…at least, for the moment:
Intrade Chart for Obama futures: yfrog.com/nzwbspp
— David Freddoso (@freddoso) October 4, 2012
Anyway: I’d be more impressed with the Intrade going down if I was all that impressed with the Intrade going up. It’s not a bad tool for figuring out what conventional wisdom is; but a look at Intrade’s antics during, say, a typical NY state special Congressional election should prove instructive when it comes to assessing its ability to predict the future.
Still: a shame that you can’t short stocks on Intrade, huh? Whoever suggested doing that to Obama contracts a few weeks ago on Twitter is looking like a freaking genius right now. [UPDATE: Apparently you can short stocks on Intrade. So noted, and thanks to everyone who pointed it out.]