If this is literally all that the Democrats have to work with, then they’re in trouble:
Democrats have won the popular vote in five of the last six national elections and with 17 Republican candidates, and the specter of Donald trump looming above it all, it’s hard to believe that even a weakened Clinton would be unelectable.
Continue reading Doug Schoen’s off-tune whistling through the graveyard of Hillary Clinton’s electoral hopes.
Short version: Gov. Jack Dalrymple, a Republican, will not seek another term (North Dakota is one of the states that elects Governors in Presidential election years). Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, wants to be governor of North Dakota. This, then, would be a heavy temptation for her.
Two ‘problems,’ however*: one, North Dakota is a heavily Republican state, so she might lose. That will make her 2018 re-election… interesting. Sen. Heitkamp barely won in a squeaker in 2012; she has absolutely no margin whatsoever. But if Heidi Heitkamp wins the gubernatorial election, then the Democrats have an immediate headache: North Dakota passed a law earlier this year that dictates that all Senate vacancies must be filled via special election. Given that the Democratic bench is as devastated in North Dakota as it is everywhere else in the United States, this effectively means that she’d be replaced with a Republican. Continue reading North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple’s retirement puts Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in quite the pickle.
Please start taking this election cycle seriously. I understand that normally there would be another week of silly-season planned, but circumstances are such that we will need to wrap that up early. I apologize for the inconvenience.
Thank you in advance.
Politico: “The Kentucky GOP’s central committee voted Saturday to adopt a presidential caucus system next year, clearing the way Republican Sen. Rand Paul to run for president and reelection at the same time.” It’s costing Senator Rand Paul $500K to do this – he’s agreed to cover the costs of the Kentucky GOP running a caucus instead of a primary – but apparently the first-term Senator thinks that it’s worth it. Certainly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell does, too. Continue reading Sen. Rand Paul looks likely to be able to run for Senate and President next year.
See if you can spot the mistake in this tactical response by the Bernie Sanders campaign in dealing with race-baiting professional activists who, to use Hot Air’s phrase, are “successfully performing like a small pack of wolves who have found the weak bison in the herd.” Bernie Sanders was speaking in Seattle, or at least trying to, when this happened:
“We’re shutting this event down — now,” said an activist who suddenly leapt on stage. She approached the microphone where Sanders had just begun speaking, thanking attendees for welcoming him to “one of most progressive cities in the United States of America.” An event organizer attempted to stop the activist, and a heated exchange ensued as the crowd booed.
Eventually, activist Marissa Johnson was allowed to speak.
Continue reading Bernie Sanders campaign rendered impotent by #blacklivesmatter fanatics.
I really wish that the Media wouldn’t write stories like these. They’re inimical to the long-term plans of the Republican party; worse, they highlight things that we, put simply, would prefer not be mentioned in public. Mind you, we can overcome these kinds of revelations anyway, but it’s all still a reminder that The Media Is Not Our Friend:
You would expect that a political party that recently won a majority in the U.S. Senate, gained strength in the House, captured 31 of 50 governorships and gave 24 of those governors majorities in their legislatures would be basking in predictions of future success. But rather than luxuriating in the warm glow of bright prospects, the Republican Party is, in the eyes of some experts, on track for extinction.
The reasons center on demographic forecasts showing groups likely to vote for the GOP in steep decline and Democratic-oriented voters surging. But such “in the long run” predictions resemble those fanciful 1930s prophecies that by 1970, we would be all be commuting by autogiro and living in geodesic domes.
Continue reading USA Today warns its readers about the Republican party.
This here is an important point that can’t be brought up enough.
Ever wonder why no interesting center-left Democrats aren’t challenging an increasingly vulnerable Hillary Clinton? There aren’t any. Nobody. No one.
As Britain and France were bled white by their World War I battles, the Democrats were drained by a series of midterm debacles in which those in swing states were punished by voters, and all but the bluest of blue were cut down. On the altar of healthcare, Democrats sacrificed the fruit of two cycles of party-expansion, the picking of people who could win in red states and red districts, to bolster the party’s breadth and appeal.
Continue reading Quote of the Day, Victories Are Fragile edition.
I’m having a problem with the formatting for it, but even on first glance I’m struck by the way that Cook is basically conceding that the Democrats’ cause for optimism – and, judging from the title (Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don’t Guarantee a Democratic White House) Charlie Cook isn’t as optimistic – starts by conceding that Hillary Clinton needs no net change in the black vote to even be able to hope to win. That is by no means assured in the 2016 election. Cook kind of hints at it in the tables, where he pegs the GOP’s must-win numbers among African-Americans at 10% – which, of course, was the old rule-of-thumb number prior to 2008. Continue reading Interesting breakdown by Cook on the 2016 electorate.