[Former Governor Linda Lingle’s] favorability is up 5 points to 46% while her negatives have dropped 8 points to 43%. And with that improvement in her image has come an improvement in her standing against her potential opponents. She now trails [Rep. Mazie] Hirono by just 6 points at 48-42, and she actually leads [former Rep. Ed] Case by 2 points at 45-43.
Hirono and Case are probably going to slug it out for the nomination; they’ve already begun to confront each other in entertainingly nasty ways. As that link shows, Hirono’s the establishment choice, while Case… is not; which is kind of funny, because last year Case was the establishment choice in the HI-01 special election. Right up to the point where he and Colleen Hanabusa more or less handed the seat to Charles Djou, and in the process destroyed the last tattered Democratic apotropaic talking point that had been arrayed against DOOM. Continue reading #rsrh (PPP) Lingle looking good in HI-SEN?
Excellent news, if true: former governor Lingle was popular for most of her two terms in office (term limits prevented her from running for a third term in 2010). Some heavily partisan Democrats trumpeted some heavily partisan Democratic polling earlier in the year in an apparent attempt to keep her out of next year’s race; it’s apparently backfired.
This does not necessarily translate to ‘Lingle is a shoo-in.’ The state is reliably Blue these days; it’s one of the few places where the Republican party did unambiguously worse in the 2010 elections (loss of the governorship, a House seat*, and losses in both houses of the state legislature). How bad is it, in fact? Well, let me put it this way: meet Sam Slom, otherwise known as the Hawaiian Republican Senate caucus. The retirement of Sen. Akaka is likewise going to attract a lot of Democratic hopefuls; Hawaii has an institutional tendency to keep re-electing incumbents once they’re in office, which means that anybody getting that Senate seat can reasonably expect it to hold it for a while – even by US Senate standards.
The DCCC is pulling out of the race to replace ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI), effectively ceding the heavily Dem seat to the GOP as intra-party feuding splits the vote.
“The DCCC will not be investing additional resources in the HI-01 (Abercrombie-open) special election. Local Democrats were unable to work out their differences,” DCCC communications director Jennifer Crider said in an emailed statement. “The DCCC will save the resources we would have invested in the Hawaii special election this month for the general election in November.”
But they swear that they’ll be back for the general election! – Assuming, of course, that Hawaii Democrats stop with this silly notion that they know better than Washington does about who would be a suitable candidate for HI-01.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is re-evaluating whether to continue to spend money in this month’s Hawaii special election, Chairman Chris Van Hollen told POLITICO Thursday.
With former Democratic Rep. Ed Case and Democratic state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa splitting the Democratic vote against Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, Van Hollen said the committee recognized challenges to winning the race.
They’ve already dumped $243K into this race, so walking away now means admitting that they wasted a sizable amount of money. On the other hand, spending more and losing anyway will do the same thing, only intensified. On the gripping hand, the real issue is why they went against their own state’s political party structure in the first place…
Oh. Right. That last is because Van Hollen’s just not very good at recruiting candidates. Never mind.
Not a CPAC video, but Councilman Djou was within video range yesterday for just enough time for me to stop by and have a quick talk with him about the HI-01 election. Executive summary: he’s got a good shot at it. He’s the only Republican in a field of three (the other two are Democrats sniping at each other); his district performed pretty strongly for Bush and Lingle (and his Councilman’s District is inside HI-01, too); and his fundraising has been good. Djou’s site is here: check him out.
In person? Smart guy, strong on fiscal conservatism, in it to win it. And endlessly patient when it comes to explaining the local intricacies of Hawaiian elections.
This was known, by the way: Abercrombie is resigning in order to run for Governor. He’ll be ending his term at the end of February:
Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) announced today that he will be resigning from the House next month so he can run for governor, a move that sets the stage for a special election to fill his seat.
“I can now set the effective date of my resignation for February 28, 2010, which will enable state elections officials to plan for a timely and cost-effective special election for the First Congressional District to select a successor who will carry on the work of the people,” Abercrombie said in a statement.
Under Hawaii election law, the state’s chief election officer is tasked with setting the date for a special election, which would be held at least 70 days after the formal resignation.
Via The Caucus. This is a good pickup opportunity for the GOP: the NRCC recruited a good candidate (Charles Djou) and he’s been positioned to run for some time. Also, the Democrats are running two candidates. The actual nature of the special election hasn’t been determined yet, but we’re in a good position for this one.
And, most importantly, fairly solid speculation has it that current incumbent Neil Abercrombie will be running for Governor next year. Even if he doesn’t get the nomination for that, Abercrombie’s focus will be elsewhere, and Djou’s actually doing well in fundraising so far. So keep an eye on this race; and if you’re a Republican from Hawaii, I suggest that you think about helping out with either time or money.