The polls are open in Massachusetts, and the usual reports of heavy early turnout have begun. What men and women can do, we have done: it is now in the voters’ hands. All that’s left is to ensure that today’s is a clean fight and a fair fight.
Legal Insurrection will be live-blogging throughout the day.
Moe Lane
Crossposted to RedState.
[UPDATE] Welcome, Instapundit readers.
Glenn Reynolds and Kleinheider both focused on Ford’s unwillingness to take Obama’s direction on who should be the anointed junior Senator from New York, but the real hit there took place earlier:
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‘No Negro dialect.’ Admittedly, beating up on Harry Reid is fun – at this rate, I could run against him and win, and the only times I’ve ever been in Nevada was when I’ve flown over it – but it’s a sign of just how bad the year promises to be for the Democratic party*. After all, Reid is Senate Majority Leader.
Currently.
Moe Lane
*Ford has promised that if “I am elected senator from New York, Harry Reid will not instruct me how to vote” – and you know? That’s looking like it’s going to be a really easy promise for him to make.
I’m surprised that I missed this, actually. Then again, there were things going on last week.
Our Senate/Governor Editor, Jennifer Duffy, currently estimates that the range of outcomes in the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans. In the gubernatorial races, she sees the same likely outcome, a wash to a GOP gain of three seats.
[snip]
My own view, separate from the Cook Political Report’s estimates, mirrors [House Editor David] Wasserman’s current 20-30 seat net gain for Republicans in the House, but in the Senate, I take a bit more aggressive posture. I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.
I’m personally a sunny optimist, so six (AR, CO, CT, DE, NV, PA) is more my lower limit right now. And I think that at least one supposedly ‘safe’ seat for the Democrats is going to get absolutely hammered this year – and no, I’m not saying which one. People keep laughing at me in private when I suggest it. None the less… heck of a way to start the new year, huh?
Moe Lane
Crossposted to RedState.
Now watch: he’ll announce today, just to spite me.
[Former President Bill] Clinton delivered the keynote address at the party’s Jefferson Jackson Dinner, the kickoff to the 2010 campaign in Delaware — a foray many Democrats hope will again feature “Biden for Senate” buttons.
But there was no word from Attorney General Biden on Tuesday night about whether he will run for the U.S. Senate seat once held by his father.
Mark my words, an announcement was expected last night; the Jefferson-Jackson dinner would have been the logical time and place for it, too. On the other hand, VP Biden’s name does not have the luster… well, it never particularly had any real luster, but he doesn’t poll well these days. And on the gripping hand, as one of Jim Geraghty’s readers notes 2014 may be a more logical time for AG Biden to run for Senate anyway. Meanwhile, of course, Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) is running for Senate himself. For those keeping score: no on stimulus, yes on cap-and-trade – but yes on Stupak/no on health care.
Possibly lately he’s been… thoughtful… too.
Moe Lane
Crossposted to RedState.
(H/T: Instapundit) The Politico’s list of vulnerable Senate seats is interesting, interesting, interesting. This is not turning out to be a Democratic cycle, as witnessed by the fact that only two of the top eight vulnerable are Republicans. In their order of sitting incumbents*:
Dodd (CT)
Reid (NV)
Lincoln (AR)
Bennet (CO)
Specter (PA)
Vitter (LA)
Boxer (CA)
Burr (NC)
Of those eight, the only one that I’d quibble over is Vitter: he’s theoretically vulnerable over the escort thing, but the story’s been out for a while and he’s still crushing Melancon. Not that I expect us to win all of the other six… but we’re going to pick off at least half of them if the country stays on its current path.
No, I’m not going to say which ones. Where’s the fun in that?
Moe Lane
*The open seat ones are also interesting, but hard to assess this far out.
Crossposted to RedState.
RCP has the basic poll details:
| Siena | 8/17 – 8/20 | 621 RV | 42 | 39 | Pataki +3 |
…the link itself is broken. However, looking at the trends Sen. Gillibrand is as having as fun an August as just about every other Democrat: in other words, a rotten one. I don’t know if this means that Pataki will actually run, but it certainly won’t hurt. And I find that I approve of the Democrats having to spend money defending seats that they assumed would be theirs for forever, and a day…
Crossposted to RedState.
