#rsrh I would be more impressed with Obama cratering on Intrade…

…at least, for the moment:

Anyway: I’d be more impressed with the Intrade going down if I was all that impressed with the Intrade going up. It’s not a bad tool for figuring out what conventional wisdom is; but a look at Intrade’s antics during, say, a typical NY state special Congressional election should prove instructive when it comes to assessing its ability to predict the future.

Still: a shame that you can’t short stocks on Intrade, huh? Whoever suggested doing that to Obama contracts a few weeks ago on Twitter is looking like a freaking genius right now. [UPDATE: Apparently you can short stocks on Intrade. So noted, and thanks to everyone who pointed it out.]

Moe Lane

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  • AveSharia says:

    I would only clarify that the volume of trades makes the Presidential contact a much better source of information than a NY state special Congressional election; but yes, InTrade, for me, is a clarification of how events affect the likely outcome.

    And you can short stocks on inTrade! You just have to lock up the entire margin you would lose if the contract closes at $10.00.

    It is possible to sell shares that you don’t yet own. This is known as short selling. You are essentially “borrowing” the shares and selling them with the intention of buying them back again later. If you predict the market event will not happen then you will (short) sell shares. You can then cover this sale at a later time by buying back the shares, or hold until the market is settled.
    So don’t be put off selling shares because you don’t own any – you can sell shares without owning them first.

  • AveSharia says:

    …just to add, viewing inTrade as a referendum on events makes the changes a bit more interesting than viewing the actual number as an absolute probability of winning. In other words, if a Romney debate win was expected, then it was priced in before last night. That means his rise in price following the debate means that he did even better, or beat the expectations.

  • AZR says:

    You can short stocks on intrade. Click on Obama to win, and then on sell shares, as you can sell shares you don’t own.

  • AZR says:

    sorry I see too late someones said it.

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