Tag: turnout

Do NOT rely on this news about how bad Democratic turnout is likely to be.

That is not to say that it’s untrue:

The Democratic Party’s worst fears about the midterm election look to be coming true.

Polling in recent weeks suggests turnout on Election Day could be very low, even by the standards of recent midterms. That’s bad news for Democrats because core groups in the liberal base are more likely to stay home than are people in the demographic segments that lean Republican.

A Gallup poll last week found that voters are less engaged in this year’s midterms than they were in 2010 and 2006. Only 33 percent of respondents said they were giving at least “some” thought to the upcoming midterms, compared to 46 percent in 2010 and 42 percent in 2006. Even more troubling for Democrats, Republicans held a 12-point advantage  when those paying “some” attention were broken down by party.

…because it almost certainly is true; but “Turnout will save us!” is the single most dangerous statement in electoral affairs. Use it as a pick-me-up.  Certainly deploy it as a weapon against our political foes.  But never, ever put your weight on it.

That’s all.

Democrats putting on as brave a face as possible for 2014 House races.

It’s a bit early in the season for Turnout will save us!, but the Democrats are determined to give it a try.  Stu Rothenberg:

In the face of a challenging midterm environment, Democrats are relying on money and an expanding get-out-the-vote effort to avoid losing any more ground in the House. But what does that souped-up ground game look like?

So, what exactly is their strategy?

Democratic strategists believe a renewed focus on districts with high minority populations (including black and Hispanic voters, for example)…

Continue reading Democrats putting on as brave a face as possible for 2014 House races.

Normally you don’t see “Turnout will save us!” until about October or so.

It’s a bad time to be a Democrat, apparently, because they needed to toss out stuff like this pretty darn early this cycle: “[T]he most important news for Democrats going into November is that the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee is planning to spend $60 million on data-driven GOTV efforts specially focused on reducing the “midterm falloff” factor.”  The link – unlike TPM’s – works, but I wouldn’t recommend clicking one way or the other.  The major questions raised by that quote: Continue reading Normally you don’t see “Turnout will save us!” until about October or so.