Jul
21
2015
4

USA Today warns its readers about the Republican party.

I really wish that the Media wouldn’t write stories like these.  They’re inimical to the long-term plans of the Republican party; worse, they highlight things that we, put simply, would prefer not be mentioned in public.  Mind you, we can overcome these kinds of revelations anyway, but it’s all still a reminder that The Media Is Not Our Friend:

You would expect that a political party that recently won a majority in the U.S. Senate, gained strength in the House, captured 31 of 50 governorships and gave 24 of those governors majorities in their legislatures would be basking in predictions of future success. But rather than luxuriating in the warm glow of bright prospects, the Republican Party is, in the eyes of some experts, on track for extinction.

The reasons center on demographic forecasts showing groups likely to vote for the GOP in steep decline and Democratic-oriented voters surging. But such “in the long run” predictions resemble those fanciful 1930s prophecies that by 1970, we would be all be commuting by autogiro and living in geodesic domes.

(more…)

Jun
30
2015
16

Quote of the Day, Victories Are Fragile edition.

This here is an important point that can’t be brought up enough.

Ever wonder why no interesting center-left Democrats aren’t challenging an increasingly vulnerable Hillary Clinton? There aren’t any. Nobody. No one.

As Britain and France were bled white by their World War I battles, the Democrats were drained by a series of midterm debacles in which those in swing states were punished by voters, and all but the bluest of blue were cut down. On the altar of healthcare, Democrats sacrificed the fruit of two cycles of party-expansion, the picking of people who could win in red states and red districts, to bolster the party’s breadth and appeal.

(more…)

Jun
23
2015
5

Interesting breakdown by Cook on the 2016 electorate.

I’m having a problem with the formatting for it, but even on first glance I’m struck by the way that Cook is basically conceding that the Democrats’ cause for optimism – and, judging from the title (Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don’t Guarantee a Democratic White House) Charlie Cook isn’t as optimistic – starts by conceding that Hillary Clinton needs no net change in the black vote to even be able to hope to win. That is by no means assured in the 2016 election. Cook kind of hints at it in the tables, where he pegs the GOP’s must-win numbers among African-Americans at 10% – which, of course, was the old rule-of-thumb number prior to 2008.   (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Jun
20
2015
1

Mercenaries vs. holdouts: the Democrats’ 2016 dilemma.

Oh, yeah. Like Dan McLaughlin, I forgot that Hillary Clinton said this. Or possibly burned it out of my mind:

(more…)

Jun
18
2015
--

Poor (name-ID, really) numbers for Democrats in Michigan right now.

Interesting numbers here:

If the November 2016 general election were held today, Bush would lose Michigan to Clinton by 9 percentage points, 46 percent to 37 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.

Clinton’s margin over Paul and Rubio in head-to-head matchups were both just under 4 percentage points and within the poll’s margin of error. She led Paul 44.5 percent to 40.7 percent and Rubio 42.4 percent to 38.7 percent.

Mind you, this is mostly name recognition, which is probably bad news for Bush. Still, Hillary Clinton having these kinds of numbers when facing off of relative unknowns (who are, mind you, even now becoming more known) suggests that Hillary is having name recognition bad news of her very own, too.  I know, I know: how sad, yes?

Via

Jun
14
2015
16

Resign yourself to not having Barack Obama to kick around very much anymore.

This is basically what happened:

President Barack Obama wanted Congress to pass a variety of trade-related proposals, and he didn’t want to have to rely on Republican votes in order to see that happen. He lobbied his fellow Democrats in favor of trade, and he lobbied them hard. In the end, it wasn’t enough. On Friday, the president endured a stern censure from the very members of the party for whom he once served as a savior. Barack Obama’s presidency is all but over. It’s Hillary Clinton’s party now, but she does not seem inclined to lead it so much as to emerge as its supervisor by default and through a process of attrition. She is not in a hurry to rush that process, and there is no alternative Democratic leader waiting in the wings. Inadvertently, what House Democrats did on Friday was to decapitate their own party.

(more…)

May
29
2015
2

Quote of the Day, I Am Not Worried That The Democrats Have No One To Aim At Yet edition.

Quite the contrary, really.  Anyway, what makes this quote particularly entertaining is that your average Democratic operative has very possibly never been in a Super Walmart in his or her life, and so has no idea what Brad Todd is talking about:

‪“More quality candidates and a deeper field is always better,” says Brad Todd, a Republican communications operative who is working for a political action committee supporting Bobby Jindal, adding that there is no imperative to settle on a nominee quickly. “We have the selection you’d expect from a Super Walmart, and on the Democratic side it’s a Moscow grocery.”

