A little bit of a relapse today, so let me just grab three pretty-good analyses of yesterday’s NY-09 results* from RCP and go with them. First off: Michael Barone’s “NY-9: Stunning Repudiation of Chuck Schumer.” After noting that disgraced Congressman Weiner was a protege of Schumer, Barone points out:
In January 2007, just in time for the new Democratic majority in Congress, [Shumer] published a book, Positively American: Winning Back the Middle-Class Majority One Family at a Time. It is a thoughtful essay on how Democrats can win the votes of the kind of voter Schumer himself has won over in his career as a congressman and senator, with specific policy recommendations as well as public relations advice. As one of the three Democratic leaders of the Democratic majority in the Senate—and by common reckoning the one who outshines in intellect the other two put together—Schumer has played an important role in fashioning Democratic policies, including but not limited to the 2009 stimulus package and Obamacare.
This vote is a startling repudiation of those policies by just the voters Schumer was hoping to win over.
As well it should have been: I respect Michael Barone and everything, but ‘smarter than Gillibrand & Reid[**]’ isn’t precisely hard and I suspect that voters have a bit longer memories about statements like ‘porky little amendments‘ than Schumer might wish to admit. Personally, I still think that Schumer was vulnerable in 2010 – oh, well, that ship has sailed. It’s certainly true that the Democrats have a problem with blue-class workers these days. Continue reading Some round-ups on NY-09.
That’s what Stuart Rothenberg is hearing, at least:
Democrats argue that losing this seat would force them to eliminate a different Democratic seat when the Legislature draws new lines later this year or next in addition to making the redrawn 13th district (Staten Island/Brooklyn) more Republican.
“This isn’t about one seat. It’s about two or three. The party’s $500,000 investment is insurance for the delegation, not for Weprin,” one Democratic insider insisted.
Continue reading #rsrh Hold up: NY-09 NOT going away if Turner wins?
Don raises an interesting point: if supporting the Ground Zero Mosque was such a no-brainer, then why are Democrats getting so bent out of shape about Bob Turner (R) pointing out that Dave Weprin (D) enthusiastically supported it being built?
Don already knows the answer, of course:
If supporting the building of the mosque is the right thing to do, why not stand by those words that were said 13 months ago? Oh wait, that high-moral-ground stand might cost Democrats a seat in Congress. So what liberals are saying is that they are willing to stand up for unpopular causes — unless doing what they say is right may cost them a few votes.
Continue reading #rsrh Don Surber, Turner/Weprin & the Ground Zero Mosque.
PPP spells it out, and it’s good news for Republican Bob Turner.
Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.
PPP goes on to blame the President for this one (both candidates have positive favorable ratings, although Bob Turner’s is notably better). To give you an idea of how bad things are for Obama in NY-09, check this out: “Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.” It would seem that President Obama is highly unpopular with orthodox Jewish voters (Turner leads 56/39) and people who care about Israel (Turner leads there 71/22) right now. Go figure.
So… I am going to go out on a limb, here:
PS: Bob Turner for NY-09. DOOM or not, no time to get cocky.
It’s always hard to judge special election prospects from the polls, but if the teaser that Democratic pollster Tom Jensen put out on September 8th plays out tonight at 11 PM, it might be enough for the coveted DOOM tag for Dave Weprin.
Well, possibly not coveted by Weprin. We’ll see tonight: I should update this post then. Unless I don’t.
PS: Bob Turner for NY-09.
But before we start talking about implications, let’s review the situations.
- NY-09. This D+5 seat was vacated by Anthony Weiner after pictures surfaced… and I don’t need to end that sentence: it’s never good for a politician’s career when the phrase ‘pictures surfaced’ is used to describe his or her situation. The race thus is between Republican Bob Turner and Democrat David Weprin… and Democrats are even now going frantic. They’re going frantic because an independent pollster now shows Turner in the lead (which has been consistent with other polling trends); they’re going frantic because Tuner has picked up several key endorsements from prominent New York Democrats (over Weprin’s – really, President Obama’s – Israel policy); and they’re going frantic because the entire Weprin campaign effort seems to be infected with incompetence, starting at the local level* and working all the way up to the DCCC itself. The Democrats have dumped half a million dollars in this race, and are right now grimly contemplating the possibility that this half a million is buying them bupkis.
