Moe Lane

Seriously.

Pioneering political blogger Mickey Kaus took out papers filed to run for U.S. Senate in California, he told LA Weekly. The Venice resident said he’ll run this year against Barbara Boxer for her seat. He said he took out filed papers at with the Los Angeles County Registrar of Voters, although a spokeswoman there could not yet confirm the filing.

The Democrat has been centrist and even conservative on some of the issues on which Boxer has taken a more left-leaning stand, including immigration: He does not favor amnesty and favors a more restrictive national policy.

Mickey’s even admitted to it on his site, which would explain why it’s not been updated for a week otherwise.  For obvious reasons, I’m not endorsing him – a hypothetical Senator Kaus would caucus with the Democrats, which breaks the first rule of my endorsement criteria – but if you’re a Democrat who is tired of a liberal idiot* or idiots representing you, well, do something useful about it.  Nobody cares if you’re just going to be mortified.

Moe Lane (more…)

As in, there isn’t one.

Jim Geraghty dumped a bit of cold water on this not-yet-officially-refuted rumor that Senator Mikulski is planning to retire:

…the least she’s ever gotten in a Senate race is 60 percent. Evan Bayh faced a tough reelection bid, but Mikulski’s biggest-name opponent so far, is Queen Anne’s County Commissioner Eric Wargot. She’s raised $3 million, he’s raised $176,526. Even in a terrible year for Democrats, she should be safe.

If Mikulski is contemplating retirement, it’s not because she fears she’ll lose in 2010.

…which is true enough: if Mikulski is retiring (we should probably get that confirmed today), it won’t be because of the current political environment.

But from now on, reasons for Democratic drop-outs no longer matter.  Particularly in the Senate. (more…)

Maybe, maybe not – but when Tom Jensen feels the need to start his preview of the Senate race in Arkansas with the sentence “[w]e are going to have Blanche Lincoln-John Boozman numbers tomorrow* and they aren’t pretty for Lincoln” you can be reasonably certain that they won’t be giving out free kittens and ice cream at the Arkansas Democrat party HQ in celebration of the news.  The general impression that I’m getting, in fact, is that when it comes to November the difference between Lincoln and other potential Democratic alternatives is going to be mostly in seeing how far the rubble bounces…

Moe Lane

*This was written yesterday, so expect the news sometimes Tuesday morning.

(Via AoSHQ) Beau Biden looked at the calendar, looked at the actuarial tables, and decided to wait until 2014.

Delaware attorney general Beau Biden announced Monday that he will not seek election to the U.S. Senate seat once held by his father, Vice President Joe Biden.

The younger Biden told supporters in an e-mail that he will run for re-election as attorney general rather than seek the Senate seat his father held for 36 years.

Biden’s decision comes on the heels of a GOP upset in Massachusetts last week that ended the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. It leaves veteran Republican congressman and former two-term governor Mike Castle, one of the most successful politicians in Delaware history, still waiting for a Democratic opponent.

I’m translating, mind you. Also, I’m not really surprised.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Also: [ahem] “See, I told you so.”

[UPDATE]: Welcome, Instapundit readers – and I assure you, I don’t ever want to get on Glenn’s bad side.  I heard that he once linked a site in Reno, just to watch it crash…

This message goes out to every vulnerable Democratic Congressman representing a Republican or even centrist district – and after tonight, who among you is not vulnerable? It is a simple message: we can do this the easy way, or we can do it the hard way. The easy way is, you suddenly decide that you have a burning desire to spend more time with your families. So you don’t run for re-election, you walk off stage technically undefeated, and you go join a lobbying firm. The hard way is, you do run for re-election, and we pry you out of your seats.

We want to do this the hard way. We will enjoy doing it.

That’s your only warning. And remember: nobody is going to be able to save you. If the President, the DSCC, the DCCC, the DNC, the SEIU, ACORN, and the netroots couldn’t manage a win in Massachusetts… what do you think that they can do for you?

Moe Lane

PS: To my readers… go have a drink. Go have a few. Celebrate. Tomorrow, we talk about how we’re going to take FL-19 and HI-01 away from the Democratic party.

