Interesting, and a pity: “Former U.S. Rep, Charles Djou, a Republican, officially announced today that he is running for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District seat.” It’s a pity because while there weren’t that many ways to take advantage of the gutter war in the Democratic primary between Brian Schatz and Colleen Hanabusa, Charles Djou was pretty much the biggest Republican name that could run who wasn’t running for something else (Hawaii doesn’t have much of a Republican presence*). Unless Linda Lingle is ready to run again, that’s pretty much it… (more…)
And by ‘interesting’ I mean favorable:
- The most obvious one is that Republican (and former Lt. Gov) Duke Aiona would in a rematch beat Neil Abercrombie 48-40 among registered voters.
- Charles Djou (running for Senate) has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 58/30, which is fairly close to Colleen Hanabusa’s 62/27. Clearly, Hanabusa’s is better, but not nearly by as much as I would have expected.
- And this is important because Colleen Hanabusa currently leads incumbent Senator Brian Schatz 48/40 in the Democratic Senate primary.
If the Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser poll checked the Senate race, it wasn’t reported: based on the numbers, I’d guess that Hanabusa would be ahead of Djou and that Djou would be ahead of Schatz*. That is… remarkable news: particularly if the Hawaiian primaries turn nasty. After all, Djou won his Congressional race because Ed Case and… Colleen Hanabusa… both adamantly refused to accept the results of their primary race. Obviously, the Hawaiian Democratic party is as aware of this as I am: the question is, will they be able to keep whichever Democrat loses in line?
Interesting days ahead.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*You might be forgiven for thinking that this poll suggests that hao… ahem, ‘Caucasians’… may end up having a somewhat thin time of it in Hawaii this election cycle. Mostly because I’m thinking it, too. I don’t know what to do about it, though.
No, no reason: I just like to let Sam know from time to time that somebody on the mainland actually remembers that there is a Republican party in Hawaii – and a Republican in the state Senate there. Sam Slom‘s been the Minority Leader there since 2010, because he’s also been the entire Senate caucus there since 2010. I assume that the job is as lonely as all get-out.
Don’t know what the heck we’re going to do over there when Sam retires, tell truthful. I wonder if Hawaii Democrats are being similarly thoughtful…
“…most distasteful in view of the fact that the sheep was under 18 years old.”
No, I never thought that I’d have the opportunity to write that out, either. But apparently this is the world that we live in, now:
Hawaii senator Brian Schatz involved in simulated sheep rape rituals
U.S. Senator Brian Schatz once led a fraternity that got into trouble with the law and animal welfare groups for threatening to sodomize a sheep.
Just as a thought experiment: imagine what would happen if the following scenario played out…
- A minority Republican Senator passes away.
- Choosing a successor is the responsibility of his state’s (white) (Republican) governor.
- The late Senator in question had formally made a request to the governor that a particular qualified individual (who also happens to be a minority) succeed him.
- The governor then proceeds to ignore the dying wish of the late Senator, and instead chooses his (white) Lt. Governor.
The question before the board is, Just how big would the resulting media firestorm be, anyway? Large enough to detect from orbit?
President Obama faces a most difficult decision with the payroll tax extension up in the air, and it isn’t whether to compromise with Republicans.
The toughest call for the president this holiday season could be whether to join his family for Christmas in Hawaii or stay in lonely Washington.
Let me make it simple: President Obama’s job description does not include “$4 million holiday trips to Hawaii.“ Considering he bungled this entire situation in the first place by deciding to play games on the Keystone ethical oil pipeline, Obama should do what the rest of us have to do when our actions screw up our vacation plans: grow up and buckle down. Besides, when you’re President you work the job, not the clock. Alternatively, Obama can take full advantage of the fact that nobody can tell the President of the United States what to do and just freaking go on yet another vacation without all this fake agony over the situation. That’s more or less endurable, too. Just… stop whining about it, already.