- NV-02. Meanwhile, this R+5 district is increasingly looking like a retention for the GOP. Dean Heller vacated the seat after being tapped to become Senator John Ensign’s replacement (Ensign, as you probably remember – and you probably were happy to forget – left office under what we shall charitably call ‘under a cloud’); Republican Mark Amodei will be facing Democrat Kate Marshall. The DCCC has essentially written this district off, at this point: their primary strategy, if you’ll pardon the pun, was to get Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller (elections have consequences, people) to sign off on a winner-take-all election (which would have splintered the Republican vote), only to be told no by the courts. Since then, Marshall hasn’t been able to make anything stick – including linking Amodei with Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan – and Amodei is favored to win. Incidentally, the Right has put about 750K into this race, including about $500K from the NRCC.
Continue reading Democrats facing electoral disasters in NV-02, NY-09?
That takes skill.
This is the NY-09 special election, which is starting to freak Democrats out in precisely the manner that past NY special elections freaked Republicans out, and for the same reason: watching a campaign slide slooooooooowly off of the beam, despite your best efforts, has a certain ‘cosmic terror’ feel to it. Anyway, you already knew that [Weprin]* ducked and ran from a debate last week; but what you may not have heard is that [Weprin]* is trying to disassociate himself from the President*. Apparently, Obama’s not doing all that great in NY-09 these days.
Via Jammie Wearing Fool, who also notes that [Weprin]* is more than happy to take Organizing for America’s help. Just as long as they stay at the back of the bus, of course.
Bob Turner for NY-09.
*He’s also allegedly trying to get people into Bob Turner’s campaign… which the[Weprin]* campaign denied in one of the most perfunctory and subdued denials in recent NY political history.
The Hill reports that a GOP-commissioned poll for the special election to replace disgraced Anthony Weiner in NY-09 shows a tie. I was able to get my hands on a copy of the poll results, and the numbers are encouraging: 42/42 split between Republican Bob Turner and Democrat David Welpern (+7 for Turner, -1 for Welpern from July results); 300 likely voters; 24/60/15 Republican/Democratic/Independent voter sample (21/35/33 liberal/moderate/conservative). That R/D/I number looks about what Siena was finding, which suggests that the sample isn’t skewed too horribly.
Usual caveats apply: it’s not an independent poll. Still, if you couple this with the Daily News’ endorsement of Republican Bob Turner over Democrat David Welpern (the Daily News is fairly reliably Democratic in its endorsements), and of course the earlier Siena poll from a few weeks ago that showed Welpern seriously under-performing, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that maybe there’s a certain amount of brand damage going on here for the Democrats. Continue reading Turner/Weprin tie in NY-09?
This is, of course, the special election called for NY-09; the seat was vacated after incumbent Democrat Anthony Weiner got caught showing his to his Twitter followers. There was supposed to be a debate tonight, but it’s been canceled at the last second. Bob Turner‘s (the Republican candidate) campaign is calling said cancellation ‘hiding‘ – which is what I’d call it, myself.
Weprin is blaming
Hurricane Tropical Storm Irene for the cancellation (I’ll let New Yorkers on the scene decide whether that’s a legitimate excuse), but there’s widespread suspicion that the real reason that Weprin is dodging the debate is because there’s only one real answer to the question “Why did you think that the national debt’s only four trillion, Davey?” – and that’s “Because David Weprin thinks that the universe started on January 20, 2009*.” Continue reading David Weprin (D-CAND, NY-09) cuts and runs from Monday’s debate.
Which is to say, they have the Republican candidate in NY-09’s special election (Bob Turner) being comfortable enough to say stuff like this – about himself:
“Suddenly,” Mr. Turner said of voters, “they are faced with the most brilliant, dynamic, charismatic, Scott Brownesque candidate,” referring to the Massachusetts senator. Or, he added, people are so angry with the president “that they can put up some tired old guy with no political experience and he could actually win.”
“You can pick your poison,” he said. “I suspect that behind it is a great deal of discontent in the district.”
I imagine so, myself. It’s still a tough district to win for the GOP… but oddly enough, Democratic voters in NY-09 apparently may not be pleased with a political party whose members have been known to forward pictures of their genitalia to young women. Much like Republican voters in NY-26 apparently were not pleased with a political party whose members have been known to advertise (shirtless, no less) for adultery on Craigslist. But when you put it that way then people find it harder to find a deeper meaning in any random Congressional election.