Marion Berry (D, AR-01) cuts and runs.

Somebody call up Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook (ooh, Charlie had this one as Likely Democratic): they need to adjust their Democratic DOOMWatch lists again.

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry to retire

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision.

Berry will become the sixth Democrat in a competitive seat to leave in the last two months but the first to announce his retirement since the party’s special election loss in Massachusetts last Tuesday.

Speculation was rampant after his comments a couple of days ago; note that politicians routinely deny that they’re going to retire until they actually do.  Presumably, there’s always the hope of a convenient asteroid strike or something as a game-changer.  It’s a shame, in its way: we were all going to really enjoy watching Berry lose that race. As the video at the link shows, the man was seriously off of his game.  When you can’t even remember your own farm subsidy shenanigans…

Moe Lane

PS: It looks more or less like Rick Crawford for AR-01, on the GOP side.  Check him out.

Crossposted to RedState.

Quick looks at 2010: AR-01, MO-SEN, & NM-02.

Some points of interest, for various campaigns:

Continue reading Quick looks at 2010: AR-01, MO-SEN, & NM-02.

Marion Berry (D, AR-01) not up to keeping his story straight.

It’s sad when a sitting US Congressman loses his ability to remember the basic details of the shenanigans he went through to bring in the cash.  Via Boot Berry, this classic moment of what we call a Kinsley gaffe:

To those without video: it’s of Berry first confidently denying that he personally gets farm subsidies (in 2007), then (yesterday) momentarily forgetting that he denies personally getting farm subsidies, cheerfully admitting that he personally gets farm subsidies, then visibly stopping and going to himself Wait a second.  I’m supposed to pretend that I don’t personally get farm subsidies.  It’s the stop-and-wait-and-visible-oops moment that makes this video: by all means, watch it.

And then check out his opponent Rick Crawford.  Because if Berry can’t even keep up on this, him returning to private life seems best for all concerned.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Five House races to look at.

There’s no unifying theme to these choices: they’re merely five candidates for the House of Representatives that the GOP has recruited, supported, or at least working with. There are more – there are, in fact, a good deal more – but these will do for a start. And so, in no particular order:

  • Cory Gardner (CO-04). State legislator.  One of three candidates  for this R+6 seat.  The seat is currently held by Betsy Markey, who not only voted for Cap and Trade; she pretended that she had read it. Gardner is a Tea Party participant, and doing very well in fundraising. Donate here.
  • Charles Djou (HI-01).  City Councilman, Army Reservist.  Candidate for this D+11 seat.  Neil Abercrombie is not seeking re-election, as he is planning to run for Governor of Hawaii: the lack of an incumbent and the general reaction to Djou has this race on a lot of dark horse lists.  Everything needs to work out just right, which is pretty much what we said about Cao down in Louisiana.  Besides, you make ’em fight everywhere.  Donate here.
  • Martha Roby (AL-02).  City Councilwoman with a track record of winning minority votes. Candidate for this R+16 seat.  Bobby Bright is a freshman hanging onto his fingernails, as witnessed by the fact that he was given permission to vote against both the stimulus AND cap and trade.  Martha’s running as a clear conservative, and it’s increasingly looking like she’ll be running in a clear field.  Donate here.
  • Van Tran (CA-47).  State Assemblyman, political refugee.  Candidate for this D+4 seat.  Loretta Sanchez looks untouchable… on paper; but the district went for Bush in 2004, Sanchez has tax and appropriation votes (she’s one of the PMA Porkers) to answer for, and – most importantly – both the GOP and Tran are eager to have a race here.  The Democrats really don’t want to have to fight for this seat.  Donate here.
  • Rick Crawford (AR-01).  Businessman, military veteran.  Candidate for this R+8 seat.  He’s up against Marion Berry, who did not have any opposition last election cycle; Berry also seems to be the type who likes to have creative income disclosures, which I believe that Crawford and the NRCC will be happy to bring up.  As I’ve noted before, Crawford’s pro Tea-Party; and he’s got solid connections with the community.  Donate here.

…and that should get you started.  As I’ve said, these aren’t the only five candidates that the GOP is running; merely five more or less representative ones.  And note that the Republican party is not playing the 2010 elections not to lose; it’s making aggressive moves, and in places where it perhaps was too quick to concede in 2006 and 2008.

This should be an interesting election cycle.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Is Rep. Marion Berry (AR-01) hiding income from his constituents?

We have these disclosure rules for a reason, sir.

Rep Marion Berry (AR-01) is playing financial disclosure games again:

Rep. Marion Berry (D-Ark.) appears to have understated by hundreds of thousands of dollars the value of his Capitol Hill rowhouse on his annual financial disclosure forms.

In May, Berry filed a financial disclosure form reporting the value of the house at between $250,000 and $500,000, the same value that he has listed on his disclosure forms each year.

But according to District of Columbia tax records, the current assessed value of the house is $947,080, and the proposed 2010 assessment value is $864,970, reflecting the drop in Capitol Hill property values.

Continue reading Is Rep. Marion Berry (AR-01) hiding income from his constituents?

Meet Rick Crawford (R-Candidate, AR-01).

Starting with the background: AR-01 is one of those districts that is… interesting. It is currently rated as R +8 in the Cook Political Report, but is held by a soi-disant ‘Blue Dog Democrat’: in this case, Marion Berry. Berry has been in that seat since 1997: he won the 2006 election with 69% of the vote; and he was unopposed in 2008.
However, he will not be unopposed this term.  Rick Crawford is going to be challenging him; it’s reported that the NRCC is looking at him as part of their planned campaign against selected ‘Blue Dogs’ that did not get challenged in the last election cycle.  Rick is a business owner (AG Watch, a radio agricultural network) and military veteran (Army, bomb disposal) with strong roots in the area; he’s pro-life, pro-Tea Party, ready to run on an agricultural platform and is just as exceptionally happy to see the back of Arlen Specter as most of the people reading this, particularly after what Specter did to Kemp’s memory.

The NRCC is taking a challenge to this district seriously, and it’s no surprise why: while Barry has been comfortably winning elections lately – and didn’t have a challenger last cycle – the district itself has shifted on the national level (Gore in ’00, Bush in ’04, McCain in ’08).  Plus there’s the entire agricultural subsidy thing, which Berry is notorious for (and, apparently, has set up an arrangement to allow himself to continue to benefit from personally).  Then there’s the ongoing neutering of the Blue Dogs in general; as this NRCC radio ad (H/T: ARRA News Service) points out, Barry’s voting for what Pelosi’s proposing.

As noted above, Rick’s website is here, this is his current donation link, and here’s his Facebook page.  We will no doubt see more campaign-related items as time goes on.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.