Two weeks in, and things are not going according to the Democrats’ plan.

Some interesting articles out there on Obama, and his influence on various demographics.

Like, say, women:

Female voters powered President Barack Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney in 2012, as Democrats leaned heavily on social issues to rally single women and suburban moms to the polls.

But with two weeks until Election Day, the president’s diminished standing with women is quickly becoming one of the biggest liabilities facing Democrats as they struggle to hang onto the Senate majority.



House Democratic campaign operatives feel abandoned by their party right now.

Apparently, the Democratic Establishment has made a DOOM call for the House:

House Democratic strategists are frustrated that key outside groups are putting their money into the fight for the Senate, leaving House campaigns starved for cash.

Spending on House races by organized labor as well as groups representing women and environmental organizations dropped by $18 million compared to the last cycle, the groups said.

Democrats are worried their lost seats in the House could be in the double digits, making it that much harder to take back the chamber in 2016, a presidential election year when the party hopes turnout will be better.



Quote of the Day, ‘Election 2014: Suck It Up And Walk It Off’ edition.

Frank J is in rare form here:

…back in 2008, Barack Obama was elected president with a Democrat-controlled House and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Many of us correctly knew this was like having a toddler armed with power tools. Others, though, didn’t see the danger and cooed, “Oh, look at that little guy. He’s so industrious! He’s going to get a lot done,” while the rest of us were freaking out, worried about him getting near anything valuable. And before we could yell, “No, little Barry, no!” he went right after health care with his drill, and it’s basically all ruined now.

So in 2010 we voted to take away his power tools by turning the House over to the Republicans. Obama was still a destructive little tyke who just refused to listen, but at least now it was a bit harder for him to burn the whole house down or something. In 2012, we — well, I don’t know how to stretch the analogy — had the option to exchange little Barry at the kid-trade-in emporium and get a better kid who might not be as dumb and destructive. I guess we had grown fond of the little dummy, though, and thought maybe he was finally learning. We were just being sentimental, of course. We really should have done the smart thing and sold the kid to gypsies.



Quote of the Day, DOOM in Ohio-GOV edition.

This call is justified, I think. The New York Times:

Just five weeks before Election Day, Ohio Democrats have descended into recriminations…


Yeah, there’s no need to write anything further. What a pity there’s no Senate races in Ohio this year, huh?


‘Can’t put a happy face on this, Moe.’ …Gee, *I* can.

I shouldn’t find this funny:



…because it’s not. It’s a deliberate effort to scare people into giving the Democrats money; money that the Democratic party will largely spend on itself, the better to put the Democratic party in a position where it can continue to try to scare people into giving the Democrats money. That’s just… wrong. And, yes, I have to care about it being wrong: Christianity is hard.

Still, although the Democrats are doing Bad Things, here, there’s a certain amount of desperation in their voices at this point. Which is kind of darkly amusing, because things are very much not going to plan for them right now.  :shrug: They didn’t have much sympathy in 2012, so I don’t have any now.

Written by in: Politics | Tags:

100 days to go until the election…

…and this is the RCP Senate (No Tossups) map:




Why it doesn’t much matter who the Democrats pick to lose in 2016.

These two graphs will hopefully help people understand why I’m not panicky about any of the potential Democratic candidates for 2016 actually running.  The first graph shows Bush/Obama’s polling average, as of Election Day 2004/2012:


…and the second shows Bush/Obama’s polling average today (June 6, 2014/2006):



Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,

Looks like Jodi Ernst over in Iowa-SEN. (via @AoSHQDD).

AoSHQDD is calling it for her.  As for Mississippi… it’s far too exciting for both Cochran’s and McDaniel’s partisans right now, which is one reason why I’m kind of glad to have stayed out of that one.  I can take a detached view of the results.

You really should follow AoSHQDD, by the way.  They’re doing the Lord’s work there when it comes to tabulating election results.

Written by in: Politics | Tags:

John Vihstadt (R) wins Arlington County Board race. …No, really.

(Via AoSHQ) To quote my favorite Jim Henson line: well, put me in overshoes and call me a duck. “John Vihstadt, a Republican who ran as an independent with the endorsement of the local Republican and Green parties, has won the special election to replace Chris Zimmerman (D) on the Arlington County [Virginia] Board.”  And let’s get the caveats out of the way: special election, special election issues, low (16%) turnout, and yes, having the Green party on-side for this one changed the dynamic of the race (see the 2012 returns for an idea of how this area votes*).  Still. I saw this race a couple of days ago, and I assumed that we weren’t going to squeak past. (more…)


Michigan Woman: died in 2008, found in 2014… and voted in 2010.

Gee, I wonder who she voted for.

Voting records in Oakland County show [Pia] Farrenkopf, who has not been positively identified by the Medical Examiner’s Office, is shown as voting in the November 2010 gubernatorial election.

Pontiac city records indicate Farrenkopf registered to vote in 2006 and had not voted until 2010, but officials point out that could have been an administrative error and she may not have actually cast a vote.

The city clerk, who was not in that job in 2010, said infrequent voters tend to vote in presidential elections, like 2008, over gubernatorial elections like the one in 2010.



Might as well just say it now: Rick Santorum has had his day.

Is this a trick question?

Why isn’t Rick Santorum the GOP 2016 frontrunner?

It’s because Rick Santorum is a former two-term Senator from Pennsylvania who will have been out of office for a decade by the time 2016 rolls around. By that time the GOP will have a minimum of six successful* sitting or just-retired governors, two or three sitting, popular Senators, and maybe a sitting Congressman to choose from in the primary: under those circumstances I don’t really care what Rick Santorum’s message would be. Neither, I suspect, would the American electorate. If it’s compelling, the winning candidate will simply rip it off wholesale. (more…)

Site by Neil Stevens | Theme by TheBuckmaker.com