Jul
27
2015
1

Don’t be afraid to get it wrong.

Interesting post here from Sean Trende on how gingerly the pollsters and analysts can treat anything like actual analysis. And believe you me: they do, in fact, worry themselves sick on the subject.  I was struck by this bit in particular:

…this fear of getting it wrong is probably creating a similar herding effect among analysts. In late 2014, Nate Cohn of the New York Times could claim that he wasn’t aware of a single theory for why polls would be biased toward Democrats in 2014. Given how Republicans outperformed the polls in that election, there should have been one (and in fairness, FiveThirtyEight subsequently published a piece that included just such a theory).

Part of the reason the theory didn’t exist might be that journalists and political scientists tend to be left-of-center, so they subconsciously resisted creating hypotheses that favored Republicans. But even people on the right shied away from constructing a pro-Republican electoral theory. A likely explanation for that hesitancy is that, after the unskewed polls debacle of 2012, few wanted to risk suggesting that the polls would be biased toward Democrats, and chance suffering the humiliation that would follow if they were proved wrong. There is safety in numbers for analysts as well.

(more…)

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Jul
14
2015
5

Tweet/Quote of the Day, 2015 Is Pretty Much A Silly-Season Year In The 2016 Election Cycle edition.

This is insightful (which is, of course, code for “I’ve been saying this for a while now myself”):

One reason I don’t sweat Trump too much. What’s the point? He’s not going to make it to the actual primaries anyway.

Jul
01
2015
3

Bernie Sanders pulls in 10K for his “I’m not Hillary Clinton!” rally.

As you may have guessed, I am not overly concerned about the fact that Sen. Bernie Sanders (Socialist, VT) got ten thousand people in Madison, Wisconsin this evening: “Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders drew 10,000 supporters, the largest crowd of his campaign thus far, according to reports.” …they got nowhere else to go, after all. Now, if I was on Hillary Clinton’s staff, I would be concerned. Perhaps even overly.  Definitely overly. Because that particular Democratic crowd is being fueled by a blend of several different things, none of which Hillary Clinton can provide. She may end up spending a good deal more money than she expected to crush this upstart of hers.

(more…)

Jun
30
2015
16

Quote of the Day, Victories Are Fragile edition.

This here is an important point that can’t be brought up enough.

Ever wonder why no interesting center-left Democrats aren’t challenging an increasingly vulnerable Hillary Clinton? There aren’t any. Nobody. No one.

As Britain and France were bled white by their World War I battles, the Democrats were drained by a series of midterm debacles in which those in swing states were punished by voters, and all but the bluest of blue were cut down. On the altar of healthcare, Democrats sacrificed the fruit of two cycles of party-expansion, the picking of people who could win in red states and red districts, to bolster the party’s breadth and appeal.

(more…)

Jun
24
2015
2

Tweet of the Day, People Who Believe In The Southern Strategy Meme Are Just DUMB edition.

Bless their hearts.

Pretty much that’s what it comes down to.  Being dumb. Note, by the way, that Reagan still won all the states there in the map below except Georgia and West Virginia. Then again, he was in a winning state of mind that election cycle, which is why he wracked up 489 Electoral Votes in 1980.

(more…)

Jun
07
2015
5

Recep Erdogan receives electoral rebuke in Turkish parliamentary elections.

Alternative title: So, we may be about to see a constitutional crisis in Turkey.

Short version: the ruling government in Turkey didn’t have that great an election night.

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has suffered his biggest setback in 13 years of amassing power as voters denied his ruling party a parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 and gave the country’s large Kurdish minority its biggest voice ever in national politics.

[snip] (more…)

Jun
03
2015
5

Perhaps that ‘Bush’ surname isn’t quite the ultimate political poison, after all.

This actually should not surprise anybody.

(more…)

May
07
2015
--

British Parliamentary elections tonight.

The British general election surprisingly – and a bit unfortunately – doesn’t seem like that big a deal during this particular administration, although I suspect that will change with the next one.  At least, I hope so: England’s been one of our staunchest allies for almost a century.  It’d be a shame if that went away simply because one of our Presidents happened to adopt a poisonous resentment of the British because then maybe Daddy would love him then.

Oh, sorry: did I type that out? My bad. How embarrassing. (more…)

Apr
07
2015
1

@AoSHQDD doing the live feed for elections tonight.

Their data is, as of this moment (6 PM Eastern), merely test data and not accurate. So don’t report on it yet.  But the results for the Chicago Mayor’s runoff*, the Ferguson, MO City Council races, and various Wisconsin elections can be found here.

Moe Lane

*I figure Rahm Emanuel will win this.  The other races? …Haven’t got a clue, sorry.

Mar
02
2015
10

Hillary Clinton STARTED OFF as the villain. How does she plan to become the hero?

Let us address the central paradox of the Hillary Clinton campaign.  To do that, though, we must first refresh our memories.  Specifically, this ad:

Remember it? It is, of course, an edited version of the iconic Apple 1984 ad which was altered to convert it from revolutionary agitprop praising a multinational corporation to revolutionary agitprop praising an undistinguished machine politician from Chicago. And, to be fair, it was successful agitprop. We will be arguing for decades about just how Hillary Clinton managed to lose that primary fight, but she did – and videos like this probably didn’t hurt. (more…)

Feb
23
2015
2

You gotta say this for Karl Rove/American Crossroads: they’re Ready For Hillary, too.

Glenn Reynolds called this Master-level trolling from Karl Rove’s American Crossroads, and… yeah. Yeah, it is.

Using Elizabeth Warren’s voice to drive home that message is a lovely touch. She’ll either have to complain, thus alienating her biggest fans; or she’ll have to keep her mouth shut, thus alienating the Clinton campaign.  That’s a win either way: it’s always nice to see a professional at work, particularly when the work isn’t actually aimed at you. If American Crossroads just stays out of the primaries this time, that would be spiffy, thanks.  If they do that, we’ll shower attaboys on Karl Rove all day and even let him have the last brownie.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Feb
06
2015
1

My God. It’s true! there IS a shadowy transnational Jewish group plotting to influence elections!

…Of course, it’s a progressive group of American Jews and the election in question is Israel’s, but that’s probably just a minor detail: “A coalition of U.S.-funded progressive groups has planned a massive get-out-the-vote effort to influence the Israeli elections, targeting communities that are most likely to vote against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-leaning Likud Party, according to a confidential strategy memo obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.” The group in question is called Ameinu, and while I do not actually personally care that it’s apparently engaged in an international Zionist campaign* to influence foreign elections, I would like to note that there’s at least a bit of historical awkwardness, here. Not to mention, historical irony.  Who would have thought that there might one day be an international Jewish plot to maybe destabilize Israel?

…Huh.  Progressives are weird.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: One other thought: perhaps Ameinu could have found someone to do their voter analysis who was once not accused of having written a “Jewish Protocols of the Elders of Zion?”  Look, I understand fully that Israeli political debates are not for the timid, but nonetheless this Seffi Rachlevsky fellow seems to be at least a little bit twitchy about Orthodox Jews. I mean, can you be really sure that some of that stuff won’t leak through and get on the analysis?

PPS: No, this article was not paid for by AIPAC.  Also: hold on, is that a thing?  What’s their per-word? Do I need to fill out a 1099 first?

*Not quite a conspiracy, but they probably shouldn’t have called that memo ‘confidential.’

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