Aug
21
2013
10

I reserve the right for *my* political party to wreck the day of *your* political party.

Reading this and this is more or less forcing me to remind folks of something: it is, in point of fact, perfectly legitimate for a political party to use its control of a state legislature to screw over the opposition party.  Note the use of the term ‘legitimate.’ I’m not saying that it’s nice or decent or even smart; merely that this is the life that we have chosen.

Case in point: Illinois legislature was, and is, heavily Democratic.  In 2010 the Republicans gained four federal Congressional seats, kept a fifth that they were expected to lose.  In 2011 the state legislature, having to redraw the maps anyway because Illinois was losing a seat*, engaged in ruthless redistricting.  In 2012 the Republicans lost five federal Congressional seats**  And that is how it works.  Partisan affiliation is not a protected class. You identify with a political party, you take the political party’s lumps.  Simple as that.   Don’t like that particular set of lumps?  Switch parties: maybe the new set of lumps will be more to your liking. (more…)

Jan
27
2013
2

Reminder on redistricting.

People who whine about Republican redistricting absolutely HATE it when you bring up Section V of the Voting Rights Act, and will resolutely ignore (if you let them) the racial gerrymandering that it more or less mandates.  So be sure to ask those people point-blank if their redistricting ‘reform’ position means that they’re going to openly advocate for eliminating majority-minority districts – and do that preferably when they’re in front of an audience with a decent amount of minorities in it.

Personally, I’m not fond of gerrymandering.  But the aforementioned Democratic whining on the subject mostly comes down to white Democrats whining about Republicans because they don’t have the guts to criticize minority Democrats; so I can’t say that my sympathy for the whiners’ plight is overwhelming, sorry.

Jun
09
2012
2

Darcy Burner: Bringing The Crazy to the WA-01 Election!

I had heard that Darcy Burner – best known for being a Democrat who couldn’t beat a Republican in Washington state during the two worst election cycles for Republicans in living memory – spoke yesterday at Netroots Nation in Providence, RI (I happen to be in town myself for the much cooler Breitbart Awards conference that the Franklin Center/the Heritage Foundation is putting on). Feeling all very nostalgic about Ms. Burner and everything, I decided to see if she had been up to anything. Turns out? Yup! Darcy’s doing what she does best: making life easier for Republicans.

It goes like this. WA-01 is a recently redrawn district (more on this later) that is going to be strenuously fought over this election cycle.  It was held by Democrat Jay Inslee, but he resigned the seat in order to run for Governor. As everyone reading this probably knows by now, House seats may not be assigned; if there is an empty seat then there must be an election. So there will be two elections in November: one for the month remaining in the current, and one for the next, full term. This happens all the time, and people should treat the news that this sort of thing causes headaches for the national parties with all the respect that such news deserves: yup, you guessed it, none at all.
(more…)

Apr
15
2012
--

Cook: State Republican parties gave national GOP 9 seats for 2012.

A much better gift than a tie or set of dishes, by the way.

Cook Political Report has more or less formalized their 2012 redistricting scorecard; their final score is a gain of one Republican seat, based solely on redistricting.  Cook notes that this total actually represents about 10 to 15 seats being fortified for the GOP, given that the majority of legislators who benefited from redistricting were Republicans.  This will no doubt infuriate Democrats, but then: elections matter.

In particular, state legislature elections matter. (more…)

Apr
09
2012
3

#rsrh Assertion v. Reality on Texas redistricting.

Assertion (March 20th, 2012):
Texas Redistricting Costing Republicans & Romney

 As the Texas redistricting fiasco continues, Reuters reports that Republicans are losing the opportunity to capture the state’s Latino vote.

Reality:
Disillusioned by the Democrats, a Texas Latino Lawmaker Joins GOP

José Manuel Lozano, who represents District 43, started the month of March as a Democrat. Now the Mexican-American business owner is a Republican.

“I didn’t leave the party…the party left me,” Lozano said, echoing Ronald Reagan’s famous line, in a recent interview with Fox News Latino.

(more…)

Mar
14
2012
--

The fix is in on NY *state* redistricting?

I dunno.  They’re certainly scurrying around like… things that scurry… in Albany tonight.  This report suggests that the fix is in for the state legislature, and that Governor Cuomo is going to cave on his promise to support reform today, in exchange for promises of reform tomorrow; but it also suggests that the NY legislature has decided to let the courts design the Congressional maps, after all.

Which means… OK. Current breakdown is 21 Democrats, 8 Republicans.  After this election, we’re looking at… OK, Hinchey is retiring and Turner is running for Senate, and their districts were erased.  20 Democrats, 7 Republicans.  Assume that Hochul and Buerkle cancel each other out*.  Still 20/7.  Of the remaining Members of Congress, the two most vulnerable are Bishop and Owens, and I think that at least one of them is going to be tossed.  So it’s reasonable to think that a 19/8 D/R result is very possible… and that even an 18/9 D/R one is not outside the realm of possibility.  Which is to say, one where the NY Republican delegation somehow increases in size in the face of a two-seat CD loss, or at least stands pat. (more…)

Mar
13
2012
4

The THREATENED NY Congressional District map.

I say “threatened” because if the NY state legislature doesn’t come to a deal by Wednesday, this is the map that is very likely going to be the one to get used:

…and there’s going to be several Members of Congress who will be very unhappy if that happens.  Including Steve Israel of the DCCC. (more…)

Mar
04
2012
3

The Great Texas Redistricting Nonsense has been resolved.

Almost.

