redistricting – Page 3

Ohio redistricting referendum fails to make the ballot. [UPDATED]

[UPDATE: I’ve had folks note that the original map is not quite the same as the final, approved map. There’s been some tweaking of districts; not enough to particularly change any of the practical results found below, but enough to be noteworthy. Fair enough.]

I was over at Larry Sabato’s site today* and I came across this report that an attempt to referendum the Ohio redistricting map has failed miserably. That means that [a map similiar to] the map proposed earlier will now take effect: to summarize, it’s expected to result in a 12R/4D map. Two Republicans and two Democrats (one of whom is Dennis Kuchinich) will compete against each other in primaries; a D versus R race will take place under conditions favorable to the latter; and they carved out another majority-minority seat to keep the VRA happy. I called this result ‘subtle’ at the time; I see no reason why I should change that adjective, unless it’s to replace it with ‘successful.’ Continue reading Ohio redistricting referendum fails to make the ballot. [UPDATED]

RS Interview: Ricky Gill (R CAND, CA-09 PRI)

Before we talk about this race, some quick background on this district: as you probably know, California did some severe internal redistricting after 2010. What you probably didn‘t know – but probably suspected anyway – is that the Democrats who run the state managed to pervert was supposed to be a nonpartisan process by the blatant use of astroturf, front groups, and damaging and/or starving the ability of redistricting commissions to detect both.

The not-exactly-known-for-being-nice-to-conservatives-and-libertarians group ProPublica has a lot of the gory details; held up for particular disgust in that article is the case of Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, who had on the payroll Paul Mitchell, a redistricting consultant who just happened (according to ProPuiblica) to draw the maps for a supposed grassroots site called OneSanJoaquin. OneSanJoaquin provided astroturf arguments to the commission designing the CA-09 district: “[t]ranscripts show that more than a dozen people delivered or sent the canned testimony to the commission, which accepted it without question. There’s no sign that commissioners were aware some of the letters had been downloaded from the mysterious OneSanJoaquin page. ” End result? McNerney is now literally moving from an old district that he barely won to a new one that’s scored as D+7. Yes, literally: the man doesn’t even live in this district.

And thus we come to Ricky Gill, who is somewhat determined to not let McNerney do that without a fight. Ricky is a local resident who was appointed to California’s State Board of Education by the previous governor; and while he’s very young (when he announced his candidacy earlier this year he was only 24) he’s already demonstrated an ability to outraise his opponent*. We talked about the race and the district: Continue reading RS Interview: Ricky Gill (R CAND, CA-09 PRI)

Analyzing the new Pennsylvania district map.

The new redrawn Pennsylvania Congressional map is out, and it’s… well. If you ever wondered whether elections have consequences, then wonder no more.

Executive summary: two of the least powerful PA Democratic Congressmen have been thrown into Thunderdome and told to fight each other; the other five PA Democrats have been, ah, reassured that their seats are safe; and the nine PA Republicans have had their seats generally tweaked and shored up to minimize any possibility of losing their seats any time soon.

And the best adjective to describe PA Democrats’ reaction to this one is probably ‘impotent.’ Continue reading Analyzing the new Pennsylvania district map.

#rsrh Bombshell: Okinawa Jack Murtha was… (gasp!) DIRTY.

Shock.
Surprise.
Inconceivable!

Last week’s release of FBI documents finally put in writing what nobody had ever said on the record: The FBI suspected that former Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) and lobbyists close to him were running a scheme to funnel earmarks to sham companies and nonprofits to benefit the lawmaker’s friends and former staffers.

Bits and pieces of this story were kicked around for years before Murtha died in February 2010. The Los Angeles Times, Roll Call, the Washington Post and others had documented the odd appearance of earmarks for tiny defense contractors that just happened to open an office in western Pennsylvania and just happened to hire one of the lobbying firms close to Murtha and just happened to begin making campaign donations to Murtha and other Members of Congress close to him.

Yes, that was sarcasm. Continue reading #rsrh Bombshell: Okinawa Jack Murtha was… (gasp!) DIRTY.

Maryland redistricting map to get Voter Rights Act challenge.

So… the Maryland redistricting map was revealed and signed into law recently, and – shock! Surprise! – the Democratic-controlled legislature managed to hack into one of the two Republican seats. The short version: they went into Roscoe Bartlett’s MD-06, switched out a bunch of districts to make it more competitive, and then put central Maryland into the redistricting blender and hit ‘puree.’ Because, well, central Maryland is dominated by the Baltimore and Washington DC metro areas, which is another way of saying that it’s prime Democrat country. The redistricting is likewise allegedly designed to give current Congressman John Sarbanes an easy, carefree life until such time as there’s a vacancy for MD-SEN; all in all, if you were hoping to see a Maryland redistricting map that didn’t look like a four-dimensional jigsaw puzzle, well, be disappointed yet again.

