Apr
09
2016
--

Colorado/Michigan conventions today.

Ted Cruz should clean up in the remaining delegate races in Colorado; he’s almost certainly going to win the state at this point, and might very well sweep.  Michigan is more of a ‘deciding who gets to be a pledged delegate’ situation. The general vibe there is that the state Republican party is staying neutral in the delegate allocation wars and just trying to match up delegates with the candidates they support, and that’s their call.  For that matter: that’s actually helpful, on a second ballot.  Which is why you probably haven’t heard anything about Michigan this weekend, I suspect.

Mar
08
2016
4

Elections tonight: Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi.

150 delegates at stake, and not a WTA race in the bunch.  Results will be tracked here: gonna be a late tonight on these, folks.  Hawaii we’ll probably find out in the morning, in fact.  If I had to put money down… Ted Cruz takes Idaho.  Donald Trump takes Mississippi, maybe: Cruz is possibly surging there big-time. Trump may have a better margin in Michigan, but John Kasich is likewise surging there, if not quite so big-time. And it’s not-Trump in Hawaii (too many voters with Chinese and Japanese ancestry there, and the state relies on Asian-Pacific tourism too much). I favor Marco Rubio for that race, but for no really scientific reason.

But that’s just my guesswork.

[UPDATE: rather better night for Trump in Michigan and probably Mississippi than I expected or perhaps only hoped, alas. They’re gonna call both pretty soon.]

Dec
05
2015
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My RedState post on Michigan single-ticket ballot reform is up.

Found here.  Short version: it’s not about the Presidential election! It’s about something else entirely! Maybe it’ll give all y’all a respite!  …Or something.

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Jun
18
2015
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Poor (name-ID, really) numbers for Democrats in Michigan right now.

Interesting numbers here:

If the November 2016 general election were held today, Bush would lose Michigan to Clinton by 9 percentage points, 46 percent to 37 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.

Clinton’s margin over Paul and Rubio in head-to-head matchups were both just under 4 percentage points and within the poll’s margin of error. She led Paul 44.5 percent to 40.7 percent and Rubio 42.4 percent to 38.7 percent.

Mind you, this is mostly name recognition, which is probably bad news for Bush. Still, Hillary Clinton having these kinds of numbers when facing off of relative unknowns (who are, mind you, even now becoming more known) suggests that Hillary is having name recognition bad news of her very own, too.  I know, I know: how sad, yes?

Via

Apr
18
2015
10

So, Gov. Rick Snyder (R, Michigan) is thinking of jumping into the 2016 fray.

Ed Morrissey has the details. On Gov. Rick Snyder’s actual prospects I’m… shrugging.  He’s a successful two-term governor in a swing state who has a solid conservative win (right-to-work) under his belt.  But we’ve got a lot of those right now, if you know what I mean?

And that’s the real story, isn’t it?  In 2012 that description would have – did – propel a candidate instantly to the top of the list.  In 2016 it’s – well, Snyder’s record is something to be proud of, but it’s nothing too special.  I really, really enjoy having a candidate pool this deep.  It gives us a margin for error.

Moe Lane

PS: Kind of significant that there’s no shortage of successful Republican politicians deciding that the political situation is worth a little speculative activity. We had a certain lack of that in 2012, alas.

Aug
25
2014
1

Quote of the Day, Of COURSE Gary Peters (D-CAND, Michigan-SEN) Is Still A Misogynistic Hypocrite edition.

I really should have expected that, honestly.

Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, R-Byron Center, went first by slamming U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, claiming he is a hypocrite, flip-flopper and beholden to President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

“Whenever men tell me about a war on women, I’m suspicious,” she said to a packed house at the Suburban Collection Showplace convention center in Novi. “Can you say hypocrisy? I’m not going to be lectured to by a man who pays the women in his office 67 cents on the dollar.”

Terri is, of course, referring to the minor awkwardness that Peters – like pretty much all the other Democratic party fatcats – talk up gender pay inequality, but never actually do anything about it close to home. As that NRSC (yes, I know*) article makes clear, Gary Peters is merely the worst of a bad bunch of Democratic Senate candidates with screaming cases of entitlement and absolutely no shame whatsoever.  And here’s something to also note: ever notice that you never read stories about how Democrats have raised their female staffers’ pay, in light of the situation?  It’s like they’ve decided to address the problem via the classic Beltway Establishment method of ignoring it completely and hoping that the media will go find another chew toy.

All of this via:

…and if you are a Michigan voter, Terri Lynn Rand would quite like you to vote for her.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*Data is, as they say, data.

