Moe Lane

Rasmussen shows a fairly unexpected primary bounce in NH for GOP gubernatorial candidate John Stephen: the race has gone from 50/39 Lynch/Stephen to 48/46 Lynch/Stephen.  Polling for this race has been somewhat sparse, but it should be noted that there has been notable movement towards in both the Rasmussen and PPP polls.  With the NH-SEN and NH-02 (no good recent polling on NH-01) races showing a definite break towards the GOP, Lynch may have to start worrying.

And so should national Democrats: it will not fit their narrative if the New Hampshire GOP runs the table next Election Night, and if this poll bears up, that’s now a genuine threat.  In other words, rumors of the extinction of the New England Republican may have ended up being a bit premature…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

He has conceded the primary, will not seek a recount, and has endorsed Kelly Ayotte (video here).  Ayotte has accepted the concession with equal grace and politeness, calling Lamontagne a gentleman and a principled conservative (H/T: Hot Air). From now on, it’s all about defeating Paul Hodes in the general election.

Would that more politicians acted this properly when they lose a primary.  Michael Castle and Lisa Murkowski, I’m looking at you.

Moe Lane

PS: Jeanne Shaheen will be up for re-election in four years. This is not that far off in time, and I hope that NH conservatives will remember this dignified end to the 2010 campaign, if it turns out to be relevant to the one in 2014…

Crossposted to RedState.

With 85% of the vote in Kelly Ayotte is about 900 votes ahead of Ovide Lamontagne, after an evening where she was behind in the vote.  Which is easily close enough for a recount, no matter who wins – and, honestly, this is one time where it really is still up in the air.  My personal inclination would be to counsel whoever ends up in second to not push a recount*; it’s six weeks before the election and Paul Hodes (D CAND, NH-SEN) is desperate to delay the time before people start getting reminded that he supported cap-and-trade and Obamacare.

Amusingly, this race was considered ‘contentious’ before the GOP DE-SEN primary abruptly redefined that adjective.  I would hope that both campaigns take this as being, as they say, a moment of clarity…

Moe Lane

*Hey, both candidates were hardly shy about tapping into national conservative energy, time, and money; they can also handle getting a little national conservative advice.

Crossposted to RedState.

The incumbent John Lynch is generally considered safe enough, but he’s being outperformed in the primary by John Stephen. Complicating matters is that Lynch has generally been not really challenged over the last two election cycles (which are only two years in duration).

It’s interesting.

So.  Paul Hodes.  Congressman, Senatorial candidate, and a table-pounder on the subject of unemployment benefits (although judging from his polling, he probably has personal reasons for that right now).  Well, Congress had a vote last week on precisely that topic, after months of the Democrats trying to work out a way to turn their mere seventy vote majority in to actual legislation. So did Rep. Paul I-care-so-deeply-about-the-plight of the-unemployed-I-could-just-vomit Hodes enjoy casting his vote?  His vote of vindication?

In fact, did he even vote on it at all?

No, of course he didn’t.  Vegas beckoned, baby.

Vegas. (more…)

(H/T: Red Hampshire) It has been confirmed: Senatorial candidate Rep. Paul Hodes (D, NH) did in fact attend in person the Canadian trial lawyer fundraiser that was mentioned yesterday by both myself and others.  Interestingly, the Hodes campaign isn’t really trying to push back on this: they’re simply admitting that he went abroad in person to pick up trial lawyer lobbyist money.  I wonder why?

Today, Paul Hodes fought to end the influence that corporate and foreign special interests have in American elections by supporting the DISCLOSE Act. In the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, foreign corporations, Wall Street banks, and oil company CEOs have been given a green light to spend unlimited money anonymously in order to influence our elections. The DISCLOSE Act ends these corporate loopholes and forces Washington special interests to play by the same campaign rules that govern the actions of middle class Granite Staters.

Ah. Of course.  You see, there’s dirty corporate lobbyist money, and then there’s what Democratic politicians have to travel to Vancouver to pick up.  Hodes, being one of the latter, can clearly see the difference – the only problem is that ‘middle class Granite Staters’ might have their own opinions on the difference.  Best to just stare right ahead, say nothing that you have to, and hope that the controversy about your hypocrisy dies down quickly, no?

