Mark Sanford, by a bit. This is frankly subjective, but I suspect that more people agree with me on this than let on: I’ve been reading a lot of ‘momentum swinging back to Sanford’ pieces by individuals and groups who aren’t particularly happy about that development. Generally you’d be expecting more triumphalist posts by Democrats at this point if they thought that Elizabeth Colbert Busch was a shoo-in. Or maybe even any.
This is a “If you put a gun to my head” kind of prediction, by the way: it’s hard to predict a special election result when there’s any kind of controversy and/or complication. Which is why we have elections. Anyway, I’d rather be the kind of person who will give an opinion when it means something even if it means being wrong every so often* than the kind who waits until the coast is clear and say I knew it all along. What’s the freaking use of that?
*“‘Every so often?'” “Hush, you.”