Contra Chris Cizzilla, though, Obama’s 15 point victory in 2008 is not the only thing to consider about New Mexico: it’s that in 2010 the GOP took the governorship and lieutenant governorship, flipped a House seat, and came pretty close to getting another one (the state legislature was a wash).  New Mexico is a swing state, and if recent history is any predictor it’s busy swinging back the other way right now.

Mind you, this is good news for Tom Udall, who won’t be up for re-election until 2014; and by then the pendulum may have swung back yet again.  In the meantime, we’ll have to see who gets bitten by the Senatorial bug…

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: I should also note that, Senator Murray to the contrary, the Democrats were not sanguine about keeping this seat earlier in the month; also, the bench is thinner than it looks.  DSCC recruitment of House members for Senate seats didn’t work all that well for the Democrats in 2010.  Then again, very little else did, either.

Not four, contra the Fix.

And, just as naturally, the Denish campaign is explaining their involvement in all of this in classic Democratic fashion:

The [Albuquerque] Journal asked the Denish campaign whether it knew about the NEA’s ad ahead of time, whether it had approved it ahead of time and whether it approved of the ad now that information about Trujillo’s ex-husband had surfaced.

The campaign did not respond to any of the questions.

Susana Martinez for Governor.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

The district (currently listed as Likely Democratic by Cook) itself is interesting; it’s a traditionally Republican district and the last poll for it was prior to passage of the health care debacle. Rep. Heinrich not only supported the bill; he supported a public option, and is also on the wrong side of pretty much every conservative issue of the 111th Congress, from the ‘stimulus’ on. Heinrich even managed to co-sponsor card check legislation, which is particularly unfortunate for him right now. The basic theme to this campaign, in other words, is that the incumbent is not only too liberal for the district; he’s too liberal for his own local party, to the point where some Democratic delegates were voting for Barela in their pre-primary election.  This is not a sign of a secure incumbent.

Jon’s site is here.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

• AR-01: Rick Crawford – who is running against Marion Berry, AKA The Guy Who Can’t Remember That He’s Not Supposed to Be Taken Farm Subsidies – has a revamped website. It’s a definite improvement over the old version, and should allow for more and better networking. AR-01 is a R+8 district, and long overdue for a Congressman not as ready to ‘forget’ about his income (both agricultural and residential) as Berry is. Check Rick out.

• MO-SEN: The website’s name says it all: www.acorncarnahan.com. Apparently, Robin Carnahan (running against Roy Blunt) wasn’t very careful – or careful at all – in keeping distant from ACORN, and the Missouri Republican Party is laying the connections out, emails and all (H/T The Campaign Spot). And you have to wonder: what does her brother Russ Carnahan know, when did he know it, and is he done running away yet? It’s been a couple of months by now.

• NM-02: Cap-and-trade supporter Harry Teague‘s opponent Steve Pearce had himself a very good third quarter: 508K, donors overwhelmingly from inside the state. Teague hasn’t reported in, yet – but surely he’s not having problems getting funding from a R+6 district, right? Steve Pearce needs a better website, though: perhaps he can get the people who did Crawford’s…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

The decision not to pursue indictments was made by top Justice Department officials, according to a person familiar with the investigation, who asked not to be identified because federal officials had not disclosed results of the probe.

“It’s over. There’s nothing. It was killed in Washington,” the person told The Associated Press.

[monotone voice]
Completely unexpected.
Inconceivable.
Utterly shocking.
[/monotone voice]

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Only after the assembled citizens in the meeting room moved into the restaurant area and insisted that he answer public questions in a public forum did the congressman reluctantly stand and address the crowd. (I might add that the crowd consisted of people I recognized as both Republicans and Democrats.)

[snip]

One question that did get an answer was, since he had voted for legislation that would provide tax dollars to fight global warming, did he believe in global warming? His answer was, “I don’t know if I believe in it or not. I am not a scientist.”

Congressman Teague was also asked, if the cap-and-trade bill were put to a public vote in his district, did he believe the majority of the citizens would vote for it? He answered, “I believe they would.” This answer brought a resounding “NOOOO!” from the crowd.

I’d like to note also that the man’s been in the House of Representatives for barely half a year, and yet he’s already acquired the distressing Democratic habit of voting in favor of bills that he hasn’t bothered to read first. A sad condition, to be sure; and not one that’s apparently amenable to treatment, based on the way that it keeps breaking out among Pelosi’s and Reid’s caucuses. Fortunately, in this particular case there’s a ready enough alternative in Steve Pearce.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.