Elections tonight: Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi.

150 delegates at stake, and not a WTA race in the bunch.  Results will be tracked here: gonna be a late tonight on these, folks.  Hawaii we’ll probably find out in the morning, in fact.  If I had to put money down… Ted Cruz takes Idaho.  Donald Trump takes Mississippi, maybe: Cruz is possibly surging there big-time. Trump may have a better margin in Michigan, but John Kasich is likewise surging there, if not quite so big-time. And it’s not-Trump in Hawaii (too many voters with Chinese and Japanese ancestry there, and the state relies on Asian-Pacific tourism too much). I favor Marco Rubio for that race, but for no really scientific reason.

But that’s just my guesswork.

[UPDATE: rather better night for Trump in Michigan and probably Mississippi than I expected or perhaps only hoped, alas. They’re gonna call both pretty soon.]

Rumors that Establishment GOP is backing off in MS-SEN.

There will be a great and terrible compulsion for some to cackle over this.

Establishment Republicans are in a tough spot in Mississippi.

They want Thad Cochran to win the coming runoff, and could spend tons of cash to attack tea-party challenger Chris McDaniel. But they know the sitting senator is more likely to lose, and going after his opponent will only damage the party’s ability to beat the Democratic candidate and take over the Senate.

Don’t.  They’re going in the direction many of you probably want them to go.  Kicking them along the way might feel nice, but it also runs the risk of stiffening their spines.


Some good analysis here of the Mississippi primary…

…over at AoSHQ. A taste:

Cochran’s lead per this poll is entirely out of the third congressional district. You’ll notice it has a high concentration of “big vote” counties. McDaniel keeps things tight by edging Cochran in the largest-by-number-of-voters district, CD4. But he will need to do a lot better in counties that may favor the Senator, like Harrison and Jackson.

Short version: there are a lot of places in Mississippi that don’t actually bother to come out for primaries. McDaniel is drawing support from areas that have that quirk. Not insurmountable, by any means, but something to watch for, next Tuesday.

Moe Lane

PS: I am barely managing to stay out of this primary, and let me assure you: the NRSC isn’t making that bit of forbearance easy.

#rsrh Racist Democrat Steve Holland tries to memory-hole ‘Gulf of Mexico.’

No, really. This guy wants to rename it “The Gulf of America.” I can’re really improve on this characterization by blog of new orleans (and Fox should have linked):

Riding upon a chariot of Hummers driven by bald eagles, Mississippi Rep. Steve Holland filed a guns blazing cowboy steak of a bill, proudly waving our nation’s red, white and God-fearing blue to protect our American coastal waters.

Seriously, this is an incredibly dunderheaded idea. Even if Holland is trying to go with the “It’s a joke!” pseudo-defense now.

Meet Steven Palazzo (R CAND, MS-04).

Steven is up against long-term incumbent Gene Taylor, who has the profound misfortune of being a Blue Dog in an election cycle where people have started noticing that Blue Dogs aren’t living up to their reputation for fiscal conservatism. Steven and I talked about that, and other things:

Steven’s site is here. [UPDATE: and Steven’s doing a 48 Hour Challenge.]

Moe Lane (crosspost)

The *biggest* disappointment, Mr. Robinson?

In the middle of complaining about the President’s curiously limited visit to New Orleans, Washington Post opinion columnist Eugene Robinson wrote:

It was stunning that he would spend only a few hours on the ground and that he wouldn’t set foot in Mississippi or Alabama at all.


  • Mississippi, 2008 result: 56% McCain, 43% Obama
  • Alabama, 2008 result: 60% McCain, [39]% Obama [My glitch, folks: sorry.]

Not really, no.

Moe Lane

PS: Louisiana is part of a critical bit of Democratic mythology (How the Right Wing Left Black People to Die), so it needs to get at least a little attention.  Provided that it can be also used to push something truly important, such as pushing the Democratic health care rationing bill.

Crossposted to RedState.