While I’m on the subject of predictions, here’s a quiet one: some time in September Nate Silver is going to announce his new House model, which will ‘amaze’ him with all the good news for Congressional Democrats that he’s getting from it.  I further predict that Silver will predict total House losses of… about 27 net seats for the Democrats: 40 Democrat and 13 Republican flips would be the number that I would use if I wanted to go with maximum galvanization of progressives, so let’s go with that.  This announcement will spill out via the New York Times and will be swiftly seized upon by the rest of the professional media: we will get three weeks or so of smug, congratulatory, and above all deeply relieved articles about the Democrats’ second wind… and it will not move the needle a hair’s-breath.

But it will keep liberals giving money and time to the Democratic leadership, so: Mission Accomplished.

Moe Lane

PS: I got the 2006 and 2008 election trends wrong.  So, by all means: have as much salt with that as you want.


  • bill-tb says:

    There is always hope … Turnout in Florida was 60% higher than Democrat, it usually runs 30% higher for Democrats. A 90% switch.

    Hope and change.

  • […] Midterms are Tightening!!” As Moe Lane writes, it’s a safe bet we’ll see plenty of these sorts of articles next […]

  • Rob Crawford says:

    Actually, I think if the left tries a “there’s no way we can loose” propaganda push, it will just energize the right all the more. There’s a strong sense of “wd can’t let them steal this” and any attempt to fluff up their numbers will look like they’re laying the groundwork to do just that.

  • Murgatroyd says:

    Furthermore, everyone KNOWS that polls are far more accurate than the actual election results (as in Ohio, 2004), so when the Democrats lose big this will be PROOF that the election was STOLEN by the Rethuglikkkans. The Dems won’t be sure just how it was done, but they’ll know it!

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