Avengers: Infinity War projected for 200+ Million opening.

Disney’s low-balling their own number, of course — they’re saying it’ll ‘only’ be $175 million or more — but the rest of the people in the industry are saying that Avengers: Infinity War will hit over 200 million in its opening weekend.  Will it?  I’m of several minds on this one.

  • First and foremost: I ain’t an expert on box offices. Just because Infinity War seems like it’d be even more of a monster than two hundred million to me doesn’t mean that it will.  These people make a living figuring this stuff out.
  • Second and however: this movie is going to bring in everybody. Like everybody who jumped up and down for Black Panther, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Guardians of the Galaxy, Winter Soldier, the actual Avengers movies themselves (which seem to be less culturally relevant than the spinoff movies, bizarrely enough) — heck, there are people eager to see Ant-Man and the Wasp* who are going to go see Infinity War just to see if Scott brought his crew along.
  • Third and possibly contradicting the second point: then again, the MCU seems to have a remarkable number of people who just go and see every movie.  Certainly I go to the theaters more or less automatically at this point.

So I do not know.  I will only be mildly surprised if this movie hits The Last Jedi levels for its opening weekend. I will definitely be surprised if Disney’s low-balling is accurate.  Which it will not be.

Moe Lane

*Soon.  SOON.

8 thoughts on “Avengers: Infinity War projected for 200+ Million opening.”

  1. Ant Man was a much better movie than it had any real right to be, so I am now looking forward to the sequel.

    1. Concur. It’s still a popcorn-movie .. doesn’t stick with ya after you’re out of the theater .. but it was a *fun* popcorn movie.
      Guardians 2 .. was not the sequel Guardians deserved.

  2. Agreed. Marvel built up a lot of good will with me as a customer by putting out films that were pleasant surprises for a jaded old cynic like me.

    I’m willing to see what they’ve got with this one.

  3. It’s like this .. to get a $200 million open, they need to get 20 million people to buy $10 tickets .. or 30 million people (10% of population, more or less) to buy $5 tickets.
    The actual ticket price is somewhere in between, so .. the 7%-10% number works.
    *IF* they can get people to go back for a second show on the same “opening weekend” with people who normally *wouldn’t* go .. they only need 3%-7% .. Star Trek IV (“the one with the whales”) achieved this. So .. yeah, $200 is within reason.
    If the movie contains a *serious* turn-off or foul-up, and true-fans don’t see it twice or three times in a weekend .. $175 million becomes a high estimate. Star Trek V (“the stupid one”) achieved this. Guardians 2 .. is closer to Trek V than I’d like.
    One wonders, then, how well the mouse can dance on the knife-edge.

      1. Matinees and older theaters, man.

        I just saw A Quiet Place for $4.32 yesterday.

        I wholeheartedly recommend it, btw. Zounds.

      2. The Marcus Theatres in the midwest have $5 Tuesdays. And that includes the really big screens, the sound system that goes with a big screen and the very large, comfortable electric recliners.
        Well worth the price. They offer several other deals too.

  4. It still needs to be a good, fun story. Do that, and they will be good.

    Don’t screw up Captain America.

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