Some background, for those who need it: Texas, thanks to explosive growth over the last ten years, picked up four Congressional Districts after the last Census.  The Democrats, who are (naturally enough, I suppose) angry that this growth has been at the expense of their own caucus (the 2010 Census generally demonstrated that a lot of people have been voting with their feet on this entire Red State/Blue State paradigm), immediately threw the entire thing into the courts for alleged Voting Rights Act violations.  A San Antonio court threw out the old maps, and put in redrawn ones that just happened to heavily favor the Democrats; and then the Supreme Court reached down from DC and mightily spanked the San Antonio court for that (although a 9-0 reversal is perversely impressive).

So, suitably chastened, the San Antonio court followed the Supreme Court’s instruction to draw interim election maps that actually paid attention to what the duly-elected Texas legislature came up with.  The end result is that on the Congressional level… OK, it’s kind of complicated. (more…)

Feb
28
2012
1

NY redistricting may end in Gary Ackerman (D, NY) cutting and running?

OK, here’s the background: NY is losing two seats in Congress, thanks to the 2010 Census. Well, more accurately, thanks to the urban blue model of governance that has had folks fleeing those urban areas in droves – but never mind that now. As has been noted previously, the New York legislature is having a devil of a time coming up with a map that backstabs the right people and groups, which is why the courts have stepped in and may take over the process of drawing the actual maps.  Given that the Republican Senate and the Democratic Assembly and  whatever-gets-me-a-Presidential-nomination Governor Andrew Cuomo are currently engaged in a three-sided brawl on the subject, this may actually even happen.

What makes this interesting is a report from earlier in the month that one potential plan to handle the downstate/upstate bloodletting – OK, let me explain that.  The upstate districts in NY are where the GOP is strongest; the downstate districts are dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats aren’t really in a position to eliminate two Republican-held seats, so the general assumption has been that one upstate GOP legislator and one downstate Democratic one will get worked over by this deal.

How that would work is complicated by New York’s convoluted recent electoral history.  Right now there are eight Republicans and twenty-one Democrats in the NY delegation.  Of the Republicans, only one – Bob Turner, in Anthony Weiner’s old seat – is a really good pickup opportunity; the rest are either freshmen who took back established Republican seats, or Pete King (and thus probably invulnerable).  Diluting Hinchley – which is what the courts may want to do – probably won’t kill the re-election chances of anybody on the GOP side.  On the other hand, Democrats William Owens and Kathy Hochul are in trouble in the general election: the first one is in office because the Republicans/Conservatives decided to split their strength for two consecutive contests; and the second one is in office because Chris Lee tried to cheat on his wife using Craigslist.   Shorter version: Hinchley’s retirement makes keeping Turner’s downstate seat intact a good thing for the Democratic party, because the GOP probably won’t sit still for eliminating two Republican-held seats AND NY Democrats will need something to offset two possible (and plausible) losses this fall.

Believe me, trying to keep this stuff straight in my own head is difficult; I’m probably getting at least four critical details quite wrong.

(more…)

Feb
14
2012
--

The Great New York Redistricting Headache.

So, we’re having ourselves a situation in New York with redistricting.  The basics: New York, like many blue states that have been blue states for a while, has seen its population ratio to the rest of the country drop sufficiently that it’s losing two Congressional Districts this cycle.  So they’re all trying to figure out how to redraw the map for an optimal destroy-your-enemies approach:

  • New York Democrats want to mess over New York Republicans.  The New York GOP is defending several federal Congressional seats (six of the seven GOP-held seats are effectively freshmen) and its Senate majority; and New York Democrats are eager to try to winnow those numbers down.  If they can figure out how to do it without eliminating a downstate district.  Or two, frankly.
  • New York Republicans, on the other hand, are digging in their heels until they get at least their state Senate majority preserved (note that there is precious little loyalty, on either side, between the state and national parties).
  • And then there’s Governor Andrew Cuomo.  He’s a Democrat… which means that he’s usually at war slightly more often with the Republican-controlled Senate than he is with the Democratic-controlled Assembly.  He’s also currently stuck with a veto threat that, if not followed, will hurt his chances for later higher office.  But if Cuomo does veto whatever devil’s bargain the New York legislature comes up with, then… Bad Things Happen.

(more…)

Feb
12
2012
1

RS at CPAC: Ted Cruz (R CAND, TX-SEN PRI).

Ted Ctuz is an old friend of RedState, of course: so we made sure to spend a couple of minutes talking about the race, how the ongoing redistricting dispute in Texas is making everybody’s elections difficult, and about CPAC generally.  And if you’re wondering why a Texas federal Senate race would be affected by redistricting, it’s because nobody really wants to have three primary dates this year.  Anyway, we chatted for a bit:

Ted’s site is here.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Feb
02
2012
2

Breaking: Heath Shuler (D, NC) cuts and runs.

And it sounds like it’s not to run for Governor of North Carolina, either.  The relevant text:

This was not an easy decision. However, I am confident that it is the right decision. It is a decision I have weighed heavily over the past few months. I have always said family comes first, and I never intended to be a career politician. I am ready to refocus my priorities and spend more time at home with my wife Nikol and two young children.

Translation: redistricting had doomed Heath Shuler, anyway, and it’s a bad year to be a Democrat in North Carolina.  Just ask Bev Perdue.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Man, Charlotte’s going to be all kinds of fun during the Democrats’ convention this year, huh?  Whose idea was that, anyway?  Joe Biden’s?  It kind of feels like a Joe Biden kind of decision.

Site by Neil Stevens | Theme by TheBuckmaker.com