…and this is the RCP Senate (No Tossups) map:
These two graphs will hopefully help people understand why I’m not panicky about any of the potential Democratic candidates for 2016 actually running. The first graph shows Bush/Obama’s polling average, as of Election Day 2004/2012:
…and the second shows Bush/Obama’s polling average today (June 6, 2014/2006):
AoSHQDD is calling it for her. As for Mississippi… it’s far too exciting for both Cochran’s and McDaniel’s partisans right now, which is one reason why I’m kind of glad to have stayed out of that one. I can take a detached view of the results.
You really should follow AoSHQDD, by the way. They’re doing the Lord’s work there when it comes to tabulating election results.
(Via AoSHQ) To quote my favorite Jim Henson line: well, put me in overshoes and call me a duck. “John Vihstadt, a Republican who ran as an independent with the endorsement of the local Republican and Green parties, has won the special election to replace Chris Zimmerman (D) on the Arlington County [Virginia] Board.” And let’s get the caveats out of the way: special election, special election issues, low (16%) turnout, and yes, having the Green party on-side for this one changed the dynamic of the race (see the 2012 returns for an idea of how this area votes*). Still. I saw this race a couple of days ago, and I assumed that we weren’t going to squeak past. (more…)
Gee, I wonder who she voted for.
Voting records in Oakland County show [Pia] Farrenkopf, who has not been positively identified by the Medical Examiner’s Office, is shown as voting in the November 2010 gubernatorial election.
Pontiac city records indicate Farrenkopf registered to vote in 2006 and had not voted until 2010, but officials point out that could have been an administrative error and she may not have actually cast a vote.
The city clerk, who was not in that job in 2010, said infrequent voters tend to vote in presidential elections, like 2008, over gubernatorial elections like the one in 2010.
Is this a trick question?
It’s because Rick Santorum is a former two-term Senator from Pennsylvania who will have been out of office for a decade by the time 2016 rolls around. By that time the GOP will have a minimum of six successful* sitting or just-retired governors, two or three sitting, popular Senators, and maybe a sitting Congressman to choose from in the primary: under those circumstances I don’t really care what Rick Santorum’s message would be. Neither, I suspect, would the American electorate. If it’s compelling, the winning candidate will simply rip it off wholesale. (more…)
…of things that the next Presidential candidate should do. I especially like this one:
31-When in doubt, go on the attack against the Democratic frontrunner rather than your primary opponents. Never forget that you are auditioning to run the general election against the Democrat, not just trying to be the least-bad Republican.
…God knows that I’ve made my operating philosophy on that issue clear.
I keep forgetting to bring this up:
New ad: http://t.co/43dLGHvlU9
— Fausta For Council (@Fausta4Council) June 23, 2013
Here’s her campaign website. Fausta is a lovely woman and a good blogger who I have known for years; if you happen to be eligible to vote in Princeton, New Jersey’s Council elections, you should by all means vote for her.
Really, it does.
— Kevin Eder (@keder) November 4, 2012
Note the comment by an Obama supporter: “My two favorite guys in the world in NH today….I had a ticket to go, but could not afford gas to Concord:(”
…You don’t say?
Which is pretty close to ‘standing pat.’ I’m not really going to go into the tall weeds on this one – my math isn’t up to the task – but the result is pretty darn close to my own gut call of “single-digit Democratic gains*,” so clearly these people are geniuses.
*I expect a good bit of churn, though. We have a large freshman class and redistricting is affecting both sides; but the Democrats have a lackluster lineup this election cycle and the last three cycles have been pure hell on any Congressman who had any visible weakness at all. So we will lose people, and so will they, and the Republicans will retain the House.
I ask because of this quote from the Wall Street Journal:
“[Barack Obama] has a rap he uses all the time on the campaign trail about this being the election that will break the stalemate in Washington. But when you look at it, it sounds like he’s just talking about getting him re-elected,” Mr. Hickey said.
The background here is that Barack Obama is becoming infamous for his lack of support for other, theoretically-fellow Democrats – to the point where he doesn’t even bother to mention the local ones in his local speeches, explicitly including the ones running for re-election. And the subtext here is that “Mr. Hickey” is Roger Hickey, “co-director of the liberal advocacy group Campaign for America’s Future.” You know it’s bad when reliable Democratic shills are making the same observations about a Democratic candidate that I would.
Lots of people talking about Wisconsin and whether or not it’s in play. Truth be told, I don’t know: the WI GOP is pretty freaking hardcore these days, but the Democrats will pour whatever it takes to keep that firewall*. And this map is why:
The above is the Democrats Midwest Collapse nightmare scenario: it represents the Republicans running the table in that region. I personally think that we’re good in Indiana, will be good in Iowa, and probably be good in Ohio… but if Wisconsin flips then Michigan probably won’t be too far behind. And note that if that happens it doesn’t matter at all what happens in Virginia, Colorado, and/or New Hampshire.
My basic take on this: this pick does not guarantee the Midwest for the Republicans, but it does guarantee that the Democrats are going to have to put resources into yet another geographical region. Resources that they may end up not having.