PPS: More than a few people wanted me to mock specific members of the netroots in this post – but when I’m on my way to the main hall to deliver a message I see no reason why I should stop at the kennels along the way. (more…)

The polls are open in Massachusetts, and the usual reports of heavy early turnout have begun.  What men and women can do, we have done: it is now in the voters’ hands.  All that’s left is to ensure that today’s is a clean fight and a fair fight.

Scott Brown for Senate.

Legal Insurrection will be live-blogging throughout the day.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

[UPDATE] Welcome, Instapundit readers.

Glenn Reynolds and Kleinheider both focused on Ford’s unwillingness to take Obama’s direction on who should be the anointed junior Senator from New York, but the real hit there took place earlier:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

‘No Negro dialect.’ Admittedly, beating up on Harry Reid is fun – at this rate, I could run against him and win, and the only times I’ve ever been in Nevada was when I’ve flown over it – but it’s a sign of just how bad the year promises to be for the Democratic party*. After all, Reid is Senate Majority Leader.

Currently.

Moe Lane

*Ford has promised that if “I am elected senator from New York, Harry Reid will not instruct me how to vote” – and you know? That’s looking like it’s going to be a really easy promise for him to make.

I’m surprised that I missed this, actually.  Then again, there were things going on last week.

Our Senate/Governor Editor, Jennifer Duffy, currently estimates that the range of outcomes in the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans. In the gubernatorial races, she sees the same likely outcome, a wash to a GOP gain of three seats.

[snip]

My own view, separate from the Cook Political Report’s estimates, mirrors [House Editor David] Wasserman’s current 20-30 seat net gain for Republicans in the House, but in the Senate, I take a bit more aggressive posture. I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.

I’m personally a sunny optimist, so six (AR, CO, CT, DE, NV, PA) is more my lower limit right now. And I think that at least one supposedly ’safe’ seat for the Democrats is going to get absolutely hammered this year – and no, I’m not saying which one. People keep laughing at me in private when I suggest it.  None the less… heck of a way to start the new year, huh?

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Now watch: he’ll announce today, just to spite me.

Or simply… thoughtful?

[Former President Bill] Clinton delivered the keynote address at the party’s Jefferson Jackson Dinner, the kickoff to the 2010 campaign in Delaware — a foray many Democrats hope will again feature “Biden for Senate” buttons.

But there was no word from Attorney General Biden on Tuesday night about whether he will run for the U.S. Senate seat once held by his father.

Mark my words, an announcement was expected last night; the Jefferson-Jackson dinner would have been the logical time and place for it, too. On the other hand, VP Biden’s name does not have the luster… well, it never particularly had any real luster, but he doesn’t poll well these days. And on the gripping hand, as one of Jim Geraghty’s readers notes 2014 may be a more logical time for AG Biden to run for Senate anyway.  Meanwhile, of course, Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) is running for Senate himself.  For those keeping score: no on stimulus, yes on cap-and-trade – but yes on Stupak/no on health care.

Possibly lately he’s been… thoughtful… too.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

(H/T: Instapundit) The Politico’s list of vulnerable Senate seats is interesting, interesting, interesting.  This is not turning out to be a Democratic cycle, as witnessed by the fact that only two of the top eight vulnerable are Republicans.  In their order of sitting incumbents*:

Dodd (CT)
Reid (NV)
Lincoln (AR)
Bennet (CO)
Specter (PA)
Vitter (LA)
Boxer (CA)
Burr (NC)

Of those eight, the only one that I’d quibble over is Vitter: he’s theoretically vulnerable over the escort thing, but the story’s been out for a while and he’s still crushing Melancon.  Not that I expect us to win all of the other six… but we’re going to pick off at least half of them if the country stays on its current path.

No, I’m not going to say which ones. Where’s the fun in that?

Moe Lane

*The open seat ones are also interesting, but hard to assess this far out.

Crossposted to RedState.

RCP has the basic poll details:

…the link itself is broken. However, looking at the trends Sen. Gillibrand is as having as fun an August as just about every other Democrat: in other words, a rotten one.  I don’t know if this means that Pataki will actually run, but it certainly won’t hurt.  And I find that I approve of the Democrats having to spend money defending seats that they assumed would be theirs for forever, and a day…

Crossposted to RedState.

And they’ll just let him?

So it seems, so it seems.

One week after deciding to side with Senate Republicans, a key architect of the state Senate coup says he’s coming home. A source close to Senator Hiram Monserrate says he will stay with the democratic caucus.

