Mar
15
2014
4

Looking at the current 2014 Senate map.

Put a gun to my head, as of this moment this is what the Senate map looks like for us in November.

march-15-senate-map

(Map via 270 To Win) Pickups in AK, AR, LA (hardest to pick up), MT, NC, SD, WV; we retain GA (close) and KY (not close).  CO, IA (second-hardest to justify), MI, and now NH (hardest to justify, and I am indulging myself there) up for grabs. And I am still keeping an eye on Oregon. Conditions aren’t quite ripe, there, but it could be the sleeper of the season. (more…)

Mar
14
2014
5

Nancy Pelosi seems to think that #obamacare is *still* a winner.

So, Nancy Pelosi…

Um. Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi.  P-E-L-O-S-I.  She used to be Speaker of the House, remember?  Yeah, back in 2010.  She stopped being Speaker after the Republican party used Obamacare to gut the Democrats’ House caucus.  …What? Oh, no, she didn’t retire: Nancy stayed on as House Minority Leader, which is pretty much why the GOP only lost a handful of seats in 2012.  No, I don’t know why she stuck around either.

But Nancy Pelosi is still around! And she’s claiming that the GOP won’t be able to run on Obamacare this year. (more…)

Mar
10
2014
10

On the latest kabuki from Senate Democrats. #globalwarming

Three things to take away from this ‘talkathon’ on global warming planned for tonight by Senate Democrats:

  • Indeed, do not call it a ‘filibuster.’ Strictly speaking, the last one of those we had was from Rand Paul.  This will be more like Ted Cruz’s Obamacare session, except that there will be more individuals involved (largely because the Democrats do not have a single Senator that can match the rhetorical skills of Ted Cruz, let alone duplicate his stamina).
  • I betcha none of these people will take questions. Like the one about why all the climate models have been increasingly at odds with observed data for about the last, oh, twenty years or so*.
  • And this says it all, really: “Democrats have 28 senators scheduled to speak through Monday night, but some of the party’s most vulnerable senators facing re-election this year—Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Kay Hagan of North Carolina—are notably missing from the lineup.”

(more…)

Mar
05
2014
4

Huh. Senate rejects nomination of cop-killer lawyer Debo Adegbile to civil rights post.

[UPDATE] I am reminded in comments that Chris Coons is actually up for re-election in 2014 (special election in 2010).  Mystery solved!

Yeah, I know: bad people need lawyers, too.  But this guy was… provocative.

Opponents of President Obama’s nominee to head the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division prevailed in blocking his confirmation Wednesday, as he failed to clear a procedural hurdle.

Several Senate Democrats joined with Republicans in voting against Debo Adegbile, whose nomination was adamantly and vocally opposed by conservatives due to his participation in an appeal filed on behalf of Mumia Abu-Jamal – an internationally-known prisoner convicted of the 1981 murder of Philadelphia police officer Daniel Faulkner.

(more…)

Mar
03
2014
5

So I hear that Texas Democrats are about to nominate a LaRouchie for TX-SEN.

Oh, yeah, like that’s not going to be awkward.

Texas Democrats are scrambling to can stop a controversial pro-impeachment, anti-ObamaCare candidate from advancing in their party’s Senate primary.

Winning the general election is long shot for any nominee. But with Democrats optimistic about a resurgence in the Lone Star State and their chances in the governor’s race, Lyndon LaRouche acolyte Kesha Rogers could damage those hopes if she even advances to a runoff on Tuesday.

Such a scenario once seemed like a long shot, but a University of Texas-Texas Tribune Internet-based survey late last month showed the controversial candidate outpolling two better-funded and well-endorsed opponents, dentist David Alameel and attorney Maxey Scherr.

Mind you – and contra the Hill – the Democrats aren’t about to win the Governor’s race this fall.  And I would suggest that the people who let this situation arise in the Democratic primaries… are wonderful people who shouldn’t change a thing.  Well done, folks.  Well done.

Moe Lane

PS: No. Really. I am terrified of the Democrats in Texas now.  They can even repeat that, I am so despondent…

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Mar
03
2014
5

@Freddoso walks through the 2014 Senate races (VIDEO).

It’s a good basic primer for the state of play this cycle…

(more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: ,
Feb
26
2014
2

Hey! Twenty three Democratic Senators can do minimum wage math!

Shocking. Why have they hidden their light under a bushel for all these years?

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Tuesday delayed action on legislation raising the minimum wage, the centerpiece of the Democrats’ 2014 agenda.

[snip]

Reid has not yet unified his caucus on the issue, which is a constant in the Democrats’ election-year playbook. Of the 55 senators who caucus with the Democrats, only 32 have signed on as official co-sponsors of Sen. Tom Harkin’s (D-Iowa) bill.

(more…)

Feb
22
2014
7

Looks like @RepGaryPeters decided to target inconvenient leukemia patient Julie Boonstra.

