2016 – Page 6 – Moe Lane

If the 2016 primary comes down to Christie versus Walker, we will have done well.

There are other good combos, of course.

This observation by Allahpundit over the Christie/Walker dynamic in the primaries is worth noting:

One crucial thing that righties learned about [Scott] Walker during and after the Thunderdome in Madison over collective bargaining is that the guy simply will not bend on a policy he believes in, no matter how much acid the left spits at him and how far into the tank the media goes for Democrats in attacking him. He’s unflappable. That’s hugely significant when you’re thinking of throwing your vote to a guy who isn’t the most orthodox conservative in the field. The big worry about [Chris] Christie is that he’ll be wooed by media adulation of his charisma and his own rhetoric about the glories of compromise into governing even further from the center than people think. That’s less of a worry with Walker, the guy who became a right-wing rock star precisely because he wouldn’t compromise.

Continue reading If the 2016 primary comes down to Christie versus Walker, we will have done well.

Rooting for Injuries Watch: Hillary versus Warren.

Depressingly, I have to agree with Ben Domenech here*:

Even if [Elizabeth Warren] ultimately runs, I’m far more skeptical about Warren’s ability to actually beat the Hillary machine, in part because of the differences and similarities between the last inspiring progressive Senator who stole Hillary’s rightful place on the throne. The Obama nomination came out of nowhere – the explosion of an organic internet-driven fundraising challenger to the Clinton machine fueled in part by dramatic hopes for history-making achievement combined with a thriving cult of personality – and is unlikely to be replicated with Warren, who has nowhere near that kind of appeal nor the apparent ambition to go after the party establishment directly. That’s how she’s different. Continue reading Rooting for Injuries Watch: Hillary versus Warren.

Hillary Clinton: Homewrecker?

If so… well. And they wonder why Hillary Clinton lost the nomination in 2008.

Top Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin has been given an ultimatum: dump serial-sexting hubby Anthony Weiner, or get out of Clintontown.

“Huma has a choice to make,” a close associate tells New York magazine. “Does she go with Anthony, or does she go with Hillary?”

Abedin’s decision over whether to leave the “Clinton bubble,” where she’s seen as Hillary’s most trusted aide, has emerged as “the biggest question among Hillary’s circle” as the former Secretary of State mulls a 2016 run for the White House, the magazine reports.

Continue reading Hillary Clinton: Homewrecker?

No, @GovMikeHuckabee: do not run for President.

Since he is asking. He will have been out of office for a decade by the time 2016 rolls around; we will have a good number of Republican governors who are, frankly, fresher than Mike Huckabee would be at that point.

I normally would suggest that Huckabee run for governor again; but Arkansas has term limits with a vengeance. I don’t have any advice for him, sorry.

Quote of the Day, SING It, Brother @JonahNRO! edition.

Brother Jonah contemplates the likelihood of a Joe Biden Presidential run:

Why is this happening?

It’s a difficult question to boil down to a single variable, given the swirling maelstrom of egos, agendas, and issues at play. Still, one answer does seem to cover the waterfront: because ours is a just and generous God. From my admittedly selfish perspective, a Biden candidacy would be great for everybody — and by everybody I mean people who would like to see the Democratic party descend into a chaotic food fight.

They’re great fun to watch from the outside, yeah. Especially since whoever wins will be stuck with simultaneously apologizing for, defending, and keeping an arm’s-length distance away from every policy made during this administration*. Can’t wait.

Moe Lane

*Which is to say: the situation in 2016 will be remarkably different from the one in 2008. At least, for Democrats. For Republicans, it will be remarkably similar, except of course for the lack of vultures on our shoulders and terrifying portents in the skies and giant basalt, non-Euclidean cities rising out of the South Pacific and so forth. I’m still fond of GWB, mind you – but oh, my, but that turned out to be one heck of an electoral cross to bear.

Evergreen title: “The rumors of the GOP’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.”

