Time for the traditional ‘So why were the polls wrong?’ posts.

Caveat: I got it wrong, too. I said that it was much more likely that Donald Trump would either win big, or lose big, than it would be for him to get into second or third place.  Guess what happened?

So I can’t really criticize the pollsters too badly.  Of the possible reasons listed here as to why the polls were off, I’m going to go with ‘organization.’ Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio had people who not only looked over what the Democrats did in 2008 and 2012; those people also took copious notes.  Donald Trump’s campaign… did not.  Which is one of the things that maybe Trump should be wanting to fix today.  And I mean literally today. It would take a crazy amount of money to set up a working GOTV/voter identification system by the weekend using off-the-shelf components, but the man’s a billionaire, right?

Moe Lane

PS: Actually, yeah, I’m being serious. What’s the point of having a billion dollars if you don’t use it to solve problems that only a billion dollars could solve?

3 thoughts on “Time for the traditional ‘So why were the polls wrong?’ posts.”

  1. Ummm.. Trump did apparently have a team in Iowa, allegedly headed by the guy that got Santorum his upset a cycle or two back.
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    That’s not the same as “ground game” or “GOTV” since, as we all recall, Santorum did a hellaton of retail politics and no-budget work which Trump did not duplicate ..
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    Also .. bear in mind, I support *SMOD* in this race .. Iowa hasn’t been a very good predictor of much .. ever since it was recognized as a predictor. Goodhart’s Law, as I’ve mentioned before.
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    Mew
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    p.s. Yeah, good riddance to ethanol subsidies.

  2. Because polls are asking people who may just end up changing their minds at the last moment. Or make up their minds at the last moment.
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    Yes, I know Iowa goes through this every year and that actually may bring about a couple of things:
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    (1) The answer given fast to get someone to go away so you can go about and do important things.*
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    (2) The answer given for self-satisfaction.**
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    (3) The answer given because “Huh?”***
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    (4) The answer given because a partisan has a mission!****
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    *Breathing and staring off into space count as “more important than answering your poll.”
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    **Playing games with pollsters, changing answers every time you are polled, can be very entertaining.
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    ***Elect who? For what? Was he in that awesome UFC fight on PayPerView?
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    ****”Hold on right there; I want you to get down my answers precisely in the words I am using, and I know you record this, so the vocal inflections are very important…hello? Hello?”

  3. And by “Iowa goes through this every year” I mean every four years.
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    And ACat?
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    I too await the arrival of the Super Masters Of Dance!
    Break dancing, interpretive dance, folk dances, we will have everything, and through these moves, the leaps, the spins, the bows, the quadrilles we shall know who our true leaders are, those to lead us with fixed smiles, stylized encounters, and the scent of rosin and sweat.
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    And on that note:
    Music Box Dancer
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpqucmEA3P4

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