And they’ll just let him?
One week after deciding to side with Senate Republicans, a key architect of the state Senate coup says he’s coming home. A source close to Senator Hiram Monserrate says he will stay with the democratic caucus.
First off: feel free to take him back, Democrats. No. Really. You never really wanted him gone, anyway.
Second: this makes the entire NY Senate thing exceedingly complex. A 31-31 split will mean GOP-plus-Espada keeps control of the Senate… if his appointment is confirmed. That’s up in court today, and if the courts rule against Espada, the lack of a majority by either side puts the NY Senate back into chaos. There’s no Lt. Governor to break ties, you need 32 votes for a quorum, former Senate President Malcolm Smith’s being replaced as caucus leader… it is, in fact, going to be a glorious mess.
It’s even got a national implications: Democratic state senator Darrel J. Aubertine has been talked up to run for NY-23’s upcoming special election. The idea is probably giving his fellow-Democrats heartburn right now…
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
The White House decided to make personally certain that an unelected New York Senator with publicly-stated views on gun control and immigration contrary to the rest of her party was not challenged in the primary by a solidly-liberal Representative who is well respected in his caucus. This has caused a good deal of tension in the rest of the New York delegation:
Confusion, conflict mar Gillibrand’s run
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama’s effort to squelch plans by a New York congressman to run in next year’s Democratic primary against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand apparently succeeded.
In fact, the president’s call to Rep. Steve Israel asking him not to run may rank as a pivotal moment in Gillibrand’s effort to hang onto her seat.
But Obama’s phone call also has angered members of the state’s congressional delegation, who see it as heavy-handed intrusion reminiscent of Tammany Hall party machine politics.
The behind-the-scenes maneuvering has the makings of a political soap opera with some lawmakers feeling pressured to endorse early, some dissatisfied with Gillibrand’s views on key liberal issues, and some too upset to even break bread together.
To begin with, this isn’t ‘Tammany Hall Machine politics.’ Your standard Tammany Hall machine politician would have sneered at the way that the internal conflict between the state and federal power structures ended up in the local papers. As a practical hint: you don’t start this sort of thing by telling a politician not to run. You start by seducing his supporters away, then have them tell him not to run. Sure, it costs more – but it also avoids newspaper articles with headlines like ‘Confusion, conflict mar Gillibrand’s run.’
Continue reading The President roils the NY-SEN race.
House to gratefully let them.
They may call it “delay,” but they mean “eliminate” – and the Washington Post is happy to assist with putting this story on the seventh page.
Senate Will Delay Action on Punitive Tax on Bonuses
Jarred by a cool reception from the White House and fears of unintended consequences across the financial world, Senate leaders are likely to delay until late next month legislation to punitively tax bonuses at banks and investment firms that receive federal aid.
Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) announced last week that the Senate would move ahead with the legislation as soon as possible, and he attempted to bring the bill to the floor Thursday night. But he revised that timetable yesterday, saying that the chamber will spend this week debating a national-service bill before turning to a long-scheduled showdown over the budget for fiscal 2010. With just two weeks to go until Congress departs for a spring recess, action on the tax measure would be unlikely before late April.
That will effectively kill the bill, because everyone in Washington is betting that a month should be enough time for the populace to have something else besides the Democrat-inspired and Democrat-encouraged AIG bonus PR fiasco to focus upon; which is not a bad bet, actually. Already people are starting to notice that the Democrats’ House bill has a good deal of faux-populist outrage associated with it; and as Glenn Reynolds over in Forbes is pointing out, the Democrats are going to be soon having to hit up the very people that they’re currently demonizing for campaign contributions. Time to let this story die, and that’s why there’s a Senate in the first place. Continue reading Senate to discreetly shut down House AIG bill of attainder.
Should be interesting.
And it’s an open question who’s happier about this: us, or them. Via Dan Riehl:
Toomey to challenge Specter again
Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) will challenge Sen. Arlen Specter in a primary for the second straight cycle, according to Pennsylvania GOP sources.
The Allentown Morning Call reported Thursday that two friends of Toomey’s have said the Club for Growth chief has decided to enter the race.
