#rsrh The DOOM that came to NY-09?

It’s always hard to judge special election prospects from the polls, but if the teaser that Democratic pollster Tom Jensen put out on September 8th plays out tonight at 11 PM, it might be enough for the coveted DOOM tag for Dave Weprin.

Well, possibly not coveted by Weprin.  We’ll see tonight: I should update this post then.  Unless I don’t.

Moe Lane

PS: Bob Turner for NY-09.

Democrats facing electoral disasters in NV-02, NY-09?

But before we start talking about implications, let’s review the situations.

  • NY-09. This D+5 seat was vacated by Anthony Weiner after pictures surfaced… and I don’t need to end that sentence: it’s never good for a politician’s career when the phrase ‘pictures surfaced’ is used to describe his or her situation. The race thus is between Republican Bob Turner and Democrat David Weprin… and Democrats are even now going frantic. They’re going frantic because an independent pollster now shows Turner in the lead (which has been consistent with other polling trends); they’re going frantic because Tuner has picked up several key endorsements from prominent New York Democrats (over Weprin’s – really, President Obama’s – Israel policy); and they’re going frantic because the entire Weprin campaign effort seems to be infected with incompetence, starting at the local level* and working all the way up to the DCCC itself. The Democrats have dumped half a million dollars in this race, and are right now grimly contemplating the possibility that this half a million is buying them bupkis.
  • NV-02. Meanwhile, this R+5 district is increasingly looking like a retention for the GOP. Dean Heller vacated the seat after being tapped to become Senator John Ensign’s replacement (Ensign, as you probably remember – and you probably were happy to forget – left office under what we shall charitably call ‘under a cloud’); Republican Mark Amodei will be facing Democrat Kate Marshall. The DCCC has essentially written this district off, at this point: their primary strategy, if you’ll pardon the pun, was to get Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller (elections have consequences, people) to sign off on a winner-take-all election (which would have splintered the Republican vote), only to be told no by the courts. Since then, Marshall hasn’t been able to make anything stick – including linking Amodei with Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan – and Amodei is favored to win. Incidentally, the Right has put about 750K into this race, including about $500K from the NRCC.

Continue reading Democrats facing electoral disasters in NV-02, NY-09?

#rsrh Davey [Weprin]* running from Bob Turner AND Barack Obama?

That takes skill.

This is the NY-09 special election, which is starting to freak Democrats out in precisely the manner that past NY special elections freaked Republicans out, and for the same reason: watching a campaign slide slooooooooowly off of the beam, despite your best efforts, has a certain ‘cosmic terror’ feel to it.  Anyway, you already knew that [Weprin]* ducked and ran from a debate last week; but what you may not have heard is that [Weprin]* is trying to disassociate himself from the President*.  Apparently, Obama’s not doing all that great in NY-09 these days.

Via Jammie Wearing Fool, who also notes that [Weprin]* is more than happy to take Organizing for America’s help.  Just as long as they stay at the back of the bus, of course.

Bob Turner for NY-09.

Moe Lane

*He’s also allegedly trying to get people into Bob Turner’s campaign… which the[Weprin]* campaign denied in one of the most perfunctory and subdued denials in recent NY political history.

[*Oops! Fixed.]

David Weprin (D-CAND, NY-09) cuts and runs from Monday’s debate.

This is, of course, the special election called for NY-09; the seat was vacated after incumbent Democrat Anthony Weiner got caught showing his to his Twitter followers.  There was supposed to be a debate tonight, but it’s been canceled at the last secondBob Turner‘s (the Republican candidate) campaign is calling said cancellation ‘hiding‘ – which is what I’d call it, myself.

Weprin is blaming Hurricane Tropical Storm Irene for the cancellation (I’ll let New Yorkers on the scene decide whether that’s a legitimate excuse), but there’s widespread suspicion that the real reason that Weprin is dodging the debate is because there’s only one real answer to the question “Why did you think that the national debt’s only four trillion, Davey?” – and that’s “Because David Weprin thinks that the universe started on January 20, 2009*.” Continue reading David Weprin (D-CAND, NY-09) cuts and runs from Monday’s debate.