Here you go.
Mason-Dixon poll: Grayson 33, Murphy 32 #FLSEN
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlakeWP) July 27, 2015
Chris Cillizza was succinct.
Democratic nightmare https://t.co/zwigenb6y7
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) July 27, 2015
Do you believe in miracles?
Oh, don’t tease me like this.
The first statewide survey of the [Florida] Democratic Senate race since [Alan] Grayson formally announced his campaign found Grayson leading [Patrick] Murphy by nearly seven points – 30 to 23 percent. Just over 17 percent said “someone else,” and 22 percent are undecided.
Via Hot Air comes this refreshing bucket of icy sea water on Democratic fever dreams: “Former North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan will not be mounting a challenge to her former GOP colleague, Sen. Richard M. Burr.” Not surprising that Hagan bowed out though, really. It is not the easiest thing in the world for a former Senator who was tossed out of office to come back and win a new election, particularly when it is against an incumbent.
Alas for the Democratic party, recruiting people who have intimately known the bitter lash of electoral defeat is the lynchpin of their 2016 Senate strategy. Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania… shoot, the next Democratic nominee for FL-SEN might very well be Alan Grayson, who rather famously got smacked down in 2010, to the point where he had to go running to a safer district. A lot of retreads, in other words. A lot of retreads. Which is fine if you think that the electorate is regretting its previous decisions; but what if they’re not?
You know, it’s sad when you see somebody whose basic motivation in life is so self-evidently Where am I gonna get my next fix from, man? Sad, and a little embarrassing. You want ’em to get help, but it’s not your place to tell ’em to shape up:
Former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold — long a champion of campaign finance reform — founded a political action committee that has given a mere 5% of its income to federal candidates and political parties.
Instead, nearly half of the $7.1 million that Progressives United PAChas spent since 2011 has gone to raising more money for itself, according to data compiled by OpenSecrets.org. The data also show the group has paid another sizable chunk of money on salaries or consulting fees for Feingold, his top aide and eight former staffers.
Before we get into the meat of this story from the National Journal, let me just note that this – “One of the most underappreciated stories in recent years is the deterioration of the Democratic bench under President Obama’s tenure in office” – has always been properly appreciated by me. I noticed this issue a while back. Sorry, but I felt the need to establish that.
…less attention has been paid to how the shrinking number of Democratic officeholders in the House and in statewide offices is affecting the party’s Senate races. It’s awfully unusual to see how dependent Democrats are in relying on former losing candidates as their standard-bearers in 2016. Wisconsin’s Russ Feingold, Pennsylvania’s Joe Sestak, Indiana’s Baron Hill, and Ohio’s Ted Strickland all ran underwhelming campaigns in losing office in 2010—and are looking to return to politics six years later. Party officials are courting former Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina to make a comeback bid, despite mediocre favorability ratings and the fact that she lost a race just months ago that most had expected her to win. All told, more than half of the Democrats’ Senate challengers in 2016 are comeback candidates.
I haven’t decided whether this Washington Post article on Alan Grayson is an attempt to warm him up to the Beltway, or else warn the Beltway about him. Probably the latter: you don’t say things like “[h]is campaign Web [site] … liberally uses ALL CAPS, which gives you a sense of what a possible Grayson for Senate campaign would be like” in This Town when you’re trying to be nice. On the other hand, there is one really important thing that the WaPo should have been mentioned about Alan Grayson, but neglected to. To wit: in 2010 Alan Grayson had his head handed to him in FL-08, and that was as an incumbent. Daniel Webster winning with 56% of the vote was enough to get Grayson scurrying for another district. (more…)
Let’s just stamp on this nonsense on stilts right now, because it is nonsense on stilts:
A shutdown fight would be risky for both sides, but would be particularly perilous for Republicans as they seek to retain control of Congress and win back the White House. The last shutdown fight sent the GOP’s poll numbers to historic lows, though the party’s brand recovered ahead of a historic midterm elections triumph.
Here’s why it’s nonsense on stilts:
Bottom line is this: for the first time since 2009 we have the classic divided government that everybody says that the American people hate… and that the American people keep voting into existence anyway. Under normal circumstances we’d have an executive branch that understood that the tactics that work under a super-majority in Congress – or even a divided Congress – will not work when the opposition party can send bills to his desk. There’s a reason why the Democrats never passed a budget when they could possibly help it, after all.
But these aren’t normal circumstances. President Barack Obama probably either thinks that he can veto a budget and not have it slop over onto his party and the next candidate, or he thinks that he doesn’t have to care. Probably the latter – and while I agree that the Republican Congressional caucuses can drive a thoughtful man mad sometimes, in this particular case the fight will be under conditions that my often-exasperating party is most comfortable with. We can do a Return To Normalcy campaign in our sleep – and, frankly? We’ll need the practice for 2016 anyway.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
After three months of Democratic nonsense, Democratic hackery, Democratic filibustering, Democratic delay, Democratic posturing, and general Democratic disregard for the underlying issue of human trafficking… the Senate bill finally passes. The final vote? As of 4:30 PM:
The phrase that CNN should be looking for here is ‘stunning rebuke:’
Senate backers of a bill the White House fears could dismantle a potential nuclear deal with Iran are closing in on a veto-proof threshold of support.
The bill already has nine Democratic co-sponsors and a handful of other Democrats have either expressed support or remain open to backing the bill. When combined with the Senate Republicans and one independent who support the legislation, that leaves backers just four shy of the 67 needed to sustain the veto that Obama has promised.
I believe that the truism is If the title of your article is a question, then the answer is invariably ‘No.’ I actually resist this truism: I like to ask questions in titles, because the other use of that stylistic trick is to mildly unnerve the Other Side with a ominous question. However, I think that the answer is in this case is still going to be ‘no:’
Sen. Harry’s Reid’s perfunctory announcement on Friday that he won’t seek re-election next year — leaving a vacancy for leadership of the Senate Democrats — was followed, hours later, by a matter-of-fact statement in an interview with The Washington Post:”I think Schumer should be able to succeed me.”
That would usher in a whirlwind of activity on Capitol Hill in the next year as New York’s senior senator prepares to seize the reins of power — and retool the party as a center-left powerhouse that can win and hold a majority in 2016 and beyond.
But… my birthday is tomorrow.
Mr. Reid, 75, who suffered serious eye and facial injuries in a Jan. 1 exercise accident at his Las Vegas home, said he had been contemplating retiring from the Senate for months. He said his decision was not attributable either to the accident or to his demotion to minority leader after Democrats lost the majority in November’s midterm elections.
See also the Weekly Standard, which has Harry Reid’s remarkably tin-eared attempt to spin his retirement into something that would be helpful for Democrats retaking the Senate. Only in the sense that Harry Reid will no longer be around to blight the long-term careers of red-state Democratic politicians: his tenure has had a remarkable amount of churn in that regard. Also, Nevada just shot up the rankings on the Big Board: and if Governor Brian Sandoval decides to run for Senate, it pretty much goes off of the Big Board completely. (more…)