Paul Ryan is highest-ranking the Republican in Washington most likely to still have a career next year if Trump is the nominee. I mean, sure, the GOP loses the Senate and the Presidency. But you’ll still have a good, solid 40% chance of keeping the House of Representatives. And even if he loses, Ryan’s got nothing to personally fret over. He never wanted to be Speaker of the House in the first place.
The Latest: Ryan busted out laughing at Trump threat to get along or else: https://t.co/AipzTJo13j
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) March 3, 2016
See, I’m not sure about all the “We’ll lose everything else too” fears. The Senate is precarious anyway, but the House is solidly gerrymandered for the next four years. Given the enthusiasm gap you so often point out, even if Moderate Dems and #NeverTrumps abandon ship, I don’t see them crawling onto the porous dinghy that is Hillary & Co.
That’s why I give it such high odds that the House will stay in Republican hands. 9 or less on 3d6 isn’t *horrible*. I’ve made that roll.
Heck, it’s not even a given that we’d lose the Senate; I’d say it’s a 6 or less on 3d6. McConnell for all that he’s a weasel has already cleared GOP Senators running for re-election to run anti-Trump ads as needed, and GOP Senators are generally only allowed to run ads against their party’s Presidential nominee if they’re in a deep blue state.
Er, to clarify, need to roll 6 or less on 3d6 to keep the Senate.
That’s not even a very tough roll, if my time playing Risk is any indicator…
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Mew
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http://www.amazon.com/Risk-The-Game-Strategic-Conquest/dp/B0017RXZO8
Is this a Champions or just general Hero System reference, or is there another game that uses a 3d6 system.
I always liked the simplicity of only needing a ton of D6s to play, but a D20 or percentile system just works so much better mathematically.
GURPS, of course. 3rd Edition, equally of course.
I draw a slightly different conclusion .. of course Paul Ryan laughed, he knows perfectly well Trump’s posturing and playing to the back row… and if Trump *does* win, Paul Ryan is well positioned to become the “GOP hero” who gets Trump neutered and paper-trained..
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Mew
And it’s the correct response too. Ted Cruz laughed when he heard about Trump threatening to sue him, and said he’d depose him himself.
Yep. Trump does this “I’ll sue!” schtick – and it is definitely a schtick. Apparently, it works for him because he *keeps doing it*.
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Had an interesting conversation elsewhere with a person who insisted Trump’s incompetent, that the Cruz suit was “garbage lawyering” ..
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My guess is it’s rather competent weasel-lawyering – Trump wanted to make sure the suit would get tossed well before it got to depositions.
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Mew
Who is this Paul Ryan of whom you speak?
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Surely not The Speaker of the House who caved and gave the Dems everything they wanted?
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