Oct
31
2012
1

Gallup: Erm, that early voting advantage for Obama? Well… it’s sort of, um, yeah, NOT THERE.

Not even a little.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

Gallup’s showing that 15% of the electorate has already voted; 33% currently say that they have already voted or plan to; and estimate that 36% of the electorate will be early voting this year.  In case you were wondering, at this point in 2008 Barack Obama was winning all three categories in the previous paragraph by comfortable margins: 53/43 among already-voted, 54/40 among plan-to-vote-early, 50/44 among vote-on-Election-Day.  That link’s via Dave Weigel (who also helpfully offers up the Obama campaign’s rebuttal of state polls without noting that we are constantly seeing inflated reports of early voting on the state level*); the whole thing’s via Jim Geraghty’s Daily Jolt (alas, NRO is down right now, so no direct link). (more…)

Aug
13
2009
3

The August Rasmussen Public Trust Numbers.

Democrats slip to -3 on health care.

I think that this is going to sting the Democrats a little.

August 2009 July 2009
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 41% 44% (3) 46% 42% 4 (7)
Education 38% 41% (3) 41% 38% 3 (6)
Social Security 39% 43% (4) 37% 42% (5) 1
Abortion 36% 46% (10) 39% 46% (7) (3)
Economy 40% 46% (6) 41% 46% (5) (1)
Taxes 35% 51% (16) 36% 52% (16)
Iraq 42% 42% 41% 45% (4) 4
Nat’l Security 43% 47% (4) 40% 49% (9) 5
Gov’t Ethics 34% 31% 3 33% 34% (1) 4
Immigration 35% 43% (8) 34% 40% (6) (2)

Eight out of ten again, and the only sour note is that last month’s Democratic-flavored scandals were not sufficiently public enough to overcome what appears to be the built-in public bias on Government Ethics. On the other hand, we just took first place in health care for the first time in two years, and it’s still fifteen months to November 2010. So, room for development, there. As for the Iraq question… well, for both countries’ sake I’m just as pleased to see that it’s reflecting a relatively quiet situation. The way that our domestic numbers are racking up I’m just as happy to concentrate on those right now anyway.

So, you have to wonder: at what point will the White House decide that it’s time to fold and start a new hand?

Moe Lane

(H/T: @JamesRichardson)

Crossposted to RedState.

Jul
09
2009
4

The July Rasmussen Public Trust numbers.

Short version: the public trusts the GOP over the Democrats 8-for-10 at this point, and we flipped the Abortion and Social Security categories.  That being said, the numbers readjusted themselves in the Democrats’ favor 5-for-10 as compared to last month‘s.

July 2009 June 2009
Issue Dem GOP Diff Issue Democrats GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 46% 42% 4 Health Care 47% 37% 10 (6)
Education 41% 38% 3 Education 44% 37% 7 (4)
Social Security 37% 42% (5) Social Security 43% 37% 6 (11)
Abortion 39% 46% (7) Abortion 41% 41% (7)
Economy 41% 46% (5) Economy 39% 45% (6) 1
Taxes 36% 52% (16) Taxes 39% 44% (5) (11)
Iraq 41% 45% (4) Iraq 37% 45% (8) 4
Nat’l Security 40% 49% (9) Nat’l Security 36% 51% (15) 6
Gov’t Ethics 33% 34% (1) Gov’t Ethics 29% 35% (6) 5
Immigration 34% 40% (6) Immigration 29% 43% (14) 8

Rasmussen has only put these numbers out here so far, unless I’ve missed it.  The shift down for the Democrats may be a trend; it may also be an inevitable result of the Republicans improving their position in eight out of ten categories from May to June.  Either way, I don’t think that it’s an accident that most of the GOP increases are in areas that have been in the news for the last month; particularly taxes, and particularly health care. The Democrats may want to consider adopting a strategy of visibly doing nothing at all, on anything

Moe Lane

PS: Also, the upcoming monthly financial reports for the various committees are going to be very interesting.

Crossposted to RedState.

Jun
09
2009
4

June’s Rasmussen trust numbers versus May’s.

[UPDATE] Rasmussen finally put up an article.

So, last month I posted Rasmussen’s report that the Republicans were back to being trusted more than Democrats on four critical topics, and trusted more and/or tied on five.  It got a surprising amount of play, given that I hadn’t really thought all that much about it when I wrote it.  Besides, it was one month, compared to a very, very, very bad month for Republicans; the numbers could very easily shift by the next month.

They did.

Jun-09 May-09
Issue Democrats GOP Diff Democrats GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 47% 37% 10 53% 35% 18 8
Education 44% 37% 7 49% 36% 13 6
Social Security 43% 37% 6 48% 39% 9 3
Abortion 41% 41% 41% 41%
Economy 39% 45% (6) 44% 43% 1 7
Taxes 39% 44% (5) 41% 47% (6) (1)
Iraq 37% 45% (8) 41% 43% (2) 6
Nat’l Security 36% 51% (15) 41% 48% (7) 8
Gov’t Ethics 29% 35% (6) 40% 29% 11 17
Immigration 29% 43% (14) 36% 37% (1) 13

(more…)

May
11
2009
25

Rasmussen and the quietly rusting Democratic advantage.

[UPDATE] And welcome, Weekly Standard readers.
[UPDATE] Welcome, Instapundit readers. Taking a trip, soon? Murtha’s here to help!

Examining Rasmussen’s trust-on-issues numbers from month to month is interesting enough, but I was interested in the long term trends.  So I put together this chart comparing this month’s numbers with those of last October’s*:

October 2008 May 2009
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Cum Shift
Economy 51% 38% 13 44% 43% 1 (12)
Govt Ethics 40% 30% 10 40% 29% 11 1
National Sec. 47% 44% 3 41% 48% (7) (10)
Education 53% 34% 19 49% 36% 13 (6)
Healthcare 54% 34% 20 53% 35% 18 (2)
Taxes 47% 42% 5 41% 47% (6) (11)
Iraq 47% 42% 5 41% 43% (2) (7)
Social Security 49% 37% 12 48% 39% 9 (3)
Abortion 47% 38% 9 41% 41% (9)
Immigration 40% 38% 2 36% 37% (1) (3)

(more…)

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