Sep
28
2014
5

The Democrats had a bad night in the Iowa Senate race.

Sounds like they lost a debate that they needed to win.

Such a tragedy.

Moe Lane

PS: The GOP locking down Iowa would make life exceptionally difficult for Democratic strategists.

Sep
27
2014
5

The Five Senate Races that will NOT decide control of the Senate.

OK, this is how you reinforce a narrative in This Town.  You start off by writing something like this:

The fight for the Senate majority is increasingly focused on five races: four controlled by Democrats and one held by Republicans. These contests — Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Kansas — are acknowledged by both sides to be very competitive, and because of that are likely to see the heaviest spending by both the party committees and the outside groups over the last five-plus weeks of the midterm election.

To a Democrat, that doesn’t sound too bad.  That Democrat already ‘knows’ that Alaska is being locked down for the GOP (true), Colorado is trending the GOP’s way (true), Iowa hasn’t yet slipped into GOP territory yet (actually, it probably has), North Carolina is still in the Democratic zone (we’ll see), and Kansas is a wild card (no, not really).  So there’s still a chance, right? (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Sep
27
2014
1

Quote of the Day, This is Not Quite A DOOM Moment In The Iowa-SEN Race edition.

But it’s a big, fat warning sign. Short version: the Des Moines Register poll shows Joni Ernst beating Bruce Braley 44-38. That’s not the warning sign. This is:

[Braley] isn’t winning in his home district, in northeast Iowa.

That’s… great news, actually. Which means that it’s horrible news for Bruce Braley.

Via Hot Air Headlines.

Moe Lane

PS: Joni Ernst for Senate.

Sep
25
2014
11

Eric Holder’s resignation indicates that the White House expects the Senate to flip.

It’s the only reason to do this now.

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder will announce his resignation on Thursday after heading the Justice Department for six years, according to the White House.

Citing two sources “familiar with the situation,” NPR first reported that Holder will exit the U.S. Department of Justice as soon as his replacement is confirmed, though the process could potentially drag out into 2015.

…actually, I expect it to be the other way around: Harry Reid will ram the nomination for Holder’s replacement through the Senate while he still can. If it drags on until 2015, it’ll probably continue to drag on even further under the new Senate.  And possibly not get resolved until after Eric Holder comes clean about all the things he’s been doing to the country for the last six years. (more…)

Sep
14
2014
2

Et tu, Jay Carney?

It’s not that he’s saying anything that the rest of us don’t already know

“It’s not going to be a good year for Democrats by definition,” [former White House press secretary Jay] Carney said. “The sixth year is always particularly bad for a president’s party. You couple that with the fact so many seats are defended by Democrats in red states where Mitt Romney did very well against the president, double-digits in most cases, and there’s no outcome in November that anybody could say would be great for Democrats, except for barely holding onto the Senate.”

…it’s that the sight of Jay Carney saying something clearly and straightforwardly (and, frankly, accurately) is a kind of a new sensation for everybody. It’s like watching a moose tap-dance; theoretically it’s possible, but you still kind of have to stare.  I’d feel bad about being rude like that; but, hey, Jay Carney.

Moe Lane

PS: I understand that it’s currently fashionable to manage expectations about the Senate.  Oh, who am I kidding? It’s always fashionable.  Win or lose, every two years it’s like clockwork.

Sep
05
2014
2

The day that The New Republic snapped like a rotten twig. #kssen

You have to laugh, because the alternative is to… well, laugh. In that way that makes people nervous.

tnr

…said method of ‘voter suppression’ being ‘forcing Kansas Democrats to confront the fact that they nominated an absolutely horrible candidate for Senate.’ Amusingly, at this moment TNR’s own comments section (link below) is throwing tomatoes at the author; this will change, but in the meantime… chortle. Just not in a fashion that will have your neighbors call the cops.

Via

Sep
02
2014
5

Let us stop playing Harry Reid’s twisted little games.

Background: Harry Reid wants to waste precious Senate time on a Constitutional amendment that would significantly limit the First’s freedom of speech protections (all in the name of fighting Charles and David Koch, who apparently live under Harry Reid’s bed and plan to eat him if the night-light ever burns out).  The Washington Examiner’s Byron York lays out how pointless this is:

The first action Reid has scheduled for next week is a cloture vote on whether to even begin considering the amendment. Republicans could filibuster the measure, which would stop it and allow the Senate to move on to move meaningful matters. But that would allow Democrats to accuse the GOP of obstructionism. So Republicans will likely allow the amendment to go forward.

A long debate will then ensue in which Democrats denounce the Kochs and “corporate money” and Republicans argue the amendment would abridge First Amendment rights. After an extended back-and-forth, there will be another vote, this time on whether to end debate. Again, Republicans don’t need to use the filibuster to stop the measure, because they know it will fail in the final vote.

