Tag: third party

Quinnipac predicts unprecedented Libertarian surge in Virginia governor’s race!

Well, that would have to be the alternative explanation to what’s apparently happening, which is that the governor’s race is tightening in Virginia again. Cuccinelli/McAuliffe went from 42/48 in August’s Q-Poll to 41/44 now.

The poll indicates McAuliffe, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, at 44% among likely commonwealth voters, with Cuccinelli at 41%. The three point margin for McAuliffe, who lost a bid for the 2009 Democratic gubernatorial nomination, is within the survey’s sampling error.

[snip]

The new poll suggests that Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian candidate who stands at 7%, could hold a key to the November election.

And that last factoid reminds me of the 2009 governor’s race, actually.  Only, the one in NJ. Continue reading Quinnipac predicts unprecedented Libertarian surge in Virginia governor’s race!

Time for some Democratic third-party panic!

Karl over at Hot Air analyzes this WSJ article by Patrick Caddell and Douglas Schoen about as I would, but I have a couple of things to add.

  • Executive summary of the Caddell/Schoen article: a third party is really, really likely next year!  And it’d be good to have!
  • Executive summary of the Hot Air article: no, it’s not really likely.  Here, have some links to all those examples and historical data that Caddell/Schoen referenced, but inexplicably declined to link to*, and you’ll see why.
  • Executive summary of my reaction: what Karl said.  Besides, when Democrats start talking about how spiffy third-parties would be in a given race, it’s typically code for “Oh, God, we are so hosed next year if we run the current candidate.”

No, really.  The thing about the way that third parties are talked about by the media is that people only bring them up when they want to make it look like Generic Election X is going to be another Bush/Clinton/Perot ’92.  The problem is, our current political system is designed to bring about results that are more like Christie/Corzine/Daggett ’09**: two ‘real’ parties, with the rest acting as minor spoilers at best.  Which means that results like Hickenlooper/Maes/Tancredo ’10 are widely – and properly – seen as places where the system broke down, rather than a goal to aspire to. Continue reading Time for some Democratic third-party panic!

Third-party Hail Marys and the Democratic party.

Very entertaining news from Stu Rothenberg:

An unusual number of Democratic candidates running this cycle are basing their victory scenarios on the existence of Independent or third-party candidates in their races. Are their hopes reasonable or are they merely grasping at straws?

They’re merely grasping at straws.  To skip ahead a bit:

…more often than not, Independents and third-party candidates see their support evaporate as Election Day approaches, as voters realize that a vote for an also-ran is a wasted vote.

For an example of this, look no further than the 2009 NJ gubernatorial election. If you look at the polls for that election, you’ll see that virtually every scenario that had Jon Corzine ahead relied on double-digit results for the third-party candidate.  The Democrats even went to the point of doing robocalls for the third-party candidate, which ended up doing nothing much for Corzine.  Third-party support had been declining in NJ for weeks beforehand, precisely in the fashion and the reasons that Stu noted above.
Continue reading Third-party Hail Marys and the Democratic party.

Here we go again with the 3rd party anxieties… #rsrh

Allahpundit’s worried and Jim Geraghty’s… not… over this report that a fake “Tea Party” candidate (I’m not going to pretend that Ashjian’s anything but that, sorry) could win the election in Nevada for Harry Reid (who has a 58% disapproval rating in the poll from said article).  The scenarios involve a 9% to 11% showing for said third-party candidate, when put up against Lowden and/or Tarkanian…

Why, yes.  That is precisely the path of victory that the polls showed in NJ last year when they showed Christie losing.  Ask former Governor Corzine how well Daggett’s eventual numbers worked out for him.  And no, individual third-party candidates typically don’t take 10% of the vote in Nevada.  In fact, collectively third-party candidates don’t take 10% of the vote, either.  Usually, they’re lucky to break 6%.

In other words: if this is the Democrats’ strategy, then I might as well start in on declaring DOOM for them now and save time.

Moe Lane

PS: It’s way too soon for DOOM, of course.