May
23
2014
11

John Conyers loses appeal to be put on Michigan primary ballot.

This is… endlessly fascinating.

U.S. Rep. John Conyers, No. 2 in seniority in the House, lost his appeal Friday to get on the August primary ballot after Michigan election officials found problems with the Democrat’s nominating petitions.

The Secretary of State’s office affirmed a decision by Detroit-area election officials to keep Conyers off the ballot.

But the decision does not necessarily end Conyers’ 50-year career in Congress as his campaign manager has said Conyers would mount a write-in effort if necessary in the heavily Democratic district.

But I have a serious question: John Conyers is 85 years old. He’s been doing this for fifty years.  His district will almost undoubtedly elect another Democrat.  Why doesn’t he just… go home and sit in the sun?

Via Hot Air Headlines.

May
03
2014
1

John Conyers may be… off the ballot in Michigan-13?

What on Heaven goes on, up there in Michigan?

Veteran U.S. Congressman John Conyers does not have enough signatures to get on the Aug. 5 primary ballot, according to Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett.

Garrett told Local 4 on Friday that the signatures of two of Conyers’ circulators appear to be invalid.

This happened last cycle, only to our side: there are still Republican operatives who wince at the name “Thaddeus McCotter.” I do not think that this is actually political shenanigans, though.  When McCotter abruptly resigned in 2012 over, ah, ballot signature irregularities the seat was ultimately retained by the GOP: very few people actually expect that the Democrats will lose a D+34 district for anything less than, say, finding out that a Congressman had stashed 90 grand of bribe money in his freezer*.  But Conyers is apparently at real risk here, prior reports to the contrary: they’re going to make a final determination next week. (more…)

May
01
2014
6

SEIU takes it on the chin in Michigan.

(H/T: @presjpolk) Background: back during the largely unlamented Granholm administration, Michigan allowed SEIU to ‘organize’ caregivers who were only taking care of adult disabled friends and family members.  And by ‘organize caregivers’ I mean, of course, ‘raid government disability checks for phony union dues.’ It was a great scam, frankly: the money got deducted right from the Medicare or Medicaid check, the ‘members’ affected never got hit up for money directly, and the amounts per paycheck were small enough (this article gives $30/month as one example: it may be, in fact, the high-end) that people didn’t squawk too loudly.  Smart parasites know not to hurt the host too badly.

But then 2011 Rick Snyder became governor, and he promptly started deworming Michigan.  The technique was and is simple (Scott Walker used the same trick in Wisconsin): Snyder simply stopped making the process mandatory, and then waited to see what happened.  And what happened? (more…)

Apr
16
2014
3

Terry Lynn Land (R) now ahead of Gary Peters (D) in RCP average for Michigan-SEN.

The latest Mitchell Research poll has Land up six (44/38) over Peters; a previous Mitchell poll had her behind by one. This is enough to put her in front, overall; toss out the partisan polls and Terry Lynn Rand is ahead by rather more.  Looking at the rend line… well, Gary Peters can’t just seem to catch fire.  And I don’t think that the governor’s race is going to help, either: as of this moment  Rick Snyder is decently ahead, and in a comfortable place for a Republican governor in a blue state.

Hmm. Snyder needs a little work on his hair.  And how tall is he? – Dang, but I quite enjoy being spoiled for choice for 2016.

Moe Lane

Mar
12
2014
9

Michigan Woman: died in 2008, found in 2014… and voted in 2010.

Gee, I wonder who she voted for.

Voting records in Oakland County show [Pia] Farrenkopf, who has not been positively identified by the Medical Examiner’s Office, is shown as voting in the November 2010 gubernatorial election.

Pontiac city records indicate Farrenkopf registered to vote in 2006 and had not voted until 2010, but officials point out that could have been an administrative error and she may not have actually cast a vote.

The city clerk, who was not in that job in 2010, said infrequent voters tend to vote in presidential elections, like 2008, over gubernatorial elections like the one in 2010.

(more…)

Mar
06
2014
4

Gary Peters (D CAND, Michigan Senate) is now officially In Trouble.

He just replaced his campaign manager.  It’s one of the warning signs:

With Michigan looming as a now key Senate race, Democratic Rep. Gary Peters, who is locked in a tight battle with Republican Terri Lynn Land, has replaced his campaign manager.

Paul Tencher, who ran now-Sen. Joe Donnelly’s winning campaign for the Democrats in Indiana last cycle, will take over as the head of Peters’ campaign operation. Tencher will replace Julie Petrick, who is stepping aside for personal reasons, Peters said in a statement.

(more…)

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