It’s official: the last remaining ostensibly politically viable member of the once-powerful Carnahan dynasty has decided to not seek a third term. I say ‘ostensibly’ because it was actually unclear that Robin Carnahan was ever going to recover from her humiliating shellacking at the hands of Roy Blunt in last year’s MO-SEN race (13 points is pretty bad). And I say ‘last remaining’ because her brother Russ Carnahan is, metaphorically speaking, a dead man walking: the Missouri legislature took the opportunity offered by redistricting to excise Carnahan’s seat in a heroic act of political eugenics.
This could very well be the prettiest redistricting map that you’re going to see this cycle:
You see, Missouri is in an interesting place where the state is: losing a Congressional seat; just coming off an election cycle where they flipped a seat to the GOP (making the current ratio 6 GOP / 3 DEM) ; and in possession of an almost veto-proof Republican legislature. So, Missouri Republicans decided to handle the situation by creating a 6 GOP / 2 DEM district map that cut up Russ Carnahan’s district and forced him to compete in a heavily African-American district (as per the Voting Rights Act) against incumbent William Lacy Clay. They also more or less left Emanuel Cleaver’s seat alone – Rep. Cleaver does not represent a majority-minority district, by the way; this will be important later. And then the legislature sent the map to Democratic governor Jay Nixon, who promptly vetoed it.
Oddly enough, when it came to the override, four Democrats crossed over to vote for the map, thus overriding the veto! Oddly enough, all four are African-Americans (who readily admitted that they were protecting Clay’s and Cleaver’s seats)! And oddly enough, Russ is not taking it well! And by ‘not taking it well’ I mean ‘engaging in profanity-laden, bitterly sarcastic invective,’ although I’m not entirely certain that Russ can actually spell any of those words*. It’s probably not helping that the Carnahan name may be a bit… colored, in Missouri African-American eyes… by virtue of past history.
I’ll summarize the changes as follows: Missouri loses a district, thanks to the 2010 Census. On the Republican side, Vicki Hartzler is liking this map least: she had some R areas taken away from her and given to Emanuel Cleaver, and has been given some D areas from Luetkemeyer. On the other hand, on the Democratic side Cleaver’s district is now somewhat less urban. This is not necessarily a disaster for Cleaver: he’s that rarity, a Democratic African-American that white Democrats will vote for anyway. But the really nice news? Russ Carnahan’s district was chopped up like a chicken for the stewpot: half of it went to Jo Ann Emerson (who didn’t break a sweat winning last year with 65% of the vote) and the rest looks like it’s in William Clay’s (majority-minority). Bottom line: I am not an expert on Missouri county vote totals, but it looks like Missouri’s going to go from 6R/3D to 6R/2D. Continue reading Missouri redistricting hurts Russ Carnahan.
[UPDATE] Welcome, Instapundit readers. Note that I got sent this (via email, which is why no H/T). Also note that the Carnahan firebombing is looking like an inside problem. And welcome, PJTV viewers.
Amusing video of the day: Russ Carnahan (D, MO-03) runs away rather than answer a simple question on whether or not he supports the Ground Zero Mosque.
Yup, that’s some impressive leadership we’re seeing here in MO-03. Sheesh, you’d think that he’d at least admit that he has an opinion. Unless he really and truly doesn’t? You get the impression that Carnahan’s current job bores him so.
Ed is running against Russ “Yes, he really does look like that” Carnahan, who is mostly known (publicly) for his last name and (privately) for his growing disinterest in keeping the job. I’m not being cute, here: I’ve heard from several different Missouri political types that Russ Carnahan doesn’t even really want to be a Congressman anymore… which is kind of fortuitous, because Ed Martin doesn’t want Russ Carnahan to be a Congressman anymore, either. Ed and I spoke this morning:
If you are surprised to hear this, yes, well, it was a surprise for me too. It happened last weekend, in fact. Somebody threw an incendiary device in Carnahan’s office causing (thankfully) only minor damage: there was an arrest, but the guy was apparently let go. And… that’s pretty much everything that’s known about the situation.
As Americans prepare to file and pay their taxes, it’s come to light that Rep. Russ Carnahan may be skimping on his. The Congressman avoids paying personal property taxes on his 42-foot yacht by docking it in Alton, Illinois instead of his hometown.
“Illinois does not have a statewide property tax. Property is taxed on the local level only, and includes only real property such as land, buildings or permanent facilities.” (St. Louis Regional Chamber and Growth Association; Taxes and Incentives)
(H/T: Gateway Pundit) “Because taxes are for people who aren’t named Carnahan! Like, Ed Martin. Is he a Carnahan? I don’t think so! I don’t think so.”
[UPDATE: via Glenn Reynolds I see that Politico has updated the story, and that it was even worse before I noticed it. I’m making corrections.]
Let us start by watching what happened SUNDAY. This is via Gateway Pundit – who, by the way, was there and who was a spokesman:
Got it? Low-key prayer vigil, coffin brought in for staged funeral of Constitution [future victims of abortion. See, this is how you do it, Politico – ML], old people crying, coffin then removed. Now let’s see how Politico referenced it:
A coffin was placed on a Missouri Democrat’s lawn, another in a string of incidents against lawmakers after their vote Sunday on a health care overhaul.
Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.) had a coffin placed “near his home,” a spokesman said Wednesday evening.
The coffin was from a prayer vigil.
…and then they went on to equate this with (alleged) incidents or threats of physical violence. Without bothering to check, of course.
Guys? Unquestionably and uncritically reprinting Democratic party press releases like this is not going to be a viable business model, come January 2011. Russ Carnahan and his people can’t help themselves – in more ways than one – but you over at the Politico can.
PS: I’ll feel obligated to disavow acts of political violence when credible evidence appears that an organization that I belong to organized, initiated, or willfully incited one. Until then, I recommend that people wanting me to do that just save their screeds to their hard drive, preferably in a subfolder of the folder that they have for all those drawings of Sarah Palin being beaten.