*I* don’t care that Nate Silver is giving a 60% chance to a Senate flip…

…but I know damned well that his devotees will care, so here you go:

Nate Silver, the former New York Times analyst who rose to prominence after correctly predicted every state that voted for Barack Obama in 2012, gave the Republican Party a 60 percent chance of retaking the Senate in November — a chilling prospect for Democrats who once found Silver’s predictions comforting.

Be sure to write those checks out to your party anyway, Democrats!  Sure, that money will just be thrown away, but that’s what Democratic donors are there for.

Moe Lane

PS: What’s that? Why don’t I care?  Because Nate Silver is really, really good at telling people stuff that they already know. And, admittedly, at pegging that state polls > national ones in 2012.   I anticipate with some interest how the man will ‘prognosticate’ 2016, given that it’ll be an election where the GOP starts off with the advantage… but I digress.  My point is that I didn’t need Silver to tell me that the Senate was sliding off of the beam for Democrats; and, frankly, if he was saying the opposite it wouldn’t particularly worry me, either (see the PPS).

PPS: It should also be noted that Silver got the 2012 Senate elections wrong: he had us gaining half a seat, and of course we ended up losing two.  I mention this solely because I enjoy watching a certain class of partisan instantly turn on their perceived betrayers.

2 thoughts on “*I* don’t care that Nate Silver is giving a 60% chance to a Senate flip…”

  1. Why will the Democrat’s probably lose the Senate, lets start with Obamacare they say 5 million people have signed up, that sounds like a big number until you remember there are 50 states. Meaning that on average only 100,000 people have signed up in each state. But that really isn’t so some states have a lot of people signed up some states haven’t. Then you toss in the really large population states like New York, California and Texas add to that places where the law applies like D.C. and Puerto Rico and suddenly things start looking really bad for Obamacare. And remember notices for rate increases will be going out prior to the election in November, some states will see double or triple premium rate increases. If you think things aren’t looking good for the Dems now just wait till November. Also running on a repeal platform isn’t really a possibility for Dems this year, at least not if they want funding from the party.

  2. The roll out of the PPACA was a disaster but I predict a lesser one than the reality faced by millions of people living 11 months under the Obamacare policies. Add to these the tens of millions under employer based plans who will receive their 2015 benefit enrollment packets right before the election and I sense a tsunami election.

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