#rsrh Top Ten Signs of DOOM.

[UPDATE]: Welcome, Instapundit readers.

We’re not there. Yet. But the election is three months away, and the Democrats never thought that things would look like this when they oh-so-confidently planned their strategy a couple of years ago.  Karma’s kind of fun when it isn’t you taking the hit, isn’t it?

Some of the below are serious, some are… less so; but if you hear enough of them, you’ll know that Election Night is going to be bad for the Democrats.
(more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Jun
21
2010
2

#rsrh Gallup does not bring the DOOM.

DOOM implies a lack of giggling.

An average of 59% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have said they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year compared with past elections, the highest average Gallup has found in a midterm election year for either party since the question was first asked in 1994.

Via Jim Geraghty.  Just try not to giggle at that article.

Try.

Moe Lane (more…)

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