Cook Political Report, establishing what we knew already:
In many respects, observing House Democrats trying to take back their majority is like watching a soccer team play a comparably skilled opponent with the field slanted 15 degrees against them.
Short version: Section V of the Voting Rights Act. We’ve gotten into the habit of creating majority-minority districts; the Democrats are utterly reliant on the black vote to win elections; members of the Congressional Black Caucus are always willing to work with the Republican party to keep their seats safe (and to get new majority-minority districts); white Democrats are a bit reluctant to vote for minority Democrats; and it’s really hard to get the courts to throw out a map that the GOP/CBC has collaborated on. Mix it all together, and hey presto! Structural GOP majority.
This drives the Online Left nuts, by the way: being largely white Democrats themselves and not entirely stupid, most of the smarter ones figure out eventually that they’re being given the shaft by minority Democrats. The problem is that while the Online Left largely despises minorities they’re also exceptionally well conditioned by now to never, ever let that show. So they just blame us, instead. Oh, and vent their ire on minority conservatives: those are apparently safe targets. (more…)