Speaking solely from a pragmatic point of view, this does not exactly sound like a sensible decision on Rep. Gary Peters’ part:

LANSING – Today Rep. Gary Peters set his Washington DC legal attack dogs out to intimidate and silence Julie Boonstra, a Michigan mother battling leukemia who had the courage to speak up after the insurance plan she liked was cancelled due to the Affordable Care Act.

Instead of listening to Julie’s concerns, Peters took steps to strong-arm Michigan television stations to simply pull “Julie’s Story” from the airwaves.  These are desperate political tactics from someone who is increasingly incapable of defending his support for Obamacare.

(more…)

Feb
20
2014
9

@SeanTrende runs the numbers on the 2014 Senate, nearly suffers total protonic reversal.

My eyes keep skittering over this Sean Trende piece about likely 2014 Senate losses. Not because it’s bad news: it’s not.

[Sean's calculation table] is a grim picture for Senate Democrats, suggesting that the president would have to get his approval above 50 percent by Election Day before they would be favored to hold the chamber. This is also consistent with what we’ve seen in polling, which shows the seven “red state” Democrats in truly severe states of distress, while Democrats in Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire and Colorado are exhibiting surprising weakness. If these 11 seats are showing similar signs of weakness in November, Democrats will have an extremely difficult time holding the chamber. At Obama’s current 44 percent approval rating, we’d expect Democrats to lose somewhere between nine and 13 seats.

(more…)

Feb
17
2014
--

Some VERY interesting things in this Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser poll.

And by ‘interesting’ I mean favorable:

  • The most obvious one is that Republican (and former Lt. Gov) Duke Aiona would in a rematch beat Neil Abercrombie 48-40 among registered voters.
  • Charles Djou (running for Senate) has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 58/30, which is fairly close to Colleen Hanabusa’s 62/27. Clearly, Hanabusa’s is better, but not nearly by as much as I would have expected.
  • And this is important because Colleen Hanabusa currently leads incumbent Senator Brian Schatz 48/40 in the Democratic Senate primary.

If the Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser poll checked the Senate race, it wasn’t reported: based on the numbers, I’d guess that Hanabusa would be ahead of Djou and that Djou would be ahead of Schatz*. That is… remarkable news: particularly if the Hawaiian primaries turn nasty. After all, Djou won his Congressional race because Ed Case and… Colleen Hanabusa… both adamantly refused to accept the results of their primary race. Obviously, the Hawaiian Democratic party is as aware of this as I am: the question is, will they be able to keep whichever Democrat loses in line?

Interesting days ahead.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*You might be forgiven for thinking that this poll suggests that hao… ahem, ‘Caucasians’… may end up having a somewhat thin time of it in Hawaii this election cycle.  Mostly because I’m thinking it, too.  I don’t know what to do about it, though.

Feb
17
2014
1

Quote of the Day, Senate Democrats Revisit Their Horrible Proms edition. #obamacare

John Sununu – who lost a Senate election in 2008, as he freely admits later in the article – may have just a touch of the ol’ schadenfreude showing in this article:

The giddy electoral success of 2008 has been tempered by the harsh political reality of 2014. Implementing Obamacare, the president’s signature legislative achievement, has been a logistical nightmare; millions of families have lost their insurance coverage; and Obama’s approval ratings have fallen below 40 percent. “Dance with the one that brought you,” the saying goes, but when you are a Senate Democrat stuck with the wrong prom date, there’s only one thing to do: hide in the bathroom.

Note that I do not disapprove. One of the few pleasures of the Obamacare debacle is that we have rarely seen such a lopsided assignment of responsibility as we have here.  Republicans up and down the line adamantly told people that this was going to be a disaster, and the Democrats took it as an opportunity to go all-in.  If Obamacare had turned out to be a brilliant success the Republican party might not have survived the experience; as it stands, the Democrats will be smarting from the negative reinforcement for the rest of the decade.

Feb
07
2014
2

At-Risk Senate Seats, 02/07/2014 edition.

As always, this is going to be a highly subjective take: my thoughts on each race after the fold. Bottom line: some shifts up, some shifts down, I took out Massachusetts and New Jersey because, really, well, some states are more likely than others.

Alaska Mark Begich Serious Risk
Arkansas Mark Pryor Serious Risk
Colorado Mark Udall Some Risk
Iowa Open Some Risk
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Serious Risk
Michigan Open Some Risk
Minnesota Al Franken Low Risk
Montana Open Serious Risk
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Depends
New Mexico Tom Udall Low Risk
North Carolina Kay Hagan Serious Risk
Oregon Jeff Merkley Some Risk
South Dakota Open Serious Risk
Virginia Mark Warner Some Risk
West Virginia Open Serious Risk

(Previous ranking here) (more…)

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