Moe Lane

That’s the race between Republican Rob Cornilles and Democrat Suzanne Bonamici to replace the disgraced (and resigned) Democrat David Wu.  It’s mail-in, but they’re going to be reporting the results tonight as the votes are tabulated: and I don’t know who is going to win.  The district has a hefty Democratic lean, and it’s reflected in the percentage of ballots that have come back, so if the ballots break down along party lines Bonamici will win.  The question is, how many Democratic voters are willing to overlook the aforementioned resignation in disgrace?

No, it’s a valid question: the American electorate tends to punish politicians for sex scandals; and if they can’t punish the politician they’ll punish his party.  Anybody’s guess about whether that will happen tonight, of course.

This one is the special election called for Oregon’s First District after incumbent David Wu retired.  Suddenly.  Under circumstances best described as “murky.”  Or possibly “neurological.”  It’s a D+8 district, but the Democrats are certainly acting as if it’s in play.  Rob’s a small business owner who ran against Wu in 2010 and gave the incumbent his toughest re-election fight; we talked about his chances in this contest, and a few other things as well.

Rob’s site is here; the special election is January 31st, but early voting starts in mid-January.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Background: OR-01 is a D+8 district which has not gone Republican in decades.  This should normally make it reasonably safe for the Democrats… except that the seat is vacant because David Wu… well.  Something happened in David Wu’s head.  Possibly something neurological; definitely something that caused what was at best a sex scandal and at worst… something else.  So – and despite the best efforts of his caucus – Wu resigned; which may not actually help his party all that much.  The recent record suggests that voters like to punish parties when one of their House members gets caught showing theirs off; and this situation would certainly qualify. (more…)

…at least, he would have if DeFazio had been a Republican saying this about a Republican President:

[DeFazio] added: “One guy asked me… give me 25 words what [Obama's] about and what he’s done for me. I’m like… ‘it could have been worse?”

But DeFazio is a Democrat, so he’s probably safe (at least, in the primary): the Left will either be too scared or too incompetent to replace him in a primary.  Then they’ll turn around and give DeFazio money, because that’s what the Democratic base does.

Hey, if they won’t even respect themselves then don’t ask me to respect them, either.  It’s not my fault that they’re that way.

Via Hot Air Headlines.

Moe Lane

PS: Also, Oregon is apparently in play.  Umm… thanks?

I guess somebody explained to him that ‘having a sexual encounter’ with the daughter of a campaign contributor – particular one one-third your age – doesn’t get magically better when you explain that the whole thing was consensual.  Whatever she might or might not be saying about the matter.  Anyway, Wu’s on his way out the door: slowly but surely, the Democratic establishment is learning that leaving a Charlie Rangel or a Pete Stark or a Jim Moran or a …Sheila Jackson Lee** in place does their party no favors.

Anyway, at this rate I am never going to get to put together a list of Democrats I Plan To Help Remove in 2012*: the best candidates keep petulantly quitting before I can compile one.

Moe Lane (more…)

And did Wu’s old staff know about the incident?

Sorry to put it that bluntly. It’s just that Rep. David Wu (D, OR*) has gotten increasingly erratic… actually, let us not mince words: Wu has been acting nuttier and nuttier for the last year. This RedState diary from February of this year tells what we thought was the tale: strange emails, bizarre statements, erratic behavior… and two pieces of interesting data:

• The first is that Wu’s campaign shut down in the final days of the campaign, after several events (most notably: a series of bizarre, possibly alcohol-related, but not obscene emails and photos sent to staffers) at the end of October triggered at least two interventions.
• The second is that seven members of Wu’s staff (including his chief of staff) resigned in February of 2011.

The (heavy) implication at the time was that the second event was because of the first… which would make this story one where Wu is kind of going crazy, and his staff (not being trained mental health professionals, after all) are quietly extricating themselves from a somewhat awkward situation. Which may not be nice of those staffers, but, really, what were they going to do? After all, it’s not like anyone was saying that Wu did anything felonious…

“Sources: Young woman accuses Oregon Rep. David Wu of aggressive, unwanted sexual encounter”

Well, then. (more…)

Background: in 2009 there was a bit of a scandal when two Democratic legislators (one from the Senate and one from the House) parlayed their positions in the state legislature to score cushy government jobs*.  In response, the (Democratic-controlled) Oregon House of Representatives passed a bill imposing an one-year moratorium on taking state jobs on exiting legislators, unless those jobs were “publicly advertised and the state seeks out at least three qualified applicants.”  The bill died in the (Democratic-controlled) Senate, apparently because the Senate didn’t want to offend the two aforementioned legislators.

But it’s 2011, and the Oregon House is now split 50/50 Democratic/Republican, and the bill (House Bill 3446) has been reintroduced in the House – and passed unanimously by that body.  The ratio is still pretty lopsided Democratic in the Oregon Senate, but there may be more movement this go-round.  If it doesn’t… well, it may become a bit of an election issue: apparently Oregon state politics are a bit notorious for their revolving-door system for legislators.

So we’ll see.

Moe Lane

*This interpretation of events will no doubt offend some, but then I’ve never really felt bad about hurting the feelings of people who voluntarily apologize on behalf of other people who can go from $22 grand/year salaries to $95-122 grand/year salaries simply because they don’t feel like running for elections anymore.

If the man was blacking out and wandering around unattended on Election Day because of his reaction to “a common mental health drug” – do I even want to know what that’s an euphemism for? – and if this is part of a pattern of behavior that led to the end of his marriage and the mass resignation of his staff*… then maybe this guy shouldn’t be a Congressman.

Moe Lane

PS: Even in Oregon, “crazy” should not beat “Republican.”  Just to make that clear.

*Who, by the way, don’t get any credit for that, given that they all deliberately went and got somebody who they all think is crazy re-elected.  We’re just all fortunate that David Wu’s apparently fragile mental state is more conducive towards “dressing like a tiger” than it is something more, ah, problematical…

John’s the head of the Oregon Tea Party, former Congressional candidate, and may be a possible Congressional candidate again.  We talked a little of the state of the state of Oregon (which is better than you’d expect, in practical terms):

There’s also some interesting bits on David Wu.  Check it out.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

I got tipped on this by RedState diarist BigGator5, who is as gobsmacked as I am that this happened to a (presumed) Chris Dudley (R CAND, OR-GOV) supporter.  Short version for those who can’t see/haven’t seen the video: a guy was filming Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber at a political event held in a church.  He was asked to turn off the camera: he refused, on First Amendment grounds.  Now, let me establish, for the record: this is a shaky argument, at best, when it comes to private property – even when the site is hosting a public event.  So, I can easily enough concede that a duly-authorized representative of the church, Kitzhaber campaign, and/or group hosting the event may have indeed had the right to demand that the man turn off his camera.

I do not concede that said representative had the right to smash the guy’s camera in his face.

Note the use of a second camera, which is useful for establishing that no violent activity on the cameraman’s sparked the assault and battery. That was pretty much an unprovoked attack, there: and I’d like to know whether or not the assailant was involved with the Kitzhaber campaign or not. I’d also like to know whether the Democrats quite understand that if you want to punch back twice as hard, you have to wait for your opponents to actually punch you in the first place…

Moe Lane (Crossposted)

Scott’s running a campaign that’s making the DCCC nervous – to the point where they’ve decided to throw money at his opponent as part of their DOOMList – and we spoke this morning about that and other matters.

Scott’s site is here, and it’s a measure of the cycle that we’re legitimately talking about taking seats in Oregon. Roll on November…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.