I’m going to use a bit of Sean’s quote here, because I know that he’ll forgive me:

The story buried by the national media’s fixation with Hillary Clinton’s next move is the solid bench that Republicans have been efficiently building – not just in Democrat-blue Pennsylvania, but across the country – since her husband left office in 2000.

[snip]

“The presidency is one election, and Democrats and Republicans have basically been alternating it for the better part of a decade now,” said Sean Trende, elections analyst at RealClearPolitics. “But it is the GOP that is ascendant down-ballot.”

Trende explains that, in 2010, Republicans won around 54 percent of state house and senate seats nationally; the number fell slightly in 2012, to 53 percent of state senate and 52 percent of state house seats.

“Part of the disparity comes from the fact that not all the state senate seats were up in 2012,” he said. “But overall, Democrats pay the same penalty in state legislative districts that they pay in congressional districts” – their coalition has become too geographically concentrated to function well in legislative races.

Continue reading Evergreen title: “The rumors of the GOP’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.”

Guardian forced to concede racism not behind Barack Obama’s cratering support.

You have to skip through quite a lot of garbage about racism and the South to get to the meat of this Guardian post*, but it’s kind of worth it:

What needs to be pointed out, however, is that most of Obama’s current approval slide likely isn’t because of racism.

[snip]

The greatest fall for Obama isn’t among whites in the south; it’s in the northeast – you know that region that was on the correct side of the Civil War. Obama went from winning northern whites by 10pt in the election to a -12 net approval now. The next greatest drop is in the west where Obama fought to a near-tie in the election, but now has a net approval of nearly -20 among white voters. Close is his 14pt drop in the midwest where Obama’s net approval is now a measly -23pt.

The one place where Obama’s support among whites hasn’t fallen sharply is in the south. Obama’s net approval there is only a statistically insignificant 3pt lower than it was before the election. In other words, it’s likely he completely bottomed out in that region. Lack of white support for Obama hasn’t bottomed out in other regions.

Continue reading Guardian forced to concede racism not behind Barack Obama’s cratering support.

This is a dang good list by @baseballcrank…

…of things that the next Presidential candidate should do. I especially like this one:

31-When in doubt, go on the attack against the Democratic frontrunner rather than your primary opponents. Never forget that you are auditioning to run the general election against the Democrat, not just trying to be the least-bad Republican.

…God knows that I’ve made my operating philosophy on that issue clear.

Moe Lane

Let me sum up this Washington Post 2016 Democrat speculation piece.

Their top-ten list may be described as as such:

Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
…The Democrats are kind of f*cked, huh?

…I had originally had about three paragraphs of tedious analysis here about how bad this list was, but then I realized that I could sum it up very, very easily: Howard Dean made the WaPo’s Top Ten list. If that doesn’t tell you how comprehensively they scraped the barrel for this one, then nothing will.

Moe Lane

Hillary ain’t inevitable.

Politico asks a question: what if Hillary Clinton doesn’t run in 2016?

“We would be at sea in a lifeboat with no food, no water, and no land in sight,” said one veteran Democratic operative who has worked on presidential campaigns, and who, like most people interviewed for this story, asked for anonymity to speak candidly about the former first lady. “There is no Plan B.”

…but I have a more interesting question: what if Hillary Clinton doesn’t get the nomination in the first place? Remember, Clinton was inevitable in 2008, too – only to be finessed out of the nomination by the Platonic Ideal of The Shiny Object. In 2016 she will not be a Shiny Object herself – Politico to the contrary. She will instead be a former Senator and Secretary of State who is approaching 70: her actual job performance ranges from ‘uninteresting’ to ‘checkered,’ and we have had eight years already of ‘historic.’ Americans periodically get tired of ‘historic,’ and prove eager for another stretch of ‘boring, yet profitable.’ 2016 promises to be a year where they might express that attitude. Continue reading Hillary ain’t inevitable.