Nov
21
2015
9

Well, put me in overshoes and call me a duck.

Preliminary results suggest that it’s gonna be Democrat John Bel Edwards as Governor and Republican Billy Nungresser as Lt. Governor in Louisiana.  Who had that in the pool? – Because that possibility wasn’t mentioned, much.

Gonna be some special spinning on this one, folks. For myself, I wonder if David Vitter will take the hint, when it comes to his next re-election race? Guess we’ll see*…

Moe Lane

*Now watch him win after all, just to spite us.

Nov
09
2015
5

The Hill, upset that GOP activists aren’t planning to play Senate spoilers in 2016?

I’m not really sure why the Hill sounds so surprised, here: “Republican Senate incumbents look to be largely free of tough primary challenges by Tea Party candidates that could complicate the party’s efforts to retain the uppwer [sic] chamber during the pivotal 2016 election.”  We have 24 seats at stake in the next election, which is also a Presidential election. As the Hill admits, there are two open seats that are tempting prospects for conservative activists (three, if Vitter wins the governorship*); but what the Hill doesn’t quite bring up is that there aren’t that many Senators up this cycle that REALLY infuriate grassroots activists.  I mean, yes: everybody grinds their teeth over John McCain. But he is probably the only nationally recognized galloping disaster of ours this cycle.

At least, for right now.  Ask me again in March.  Then again, in March we’ll be smack dab in the middle of the Presidential election cycle, and a lot of activists are going to be understandably fixated on that. So maybe ask me in 2017? …No, wait, too late then.  Maybe just don’t ask me at all… no, that doesn’t even make any sense.

Moe Lane

*I am not about to say that he can’t.

 

Oct
16
2015
4

Alan Grayson’s troublesome 3Q fundraising.

This is seriously bad news: Alan Grayson raised only $743K and has $252K cash on hand. How does he expect to beat Patrick Murphy for the Florida Senate Democratic nomination, when Murphy raised $1.5M, and has $3.5M COH? – And the polling isn’t so hot, either: sure, PPP has him ahead… but it’s PPP.

…What can I say? I’d rather have Alan Grayson conceding on Election Night than Patrick Murphy. Having Patrick Murphy lose is just business; there’s nothing personal there. But Grayson? Yeah, Grayson makes it a little personal for us.

Sep
28
2015
8

Tweet of the Day, Jindal Could In Fact Win Iowa edition.

And it’s not even implausible.

Which is not to say that it’s likely, either. Basically, it comes down to how much favorability ratings matter in the Iowa race: Bobby Jindal is well-liked in that state, and if Ben Carson and/or Carly Fiorina don’t catch fire with Iowa caucus-goers then Jindal stands a chance of getting an upset win, or at least a second-place finish. …And there are at least three assumptions in that sentence. Possibly five. So, it’s a possibility, but don’t bet anything that you can’t bear to lose on the outcome either way.

Sep
23
2015
1

Tweet of the Day, Team Clinton Staffers Must Be Dreading Their Inboxes Right Now edition.

I’m only putting this poll up for malice-aforethought reasons.

Because obviously any one poll is meaningless. But, hey: it’s almost October, and the Democratic party still hasn’t gotten its primary together, either. It’s remarkably failed to do so, in fact.  And even if I don’t take this poll all that seriously, you can bet that people are walking quietly and not causing any aggro over at Team Clinton HQ today…

Sep
21
2015
14

Scott Walker suspends campaign.

I’m grabbing this image from @EsotericCD, largely because I don’t want to play ‘favorites’ on who should leave the primaries next, but: there are some candidates who need to ask themselves what their victory conditions are. Scott Walker has decided that he’s not going to win this pot, and that there’s no point throwing good money in after bad. Who will follow his example?

walker

Sep
21
2015
2

Reminder: it is not established that 2016 will be like 2012, 2008, 2004, or any other year.

This is supposedly Bernie Sanders’ problem, in a nutshell:

The problem for Sanders is a demographic one. In the South, where a number of states hold primaries in February and the first half of March, Clinton still has a lock on nonwhite Democrats.

[snip]

On March 1, primary voters in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia — all states where Clinton is expected to come out ahead — will go to the polls. Voters in Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Sanders’ home state of Vermont will as well, and though Sanders has a chance of winning any of those states, their delegate counts pale in comparison to those in a larger state like Texas.

(more…)

Sep
10
2015
4

DNC nervously refuses to host more debates.

The wagons are being circled: “Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz is closing the door on adding more Democratic presidential debates, and said a controversial clause penalizing candidates for participating in unsanctioned debates would stand.” The number will stay at 6, and never mind the complaints from inside the party. No, really, the Democratic leadership is determined to never mind them.

Before we go any further: that Hill article noted that there were two dozen or so primary debates in 2008, which does admittedly sound a bit high. Six, on the hand, is… well, if you weren’t really expecting to have a contested primary then I suppose six would have seemed like plenty. As it stands right now, though, the Democrats are perilously close to having a contested primary despite the fact that their only alternatives to Hillary Clinton are currently Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley. As a former Democrat myself, the idea of that is giving me sympathy heartburn despite the fact that I want to see such a glorious trainwreck happen. (more…)

Sep
08
2015
5

Hillary Clinton now being more or less worshiped by liberal New England choral group.

Geez. White people.

(Via @YR_AlyssaDC) Nah, this isn’t creepy at all.

“A women’s chorus called Voices from the Heart replaced the name “Jesus” with “Hillary” at a campaign rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on Saturday.”

…but here’s the funny part: it’s kind of creepy for completely different reasons than you might think! Yes, replacing ‘Jesus’ with ‘Hillary Clinton’ is in itself more than faintly alarming. But it gets better! …For given values of better.
(more…)

Aug
30
2015
2

Doug Schoen’s off-tune whistling through the graveyard of Hillary Clinton’s electoral hopes.

If this is literally all that the Democrats have to work with, then they’re in trouble:

Democrats have won the popular vote in five of the last six national elections and with 17 Republican candidates, and the specter of Donald trump looming above it all, it’s hard to believe that even a weakened Clinton would be unelectable.

(more…)

Aug
25
2015
2

North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple’s retirement puts Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in quite the pickle.

Short version: Gov. Jack Dalrymple, a Republican, will not seek another term (North Dakota is one of the states that elects Governors in Presidential election years). Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, wants to be governor of North Dakota. This, then, would be a heavy temptation for her.

Two ‘problems,’ however*: one, North Dakota is a heavily Republican state, so she might lose. That will make her 2018 re-election… interesting. Sen. Heitkamp barely won in a squeaker in 2012; she has absolutely no margin whatsoever. But if Heidi Heitkamp wins the gubernatorial election, then the Democrats have an immediate headache: North Dakota passed a law earlier this year that dictates that all Senate vacancies must be filled via special election.  Given that the Democratic bench is as devastated in North Dakota as it is everywhere else in the United States, this effectively means that she’d be replaced with a Republican. (more…)

Aug
24
2015
13

Dear Republican party:

Please start taking this election cycle seriously. I understand that normally there would be another week of silly-season planned, but circumstances are such that we will need to wrap that up early. I apologize for the inconvenience.

Thank you in advance.

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