Every party has a bad offyear sometimes; Republicans did in 2006. Sooner or later they recover. But in the crosstabs of polls and in party strategists’ moves I see evidence that one group Democrats have been counting on is moving away from them: Hispanics.
Hispanics voted 71 percent for Barack Obama in 2012, 20 points above his national average of 51 percent. According to Gallup, Hispanics’ latest Obama job approval has sunk to 44 percent, just 3 points above the national average.
You probably haven’t heard much about this because Hispanics are scarce in all but one of the states with serious Senate races this year.
Michael Barone went on to note some potential examples of this dissatisfaction. To begin with, the DCCC has abandoned three challengers (one in Colorado, two in California), all three of whom were considered good pickup opportunities because of large Hispanic populations. There was also the Angela Giron recall election in Colorado’s state Senate: Geron lost her recall despite representing a district that was over 40% Hispanic. Lastly: the poor showing of Wendy Davis in the Texas governor’s race is for many reasons, to be sure… but the fact that she did horribly among Hispanic voters in the primary is probably not one of the least of those reasons.