After more pointless debate, there will be yet another vote to move toward a final vote on the matter. If the amendment goes on to that final vote, and even if all 55 Democrats ultimately support it, it will fall a dozen votes short of passage.

(more…)

Sep
01
2014
--

Will the African-American vote save troubled Democratic Senate incumbents?

Michael Barone is… dubious.

It’s apparent that even the most vigorous black turnout effort in the eight states [of thirteen with contested Senate races, including Georgia and Kentucky] with low black percentages is not going to make much difference. Democrats there must hope that their candidates can maintain levels of support from whites at or above the levels achieved by Obama in 2008 and 2012. In addition, Democrats inColorado must hope they can maintain something like the 75 to 23 percent margin Obama won among Hispanics there in 2012 according to the exit poll. (Note: I have been skeptical, just based on instinct and observation of county vote totals, about the Colorado exit poll, which I suspect understates Obama support among whites and overstates it among Hispanics.)

In the five states with above-national-average black percentages, there’s obviously good reason for Democrats to try to bolster black turnout. But to win a Democratic candidate must also do significantly better than Obama did among whites in ArkansasGeorgia and Louisiana and somewhat better than in North Carolina.

(more…)

Sep
01
2014
10

I maintain a certain skepticism that Dick Durbin is in all that much trouble right now.

I am… hesitant to put too much weight on this Illinois Senate poll showing Dick Durbin ahead by only seven points. Don’t get me wrong: I despise Dick Durbin for being a re-segregationist, corrupt, constitutionally ignorant hypocrite who has no feel for his constituents and no interest in their welfare.  And I don’t think that Durbin can count on the Gov. Pat Quinn race giving him a boost in the election this go-round, largely because Pat Quinn is having difficulty breaking 40 in the polls himself.  It’s just that it’s still really, really easy to believe that this poll is just an outlier.  That’s usually the safe way to bet.

Mind you: I’d be ecstatic to find out that I was wrong, so… Jim Oberweis for Senate.  Because Dick Durbin is an awful Senator and not that great a human being*.  It’s long since time he found something else to do with his time.

Moe Lane

*The DC school choice thing really sticks in my craw.  There’s following a policy, and then there’s just meanness. Durbin made his choice.

Aug
31
2014
6

At-Risk Senate Seats, 08/31/2014 edition (Includes DOOM calls).

Here is my latest At-Risk races… and there are DOOM calls. Hey, it’s Labor Day Weekend. Time to start in on that.

Alaska Mark Begich High Risk
Arkansas Mark Pryor High Risk
Colorado Mark Udall Serious Risk
Iowa Retiring High Risk
Louisiana Mary Landrieu High Risk
Michigan Retiring Some Risk
Minnesota Al Franken Low Risk
Montana Retiring DOOM
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Some Risk
New Mexico Tom Udall Off list
North Carolina Kay Hagan High Risk
Oregon Jeff Merkley Low Risk
South Dakota Retiring DOOM
Virginia Mark Warner Low Risk
West Virginia Retiring DOOM

(more…)

Aug
28
2014
3

I don’t think Harry Reid will run again.

I think that – as this article notes – Harry Reid is old, sick*, and he’s about to become the Senate Minority Leader in a world where the incoming majority will have a great number of opportunities for malice, and revenge**. I do note that Jon Ralston, the author of said piece, thinks that Reid will not only survive but thrive… but if you read that article, the impression you get is that Harry Reid has a hard crust and a hollowed-out interior.  Break through – or even give a good enough blow to the outside – and he’ll shatter like a piece of punk wood.

Mark my words: when Harry Reid eventually falls it will all happen in the course of one or two weeks. He’s not going to dig in his heels, although there is a small part of me that kind of hopes that he does.  A small and horrible part of me.

Moe Lane

*Take that any way that you like.

**The Senate has always been a place where comity warred with spite.  Spite has been winning, the last few years; and its victims are increasingly eager to return the favor.  And driving Harry Reid from office probably would soothe the Senate’s breast, as it were.

Aug
27
2014
7

The American Prospect: Hey, so we lose six Senate seats and control. No biggie.

Ooh, I wasn’t expecting stories like this until some time after Labor Day:

senate-democrats-tap

Link via RCP: the gist of it is that of course the Democrats will win back the Senate in 2016, because all of those young, hip, ethnically diverse voters will come out and vote for the Democratic candidate for Senator, right after they vote for whichever old white person the Democrats nominate for President!

…Huh. Doesn’t have the same zing, when put that way. (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: , ,

Site by Neil Stevens | Theme by TheBuckmaker.com