#rsrh QotD, Get On The Blandwagon! Edition.

Jay Cost, after demonstrating that ‘enthusiasm’ is most useful in the primaries, but perhaps not so much in the general:

…it is not necessarily a problem for Republicans if they are not tremendously enthused about their nominee next year. Conservative dislike of Obama will take care of any enthusiasm gap in the general election. What they need to find is a candidate who shares their values, who can appeal to the middle of the electorate, who will as president implement as much of the party’s agenda as possible, and who can retain the support of the independents during his term. That candidate might turn out to be dull. But he’d still be a keeper. And very possibly a winner.

I have to agree (and I’m coming pretty close to formally endorsing Tim Pawlenty, which should surprise nobody), and it’s partially because of this old graph:

There’s ‘bad,’ and then there’s ‘worse.’ I suspect that the Republican base has had a crash course in the differences between the two, over the last four years*…

Moe Lane

*Democratic activists absolutely hate it when you remind people that their party began seriously mucking things up when they took Congress in 2007. Pass it on!

#rsrh Jay Cost: Be afraid, Democrats.

Be… pretty afraid.  I’m going to summarize/translates Jay’s four reasons why the Democrats should be worried about the 2012 Republican candidate:

  1. We’ve got some serious fellas running.  Romney and Pawlenty; probably Daniels, at this point; and Jay considers Huntsman serious, though I don’t know if I do.  Yes, hold that objection for after the fold.
  2. We’re not going to see a proxy class warfare battle in ’12 like we did in Obama/Clinton in ’08. The aforementioned candidates are all pretty much variations on a theme: white governors with crossover appeal who are moderately conservative.
  3. Donald Trump isn’t going to be the nominee, and neither will any other fringe candidate. Behold the awesome moderating power of using primaries as opposed to caucuses!  Using ’08 again: it’s no coincidence that Obama won more caucuses, while Clinton won more primaries.
  4. There  will be no enthusiasm gap.  More on this after the fold.

Continue reading #rsrh Jay Cost: Be afraid, Democrats.

2010 battle maps: Stupak and No on Health care rationing.

Jay Cost (H/T: @MelissaTweets) has written an article on the Democratic party that is impossible to excerpt properly:

How To Divide a Party, In Three Easy Steps!

So, you’ve decided to become the leader of a big political party. Only one problem: it’s too big! What to do?

Well, you’ve come to the right place. Here at the Horse Race Blog, we’ve developed a three-step guide to making that broad party a little more…narrow. Just follow these simple instructions and your majority party will be smaller and a little easier to handle in no time!

…and summarizing said article (the very short version: it’s a bad idea to run a national party as if it were an urban regional one) doesn’t do it justice. Instead, I suggest that you first read it, then take a look at the maps after the fold. Continue reading 2010 battle maps: Stupak and No on Health care rationing.

Jay Cost indulges himself.

First by pointing out an usually-overlooked truth by the folks who like to yell at the Republican party’s leadership, and not talk to them:

…if the President’s job approval rating drops much more, the Republicans could score big gains in next year’s House elections. This is quickly becoming conventional wisdom. But something else has gone less commented upon: there are different types of Republicans who are known to populate Congress.

There were the Republicans of the 109th Congress – largely inert, happy to keep things the way they were, pleased as punch just to be in power. They’re the sort that Thomas Nast would have caricatured 125 years ago, and why Republican voters today still have so little faith in congressional Republicans.

These will probably not be the new Republicans on Capitol Hill in 2011 if there is a GOP surge. Instead, we’re more likely to see Republicans who consider themselves “citizen legislators,” the kind who take the 10th Amendment seriously, who plan to term limit themselves, who walk around the Capitol with a copy of the Constitution in their breast pocket, and so on. Enough of these true believing legislators could make life unpleasant for President Obama, who need only consider the experiences of Presidents Truman and Clinton if he has any doubts about this.

…yeah, pretty much. Speaking as a quote-unquote RiNO squish, the people that I’ve been seeing get prepped for next year for the House have been markedly to my right, and unapologetic about it. Speaking as a partisan Republican hack, they’re going to be lots of fun to have around. Given whose seats they’ll be taking away: twenty of them will be an indigestible lump for Congressional Democrats. Forty will be a nightmare for them. Any more, and Hell will be coming for breakfast. Continue reading Jay Cost indulges himself.