Such courage, the man shows.

Moe Lane

PS: The GOP primary hasn’t happened yet.  Feel free to pick one.

Crossposted to RedState.

I couldn’t improve on this Ed Morrissey post, no matter how hard that I tried.  So just watch the video:

…and privately chuckle at how expanded the New Hampshire Democratic party’s Maalox budget must be, these days. Ach, well, nobody held a gun to their head and made them run a howling progressive for Congress.

A GOP retention in NH & a GOP pick-up in AL.  The second is probably more noteworthy: until quite recently, it took real skill for a Democrat to lose a state legislature election in Alabama.  Heck, the Democrats still hold a four-to-three advantage there, and their national party has been reflexively attacking Southerners for three decades now.

There’s a lot of good news in this WMUR Granite State poll (as of this moment, we’re looking at retaining Gregg’s seat, and picking up both House seats), but Shea-Porter’s numbers are the most immediately interesting. 35/40 approval/disapproval (the worst she’s ever had); and she loses to all four hypothetical candidates:

In a race between Shea Porter and her best known challenger, Frank Guinta, 43% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Guinta, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 22% are undecided.

In a matchup with Rich Ashooh, 36% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Ashooh, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 3% prefer some other candidate, and 28% are undecided.

In a matchup with Bob Bestani, 36% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Bestani, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 30% are undecided.

And in a matchup with Sean Mahoney, 39% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Mahoney, 32% would vote for Shea Porter, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 28% are undecided.

“Shea Porter does not break 40% against any of her challengers a sign that she faces an extremely difficult challenge to keep her seat,” said [Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center].

(more…)

Come, I will conceal nothing from you: when I read this title (“Shea-Porter: Send the men home and Congress could pass health care reform”) I assumed that it was just some garden-variety nonsense about the war. Rep. Craol Shea-Porter is a Democratic Member of Congress who was active in the antiwar movement, so she’s going to be saying stupid things about national security at pretty much the same rate that you or I emit carbon dioxide.  This is hardly acceptable, but it’s a situation that exists.  People get used to it.

But no.  No, Rep. Shea-Porter actually just fell out of the Stereotypes about Women tree, and hit every branch on the way down.

Apparently, the reason why we don’t have health care rationing is because all the MEN (from both parties) in Congress are keeping all the WOMEN (who are all automatically nurturing caregivers) in Congress down. And the WOMEN in Congress are being kept from doing anything about it because the MEN won’t listen to them. And the WOMEN don’t complain about it because the MEN… I’m not sure what Rep. Shea-Porter thinks that the MEN are doing to keep the WOMEN down, although I have my suspicions at what she thinks what it’d take. And how does Rep. Shea-Porter know all of this? Because she talks about it with other WOMEN. In the bathroom.

In. The. Bathroom.

162 years since Seneca Falls, and we’ve come this far.

Moe Lane

PS: Rep. Shea-Porter has two potential Republican opponents: Frank Guinta and Bob Bestani.

Crossposted to RedState.

In this case, she apparently forgot completely that the antiwar movement was supposed to be all about fighting in Afghanistan, not that awful Iraq place. Why else would she be trying to abandon headlong the war that we’re fighting there now?

‘Because she was cynically lying about the need to win in Afghanistan all along?’ Interesting answer, but that would imply that Shea-Porter was smart enough to pull that off.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

On the principle that if a Congressional District that doesn’t exist can still generate 2,800 jobs (which also don’t exist) thanks to a ‘stimulus’ (which really doesn’t exist), it can generate a Congressman:

See also here. Congressional hopeful Bosse has also called for a national Phantom Congress Movement. There’s already been several people joining up; somebody should start an official website. Or run for their state’s own phantom CDs.

Or, heck, run for real ones.

Moe Lane

PS: Feel free to provide links to you, or somebody else, jumping on this particular bandwagon. The more creative, the better.

Crossposted to RedState.