While I’m on the subject of predictions, here’s a quiet one: some time in September Nate Silver is going to announce his new House model, which will ‘amaze’ him with all the good news for Congressional Democrats that he’s getting from it. I further predict that Silver will predict total House losses of… about 27 net seats for the Democrats: 40 Democrat and 13 Republican flips would be the number that I would use if I wanted to go with maximum galvanization of progressives, so let’s go with that. This announcement will spill out via the New York Times and will be swiftly seized upon by the rest of the professional media: we will get three weeks or so of smug, congratulatory, and above all deeply relieved articles about the Democrats’ second wind… and it will not move the needle a hair’s-breath.
But it will keep liberals giving money and time to the Democratic leadership, so: Mission Accomplished.
PS: I got the 2006 and 2008 election trends wrong. So, by all means: have as much salt with that as you want.