Ace of Spades HQ’s Decision Desk projects it as follows:
— AOSHQ Decision Desk (@AOSHQDD) August 10, 2014
…as noted here the Brian Schatz / Colleen Hanabusa situation is as follows: Schatz is ahead by less than 2,000 votes, and up to 8,000 estimated votes still need to be cast via absentee ballot because two Hawaiian districts got slammed by a massive tropical storm yesterday. AoSHQDD crunched the numbers and they think that Hanabusa can’t make up the difference there; makes sense. I hadn’t particularly calculated in a tropical storm when I made this (currently wrong*) prediction, but random factors cut both ways. It could have just as easily helped Hanabusa. It certainly didn’t help Abercrombie.
It’s going to be a month before that Senate primary is over, though. And both sides look like they’re going to fight it out, bless their hearts…
PS: The Abercrombie loss is surprising for Hawaiian politics, not so much for the rest of the country: he was always considered to be serious trouble. Duke Aiona, by the way, is still in a good place to win the gubernatorial election… if you believe the polling, which as we’ve just seen is problematical when it comes to Hawaii.
*I’m trying to be precise, not weaseling. If the two districts’ results reduce Schatz’s lead to below 1,000 votes, the situation immediately becomes highly complex. As I understand it, Hawaii has no recount law; there may be one anyway, but how kindly is Neil Abercrombie feeling right now? He’s been tossed out on his ear and Schatz was his lieutenant Governor. Which is to say, I’m not sure that there’s going to be a recount, even if there really should be one. Unless Hanabusa finds a net 1,800 votes. Then there’s going to be a recount.