Let me sum up: the races currently at risk for us (Toss-up or worse) are Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania: the ones at risk for the Democrats are Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. I don’t contest any of the ratings (they’re all Toss-Up, except for Pennsylvania, which CAC rates as a pickup for the Democrats); if I had to guess which states we keep and which ones we flip, it’s probably be Florida keep, Arkansas flip… and I think that we might be ‘given’ Illinois, but that’s just my endless contempt with the one-party state that is the Illinois Combine talking. Ask me again about Colorado and Maine when events on the ground shake out more. (more…)
[UPDATE]: Welcome to the wonderful world of ‘unsexy races are harder to track.’ Apparently the NH House and ME Senate race results haven’t yet been fully certified yet, which is why the AP is saying one thing and Ballotpedia is saying another. Looking it over, I’d say that the maps should be changed to NH and ME being made blue on both… which does not alter the larger point.
This is not what a D+6 electorate looks like:
This is, however, what a map of state legislatures that have largely come under the control of one or the other parties looks like. Red represents states that are ours; blue represent states that are theirs; purple represents states where the legislature is split; and grey represents Nebraska, which likes to be difficult (map drawn from data here; I’m assuming that New York’s Senate flipped). The AP also noted that 25 states now have veto-proof majorities; which suggests that, as usual, whenever the American voting public says that they want to throw all the bums out they’re actually talking about all the bums except the ones running their districts. (more…)
Those being the four states that are not running a deficit right now. The relative sizes of the rest can be seen via this handy visual tool:
I’d make more commentary on this, except that I can sum it up as stop spending money you don’t have, you idiots. And that is one of those binary things: people either already get that, or they don’t. Either way, there’s not much point for follow-up material. I will note, though, that the ‘top’ five deficit-ridden states (who make up 52% of the total deficit, interestingly enough) have one thing in common: their state legislatures are all dominated by Democratic politicians*.
*With the sort-of exception of New York’s; their State Assembly is run by Democrats, and their Senate is currently being run by nobody at all…
Crossposted to RedState.