First off: feel free to take him back, Democrats. No. Really. You never really wanted him gone, anyway.

Second: this makes the entire NY Senate thing exceedingly complex. A 31-31 split will mean GOP-plus-Espada keeps control of the Senate… if his appointment is confirmed. That’s up in court today, and if the courts rule against Espada, the lack of a majority by either side puts the NY Senate back into chaos. There’s no Lt. Governor to break ties, you need 32 votes for a quorum, former Senate President Malcolm Smith’s being replaced as caucus leader… it is, in fact, going to be a glorious mess.

It’s even got a national implications: Democratic state senator Darrel J. Aubertine has been talked up to run for NY-23’s upcoming special election. The idea is probably giving his fellow-Democrats heartburn right now…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

The White House decided to make personally certain that an unelected New York Senator with publicly-stated views on gun control and immigration contrary to the rest of her party was not challenged in the primary by a solidly-liberal Representative who is well respected in his caucus. This has caused a good deal of tension in the rest of the New York delegation:

Confusion, conflict mar Gillibrand’s run

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama’s effort to squelch plans by a New York congressman to run in next year’s Democratic primary against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand apparently succeeded.

In fact, the president’s call to Rep. Steve Israel asking him not to run may rank as a pivotal moment in Gillibrand’s effort to hang onto her seat.

But Obama’s phone call also has angered members of the state’s congressional delegation, who see it as heavy-handed intrusion reminiscent of Tammany Hall party machine politics.

The behind-the-scenes maneuvering has the makings of a political soap opera with some lawmakers feeling pressured to endorse early, some dissatisfied with Gillibrand’s views on key liberal issues, and some too upset to even break bread together.

To begin with, this isn’t ‘Tammany Hall Machine politics.’ Your standard Tammany Hall machine politician would have sneered at the way that the internal conflict between the state and federal power structures ended up in the local papers. As a practical hint: you don’t start this sort of thing by telling a politician not to run. You start by seducing his supporters away, then have them tell him not to run. Sure, it costs more – but it also avoids newspaper articles with headlines like ‘Confusion, conflict mar Gillibrand’s run.’
(more…)

House to gratefully let them.

They may call it “delay,” but they mean “eliminate” – and the Washington Post is happy to assist with putting this story on the seventh page.

Senate Will Delay Action on Punitive Tax on Bonuses

Jarred by a cool reception from the White House and fears of unintended consequences across the financial world, Senate leaders are likely to delay until late next month legislation to punitively tax bonuses at banks and investment firms that receive federal aid.

Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) announced last week that the Senate would move ahead with the legislation as soon as possible, and he attempted to bring the bill to the floor Thursday night. But he revised that timetable yesterday, saying that the chamber will spend this week debating a national-service bill before turning to a long-scheduled showdown over the budget for fiscal 2010. With just two weeks to go until Congress departs for a spring recess, action on the tax measure would be unlikely before late April.

That will effectively kill the bill, because everyone in Washington is betting that a month should be enough time for the populace to have something else besides the Democrat-inspired and Democrat-encouraged AIG bonus PR fiasco to focus upon; which is not a bad bet, actually. Already people are starting to notice that the Democrats’ House bill has a good deal of faux-populist outrage associated with it; and as Glenn Reynolds over in Forbes is pointing out, the Democrats are going to be soon having to hit up the very people that they’re currently demonizing for campaign contributions. Time to let this story die, and that’s why there’s a Senate in the first place. (more…)

Should be interesting.

And it’s an open question who’s happier about this: us, or them. Via Dan Riehl:

Toomey to challenge Specter again

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) will challenge Sen. Arlen Specter in a primary for the second straight cycle, according to Pennsylvania GOP sources.

The Allentown Morning Call reported Thursday that two friends of Toomey’s have said the Club for Growth chief has decided to enter the race.

(more…)

We’re now up to version 4.0, and by now you have to wonder just what is on those FBI tapes. Whatever it is, it must be juicy:

Burris now acknowledges fundraising effort for Blagojevich

U.S. Sen. Roland Burris has acknowledged he sought to raise campaign funds for then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich at the request of the governor’s brother at the same time he was making a pitch to be appointed to the Senate seat previously held by President Barack Obama.

(more…)