There’s just one small problem for the Maryland Democratic party, and it’s called the Voter Rights Act of 1965. Or, perhaps, ‘karma.’ Continue reading Maryland redistricting map to get Voter Rights Act challenge.

Democrats condemn racist redistricting map! …for Illinois.

No, really: all three African-American Congressmen from Illinois are loudly complaining that the current redistricting map as drawn may be in violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Illinois Republicans are currently suing to have the map overturned, largely on the grounds that under the usual interpretation of federal law the new map needs to have more than one majority-Hispanic district. As this Roll Call article notes:

The Hispanic population in Illinois is greater than the black population. But the map drawn by Illinois Democrats creates three districts with a black voting-age population of more than 50 percent and one district with a Hispanic voting-age population of almost 66 percent. The district with the Hispanic super majority was drawn for Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D).

…and that Representatives Danny Davis, Jesse Jackson, Jr., and Bobby Rush all refused to contribute to the Democratic defense fund set up to handle court costs from the lawsuit (Jackson in particular has been pushing Section 2 issues with this administration). To call this open break within the Democratic party ‘awkward’ is an understatement; it is in fact seriously jeopardizing the Left’s attempt to retroactively destroy the GOP’s remarkable gains in Illinois in 2010. Continue reading Democrats condemn racist redistricting map! …for Illinois.

Ohio redistricting map out!

(Via The Campaign Spot) And… it’s subtle. Executive summary:

Ohio loses two districts, overall.
Republicans Steve Austria and Mike Turner end up competing with each other in the same district.
Democrats [Marcy*] Kaptur & Dennis Kuchinich, ditto.
Democrat Nancy Sutton loses her district and gets thrown into a district that heavily favors her new Republican opponent Jim Renacci – and she doesn’t get to bring her power base with her. Or she could compete with Democrat Tim Ryan in yet another district.
Columbus (Democratic stronghold) metropolitan area gets a shiny-new, presumably Democratic-leading, district.
Everybody else more or less stands pat, or gets strengthened.

Continue reading Ohio redistricting map out!

Michigan redistricting makes John Conyers cry.

Elections have consequences.

Or at least scream: it turns out that the redistricting map for Michigan signed off on by Republican governor Rick Snyder last week seriously discombobulates long-time Democrat and House Judiciary Ranking Member John Conyers. The new map (which, incidentally, handles Michigan’s loss of a Congressional seat by effectively eliminating Democrat Gary Peters’ seat and making the rest more party-friendly) pretty much took Conyer’s MI-14 seat and redrew it until he had roughly 20% of the same constituents that he started off with.

If you’re wondering why the Republicans think that they can get away with that – particularly since Conyers is an African-American with a majority-minority district – it’s because the Michigan GOP was very careful in drawing this district (and, apparently, MI-13). As I understand it, the new district is in point of fact drawn to reflect the racial gerrymandering requirements of the Voting Rights Act: which is to say, it’s still majority-minority. It’s just no longer friendly to Conyers specifically… which is not the Republican party’s problem. Or the courts’. Or Michigan’s, really. Or possibly even the Democratic party’s: Conyers may have run unopposed in the 2010 primary, but that’s apparently not going to happen now… Continue reading Michigan redistricting makes John Conyers cry.

The Wisconsin redistricting maps are out.

Alternate title: Wisconsin Gutter War expands.

There is a gutter war going on right now in Wisconsin, by the way. It’s not one that the Republicans there started, but darned if they’re not grimly intent on finishing it – and for anybody who might be upset at that notion, let me remind you of something: oddly enough, when you threaten a man or woman’s family, it’s rare that he or she will… just shrug that off later. The more typical response usually involves the phrase ‘put down like mad dogs.’

Of course that statement, while true, is perhaps a little melodramatic for this situation: Wisconsin state legislators have merely put out the likely new redistricting maps. Normally, it’s the federal one that would get the most ink or pixels, but the state legislative one will probably get touched upon in the media, too (for reasons that will be made clear)… Continue reading The Wisconsin redistricting maps are out.

First North Carolina redistricting map!

And it firmly embraces the old folk saying: What goes around, comes around.

This is the first of three new maps (all of which will be coming out of the newly Republican-controlled state legislature):

To give you an idea of the shift (which is already forecasting DOOM for at least three North Carolina Democrats), here’s the old map:

Continue reading First North Carolina redistricting map!