Mar
25
2016
7

The Good News and the Bad News about Obama’s poll numbers.

The Bad News is that Barack Obama’s poll numbers (which are abruptly no longer underwater) are reflecting the fact that the Republican party is busy having an unexpected civil war in its primary, not to mention an existential crisis that might end up with people like me leaving politics for good. The Good News is that President Obama isn’t actually doing anything.  Yes, he’s waving around Merrick Garland around, more or less perfunctorily; and yeah, he went to Cuba and allowed himself to be used as a mobile prop.

But generally all of this is telling the man that being King Log is a good working strategy for him.  I don’t mind him being King Log.  Him being King Log works for me.  At least it’s predictable.  And, indeed, not particularly productive, which is nice because, you know, we’re in the middle of a civil war in the Republican party and so forth…

Mar
16
2016
7

Quote of the Day, Yeah, The Polls Are Garbage edition.

My RedState colleague streiff, on the fundamentals:

If polls are to be meaningful the MUST do two things. First, they must predict the order in which candidates finish. This isn’t terribly hard. A half dozen RedState commenters could accurately pick the order of finish in just about any race this cycle. The polls can’t reliably do that. And I’m not talking about squeakers where one candidate edges another by a point or less. I’m talking about missing the wholesale collapse of a candidate. Second, they must be able to get the vote, if not within MOE, by at least order of magnitude. When the second place finisher is understated by 13 points the polling is simply broken. It doesn’t need a tweak it needs massive rethinking.

The underlying problem in this cycle thus far is that it’s fairly easy to get Donald Trump’s range: anywhere from 35-41%. Where it always breaks down is what happens after that, and ‘what happens after that’ is fairly significant when we’re fighting for every delegate. If the polls had been more accurate then Marco Rubio might have dropped out last week, which would have probably given Ted Cruz Missouri and North Carolina and given him a good shot at Illinois*. The good news there is that the calendar is going to be a little less crowded from here on in, so we may see better work.

Or not.

Moe Lane

*Mind you, I’m not going to play should-haves: we don’t have time travel, so the exercise is pointless.

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Sep
14
2015
2

CBS Buries the Lede in shock New Hampshire poll showing Bernie Sanders at 52%.

I’m trying not to weigh in too heavily on the polls this early out, but this is ridiculous. Not to mention, a provocation. And, for some odd reason, not easy to embed.

norah

(more…)

Nov
04
2014
1

A PSA on ‘early exit polls,’ ‘polling reports,’ and 95% of reporting from now until the polls close.

All of it? Bullshit.

Via

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Oct
13
2014
7

Democrats: The polls are skewed!

Oh, my.

Democrats have a new message in the 2014 race for the Senate: Don’t trust the polls.

The party is stoking skepticism in the final stretch of the midterm campaign, providing a mirror image of conservative complaints in 2012 about “skewed” polls in the presidential race between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney.

Democrats who do not want their party faithful to lose hope — particularly in a midterm election that will be largely decided on voter turnout — are taking aim at the pollsters, arguing that they are underestimating the party’s chances in November.

First off, let me give the Democrats all the response they really deserve to this: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Ahem. (more…)

Oct
07
2014
--

Quote of the Day, Larry Sabato Knows His Audience edition.

:Opening mouth:
:Closing mouth:

It’s true.

America has a love-hate relationship with polls. If you’ve clicked on this column, you likely cull through the latest survey numbers every chance you get.

They’re like Twinkies, really: tasty, not really good for you in large quantities, and made out of things that you almost certainly don’t want to see, close up and personal.

Sep
13
2014
4

The Democratic Party’s War on Women rhetoric doesn’t seem to be working.

Ooooh.

The article doesn’t disappoint, either.

An important bellwether is the question of which party voters would prefer to control Congress, and it has long been the case that men prefer a Republican Congress and women favor a Democratic Congress.

But the poll conducted Sept. 3-7 found that women’s Democratic preference had shrunk to a 47%-40% margin — down from 51% -37% a month earlier. The swing was especially sharp among white women, who gave Democrats a 4 point edge in August; in the new poll, Republicans enjoyed 48%-40% advantage.

(more…)

Jul
29
2014
2

Fox News Poll: 57% would tell Obama to go away if they were Democratic candidates.

Man, that’s just cruel.

A new poll that asked voters to put themselves in the shoes of 2014 Democratic candidates found that a majority would not want President Obama to join them on the campaign trail.

According to the Fox News survey released Tuesday, 57 percent of respondents said no to hypothetical appearances with the president, whose job approval rating in the same poll stands at 42 percent. Only 41 percent said they would want Obama to join them on the stump.

(more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Jun
13
2014
7

KTSP/SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota shows Mark Dayton, Al Franken having problems.

What a lovely poll that is.

Well, it’s lovely from my point of view, at least.

Gov. Mark Dayton and Sen. Al Franken survived recounts when they won their first elections to the governor’s office and U.S. Senate. According to our latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, they might have to sweat our close races again in 2014. Franken clings to a six-point lead over his closest Republican challenger Mike McFadden, 48 percent to 42 percent. The poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.1 percent.

[snip]

Governor Dayton also faces a potentially close re-election bid. He also leads his nearest competitor by just six points. The GOP-endorsed candidate for governor, Jeff Johnson, trails Dayton 46% to 40%.

(more…)

May
06
2014
3

Harry Reid: The polls are skewed!

Well now.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid maintained that his party’s candidates lead “virtually all over the country,” rejecting polls that undermine that claim as compromised by bad methodology.

“We’re ahead virtually all over the country,” Reid replied during a Senate briefing when asked about a Pew poll showing that the current political environment is more hostile towards Democrats than in 2010. “I don’t need to run through the states with you, but, we’re doing okay.”

Reid said recent polls aren’t reliable because pollsters can’t get in touch with a lot of voters who use cellphones.

(more…)

Mar
18
2014
7

This is, remarkably, Rick Scott’s best poll yet.

This would normally be a horrible poll for Governor Rick Scott…

34% Crist
33% Scott
…17% Somebody Else
17% Don’t Know/No Answer

…except of course that the polling historically has been worse for Scott since, well, forever.  Essentially, the reason why Charlie Crist has gotten this far is that he always polled very well against Scott; will that remain true, now that Florida voters internalize the idea that voting for Charlie Crist means, well, voting for Charlie Crist?  Time will, as they say, tell. (more…)

Dec
02
2013
3

Senator Al Franken (D, Minnesota) is in more trouble than the Democrats want to admit.

I do not say, Al Franken will be beaten next year.  I do say, Al Franken can be beaten next year. He is not as invulnerable as apparently everybody else thought that he was:

Franken’s seat currently sits on the ‘watch list’ of D.C. prognosticators Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato – both identifying the race as a ‘likely’ hold for Franken, with the caveat that the race may yet become competitive.

Such caution seems validated in light of a new St. Cloud State University poll that was released on Wednesday, which shows Franken receiving a job approval rating of just 39 percent among his constituents – 18 points behind the state’s senior delegation member Amy Klobuchar at 57 percent.

Fifty-one percent of Gopher State residents rated Franken’s job performance negatively.

That’s a poll of adults – which, contra that article, is not actually great news for Franken.  Adult voters tend, by and large, to skew a bit more Democratic than likely voters*.  Mind you, more polling is needed. (more…)

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