Moe Lane

They say that nobody loves a traitor. The Pat Toomey campaign wants you to remember that usually one person does, at least: the traitor himself.

Two things:

1. President Obama ripped off former President Bush so blatantly in that speech praising Specter that the former should have paid the latter royalties; and
2. It’s not every day that people are given a second chance to correct the mistakes of a past election. Pat Toomey for Senate. RedState likes him.

Moe Lane

(more…)

:sound effect of mouthful of coffee being sprayed across the monitor:

Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.

These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.

:pause:

Wow. (more…)

This one is of his speech that Toomey did for the Gathering, not the interview afterward: I’m not sure if there is going to be a better video copy of it, so enjoy. Pat Toomey is, of course, the guy who scared Arlen Specter into getting primary challenged by the Democrats instead of the Republicans, which is probably not what Specter had in mind. Such a pity, really.

As the video notes, Toomey also has a book (The Road to Prosperity) out.

Moe Lane (more…)

I quibble at Megan McArdle’s adjective: ‘funny’ works ever so much better.  After all, the GOP is the one laughing at the way that Specter’s race is shaping up: we have gone from a situation where Specter, Toomey, and a liberal Democrat would conspire together to create a vicious primary fight and a weakened Specter to a situation where… Specter, Toomey, and a liberal Democrat would conspire together to create a vicious primary fight and a weakened Specter.  Only now the vicious primary fight is happening all the way over there, from our point of view; and I suspect that Megan may not be entirely checked out on Pennsylvania politics.  Pat Toomey may not have been a shoo-in; but a Republican who can hold a D+2 district that went for Kerry & Gore should be taken seriously in a general election, especially since Toomey’s going to have a more or less easy primary of it.

And the best part?  The Democrats were so looking forward to having somebody who was one of them in this race.  Alas, the comfort of the Democratic party’s leadership overrides the needs of their base.  Again.

You can donate to Pat Toomey here, by the way.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

[UPDATE]: And if you think those numbers are bad, wait until Specter caves on card check to appease his new owners.  His constituents are purely going to hate that.

Via Hot Air Headlines, Nobody loves a traitor.

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s 2010 reelection lead over Republican challenger Pat Toomey has shrunk to a tie with 45 percent for Specter and 44 percent for Toomey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters say 49 – 40 percent that Sen. Specter does not deserve reelection.

[snip]

Specter, first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980 but who switched to the Democratic Party earlier this year, holds a commanding 55 – 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak in the race for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side Toomey buries Peg Luksik 47 – 6 percent.

[snip]

In other trial matchups Specter would defeat Luksik 47 – 40 percent, while Toomey would edge Sestak 39 – 35 percent.

That last bit may be what dooms Sestak’s candidacy… except, of course, that the Democrats are already trying their best to sabotage his (and Maloney’s, over in NY) primary challenge anyway. Meanwhile, the NRSC is backing Toomey, thus avoiding the bloody primary that we were all expecting and dreading before Specter changed sides.

So: thanks for not retiring, Arlen! Make sure that you vote for health care rationing!

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

‘A bad harvest, and a bloody primary!’

The good news: Pat Toomey’s (R Cand, PA) campaign (donate here) is reporting that he raised 1.6 million dollars in the second quarter of 2009.

Mr. Toomey’s strong first campaign quarter fundraising compares favorably with those of successful U.S. Senate challengers in the last election. In fact, he has raised more than every successful 2008 challenger. In his first quarter as a Senate candidate, Mr. Toomey has raised more than candidates Al Franken (D-MN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Kay Hagen (D-NC), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Mark Begich (D-AK), all of whom went on to defeat incumbent U.S. senators

The other good news: Joe Sestak’s (D Cand, PA) primary campaign against Arlen Specter (Arlen Specter, PA) is being reasonably well funded. (more…)

Nobody loves a traitor.

A little while back Greenberg* Quinlan Rosner put out a poll that showed Specter leading 55-34 over Sestak in the primary. Interestingly, (via DoubleplusUndead, via @JustKarl), one hope for Sestak is apparently that he actually leads Specter among Democrats who know both candidates, 52-44.  The difference is due to the fact that Sestak is only known to about 30% of the PA Dem electorate.

Full disclosure: I don’t care who wins this primary, just as long as it’s won ugly, expensively, and with a lot of promising political careers permanently blighted by petty spite and bitter grudges.  That being said, both candidates have complications:

• Sestak – more accurately, Sestak’s supporters – are probably assuming that getting his recognition numbers up will not erode his lead among voters aware of both.  That may be justified; on the other hand, most of the voters aware of both are probably also more committed or ideological Democrats.  Assuming Sestak runs, how more moderate and conservative voters will react once they take a good look at him will be interesting to see.
• Specter’s major problem?  If  you believe this poll, he faces the problem that if he wants to win the primary he has to start voting the Democratic party line on everything.  No more contrary votes for him, which is going to make it problematical when/if he gets out of the primary to face Pat Toomey**.

This is not the primary campaign that the VRWC contemplated happening a year ago, but it’s got its points.  Believe the internals of that poll, and either way Toomey will be facing a candidate that’s going to be squarely identifying himself with a Democrat who’s more palatable to his base than, perhaps, the Pennsylvanian electorate.  And it’ll be interesting to see just how the parties are perceived next year, because even right this second they’re not really all that far apart…

Moe Lane

*Yeah, the same guy that gave Rahm Emanuel free rent while Emanuel was doing DCCC business with his company. And whose wife put up that legislation designed to gut the organic food industry. What’s your point?

**Who, by the way, comes across as pretty sharp when you talk to him.

Crossposted to RedState.

It’s not ‘official’, but unless Sestak is sufficiently a practical joker as to send his supporters handwritten phony fund-raising notes, it’s happening. Guess that means that Arlen Specter is going to have to face a tough primary battle after all.

Meanwhile…

Moderate Pa. Republicans warming to Toomey

Moderate Republican leaders have stopped publicly pushing to recruit a less-conservative alternative to front-runner Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, a sign that he has begun to calm concerns about his electability.

Toomey has redoubled efforts to court skeptics in the party establishment in the two weeks since former Gov. Tom Ridge declined to enter the race for the GOP nomination despite the pleadings of prominent moderates.

Karma. It’s what’s for dinner.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.