The downticket implications of Obama losing the suburbs.

Spoiler warning: ‘mixed.’

Michael Barone has taken a look at two non-battleground states – New Jersey and Connecticut – and sees something interesting:

In three recent polls in heavily affluent suburban Connecticut, Obama leads Romney by only 52%-43%. He carried the state 61%-38%. Obama is running 9% behind his 2008 percentage; his 23% margin is now 9%. Polling in New Jersey, also heavily affluent suburban, is averaging 50%-40%, down from Obama’s 57%-42% in 2008. Neither state is a target state (though south Jersey gets Philadelphia TV, with any Pennsylvania-targeted ads) or likely to be one on these numbers. But if the apparent CT and NJ trends are happening in affluent suburbs in target states, assumptions based on 2008 benchmarks could prove to be unjustified.

Barone goes on to note a what he (and I) consider to be too-good-to-be-true poll of Cook County, IL; but even if Cook County is not in play it still remains unlikely that Obama will make his 2008 numbers there, either, which is largely Michael Barone’s point.  But let’s go back to CT & NJ for a moment. Specifically, the Senate races in both. Continue reading The downticket implications of Obama losing the suburbs.

Why is Scott Murphy (D Cand, NY-20) soliciting $4,800 contributions?

Isn’t that illegal?

Here’s the screenshot, taken this morning:

As you can clearly see, he’s still asking for campaign contributions for both the primary and general election… even though the primary is over. There are rules about maximum donations, and he’s violating them.

The regulating agency for this one is the FEC, not the NY State Board of Elections: unfortunately, they only take notarized letters (info on how to do that can be found here). So I suggest that you do the following two things. First, click on the link below and contribute:

…second, give the NY Democratic Party a call at 212.725.8825 or 518.463.1663 and ask them whether they’re standing by their candidate’s violation of McCain-Feingold. While you’re at it, you should ask them whether Murphy is still standing by his support of the stimulus (which Tedisco does oppose), now that it means that he’d be signing off on AIG bonuses.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Scott Murphy (D) thinks that the voters of NY-20 are stupid.

Give as much as you can.

That’s a provocative title, to be sure – but after reading this Weekly Standard article that’s the only conclusion that you can draw. Between lying about his opponent’s stance on the stimulus, lying about how he’s not checked out on the Solomon amendment (in NY-20! That’s like not knowing about the CBC in MD-07, or corrupt machine politics in IL-05), and – coming to the conclusion that being anti-gay is also racist? That one was a little incoherent – we’re seeing quite the flailing. Continue reading Scott Murphy (D) thinks that the voters of NY-20 are stupid.