Hey, if President Obama doesn’t like it he can always quit. Judging from past performance, it’s not like the Republic is going to collapse if Obama leaves his current job.
PS: I think that I know which movie William Jacobson is thinking of. Had sequels, right?
Looks like she may be, at that:
[Former Governor Linda Lingle's] favorability is up 5 points to 46% while her negatives have dropped 8 points to 43%. And with that improvement in her image has come an improvement in her standing against her potential opponents. She now trails [Rep. Mazie] Hirono by just 6 points at 48-42, and she actually leads [former Rep. Ed] Case by 2 points at 45-43.
Hirono and Case are probably going to slug it out for the nomination; they’ve already begun to confront each other in entertainingly nasty ways. As that link shows, Hirono’s the establishment choice, while Case… is not; which is kind of funny, because last year Case was the establishment choice in the HI-01 special election. Right up to the point where he and Colleen Hanabusa more or less handed the seat to Charles Djou, and in the process destroyed the last tattered Democratic apotropaic talking point that had been arrayed against DOOM. (more…)
Excellent news, if true: former governor Lingle was popular for most of her two terms in office (term limits prevented her from running for a third term in 2010). Some heavily partisan Democrats trumpeted some heavily partisan Democratic polling earlier in the year in an apparent attempt to keep her out of next year’s race; it’s apparently backfired.
This does not necessarily translate to ‘Lingle is a shoo-in.’ The state is reliably Blue these days; it’s one of the few places where the Republican party did unambiguously worse in the 2010 elections (loss of the governorship, a House seat*, and losses in both houses of the state legislature). How bad is it, in fact? Well, let me put it this way: meet Sam Slom, otherwise known as the Hawaiian Republican Senate caucus. The retirement of Sen. Akaka is likewise going to attract a lot of Democratic hopefuls; Hawaii has an institutional tendency to keep re-electing incumbents once they’re in office, which means that anybody getting that Senate seat can reasonably expect it to hold it for a while – even by US Senate standards.
Guess they decided to stop throwing money away, more’s the pity.
The DCCC is pulling out of the race to replace ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI), effectively ceding the heavily Dem seat to the GOP as intra-party feuding splits the vote.
“The DCCC will not be investing additional resources in the HI-01 (Abercrombie-open) special election. Local Democrats were unable to work out their differences,” DCCC communications director Jennifer Crider said in an emailed statement. “The DCCC will save the resources we would have invested in the Hawaii special election this month for the general election in November.”
But they swear that they’ll be back for the general election! – Assuming, of course, that Hawaii Democrats stop with this silly notion that they know better than Washington does about who would be a suitable candidate for HI-01.
PS: Charles Djou for Congress. After all, we want to keep this seat past November.
Crossposted to RedState.
Good question, if I do say so myself:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is re-evaluating whether to continue to spend money in this month’s Hawaii special election, Chairman Chris Van Hollen told POLITICO Thursday.
With former Democratic Rep. Ed Case and Democratic state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa splitting the Democratic vote against Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, Van Hollen said the committee recognized challenges to winning the race.
They’ve already dumped $243K into this race, so walking away now means admitting that they wasted a sizable amount of money. On the other hand, spending more and losing anyway will do the same thing, only intensified. On the gripping hand, the real issue is why they went against their own state’s political party structure in the first place…
Oh. Right. That last is because Van Hollen’s just not very good at recruiting candidates. Never mind.
PS: Djou for Congress.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Not a CPAC video, but Councilman Djou was within video range yesterday for just enough time for me to stop by and have a quick talk with him about the HI-01 election. Executive summary: he’s got a good shot at it. He’s the only Republican in a field of three (the other two are Democrats sniping at each other); his district performed pretty strongly for Bush and Lingle (and his Councilman’s District is inside HI-01, too); and his fundraising has been good. Djou’s site is here: check him out.
In person? Smart guy, strong on fiscal conservatism, in it to win it. And endlessly patient when it comes to explaining the local intricacies of Hawaiian elections.
Crossposted to RedState.