Mason-Dixon: Florida’s gone and thanks for playing, Barry.

The writing was on the wall when Suffolk stopped polling there, but Mason-Dixon confirmed it today: it’s over in Florida and Romney will win.

An exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll of likely voters along the Interstate 4 corridor finds Romney leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided.

“Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. “Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney’s going to win Florida.”

Which both campaigns know very well.  What I’m hearing privately – and it may also be public information right now – is that Obama for America has left the shell of its Florida operation up for appearances, but moved out its funding and national support out to other, more hopeful places.  Which downright sucks for anybody counting on national Democratic support for downticket races, but then I’m not the one who decided to make one of the two national parties to adopt a ruthlessly top-down strategy for 2012.


Even post-adultery, Ensign still more popular than Reid.

Admittedly, Ensign’s taken one heck of a drop, but he’s still at least more liked than disliked.

Favorable / Unfavorable
Sen. Ensign (R): 39 / 37 (May 12-14: 53 / 18)
Sen. Reid (D): 34 / 46

Job Approval/Disapproval
Reid: 43 / 55
Ensign: 48 / 45

Jim Geraghty thinks that Reid should try having an affair; I will not be cruel and write the first three things that come to mind*. I will however, note that the Presidential numbers:

Favorable / Unfavorable
Pres. Obama: 49 / 32
Job Approval/Disapproval
Obama: 47% Excellent/Good, 50% Fair/Poor

…seem a bit weak for somebody who won Nevada 55/43.

Moe Lane

*But not the fourth: “Nobody needs shoes that bad.”

Crossposted to RedState.

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