Although I understand that Moscow’s groceries improved, once the Commies went away.  Then again, pretty much everything improves when the Commies go away.  Something about how Communism kind of sucks.

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Apr
19
2015
1

John Kerry, v2.0. …Not that they really wanted v1.0, either.

I kind of agree, kind of disagree.

The more one watches the coverage of Mrs Clinton, the more it becomes apparent that it won’t be the serious scandals – the Benghazis or the private email account – that will matter. Rather, the much greater danger is that she could become a joke.

Unlike Barack Obama’s early days, Mrs Clinton isn’t viewed as “off limits” to the entertainment and media worlds. And unlike her husband, former president Bill Clinton, Mrs Clinton must get elected in a world where conservative websites and citizen journalists with camera phones are ubiquitous.

(more…)

Apr
18
2015
10

So, Gov. Rick Snyder (R, Michigan) is thinking of jumping into the 2016 fray.

Ed Morrissey has the details. On Gov. Rick Snyder’s actual prospects I’m… shrugging.  He’s a successful two-term governor in a swing state who has a solid conservative win (right-to-work) under his belt.  But we’ve got a lot of those right now, if you know what I mean?

And that’s the real story, isn’t it?  In 2012 that description would have – did – propel a candidate instantly to the top of the list.  In 2016 it’s – well, Snyder’s record is something to be proud of, but it’s nothing too special.  I really, really enjoy having a candidate pool this deep.  It gives us a margin for error.

Moe Lane

PS: Kind of significant that there’s no shortage of successful Republican politicians deciding that the political situation is worth a little speculative activity. We had a certain lack of that in 2012, alas.

Apr
10
2015
1

Hillary Clinton to go the Max Headroom campaign strategy route. No, really.

(H/T @charlescwcooke) This will set the tone for the Clinton candidacy: “A person familiar with the Clinton team’s plans confirmed that she will make the initial announcement [that she’s running for President] in a video on Sunday before heading to Iowa.”  Basically, the Clinton campaign has decided to do the bare minimum necessary to signal that she’s running for office, while at the same time giving the press the same mushroom treatment that Barack Obama pioneered.  No questions taken, no opportunities to see how the woman reacts under pressure*, and this may be the first time in history that a major political candidate deliberately attempts to avoid media coverage of her campaign rollout: Ed Morrissey argues here that Hillary wants the media to stay focused on Marco Rubio’s campaign announcement Monday, and not raise inconvenient questions about hers**. (more…)

Apr
09
2015
1

Democrats: Save us, Lincoln Chafee, you’re ou… no, they’d probably prefer even Martin O’Malley.

Lincoln Chafee is the sort of candidate that runs when your party’s basic electoral strategy can be best described as ‘YOLO.’

(Via The Campaign Spot) How seriously should you take this Q-poll showing Hillary Clinton faring badly in battleground states?

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s lead is wilting against leading Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, and she finds herself in a close race with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in each state, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. In head-to-head matchups, every Republican candidate effectively ties her in Colorado and almost all Republicans effectively tie her in Iowa.

This seriously.

Former Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee on Thursday announced he will launch a presidential exploratory committee, a surprising move for the Democratic nomination by a veteran public servant who was not previously considered a potential contender… And he’s already indicated that hitting Hillary Clinton on her vote for the Iraq War — which he opposed — will be central to his rationale for running, introducing a foreign policy foil to Clinton’s cast of potential rivals.

(more…)

Mar
09
2015
3

The Last Temptation of Russ Feingold.

Oh, poor Russ Feingold.  He must be so sorely, sorely tempted to run: “Former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold’s departure from the State Department has political experts predicting a highly contested rematch of the 2010 race in which the Madison-area senator was defeated.” Russ Feingold, of course, lost to Ron Johnson in that race; and as Senator Johnson is at the top of most people’s Senators Most At-Risk lists it makes a good deal of sense that Feingold might want a rematch. I can’t imagine that losing in 2010 made Feingold feel good about himself, after all.  The man had (still has, I suppose) a carefully-constructed mental vision of himself as being a Servant of the People: that the People took the opportunity to remove him from service very probably eats at Mr. Feingold.  At least a little.

But there’s a solution, right? Russ Feingold runs for office again, beats Ron Johnson, and goes back to his old life.  And then everything will be good again and there will be pie.  No problems there, no problems at all… well. There’s a small problem. (more…)

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