[The Obamacare tax] tax will generally be far lower than ObamaCare premiums. That’s the clear conclusion of a new study by the 2017 Project, which compares premiums in the ObamaCare exchanges in the 50 most populous US counties to the tax that households could pay instead.
This year, that tax equals the greater of two numbers: 1) $95 per adult in a household, plus half of that amount for each child, up to $285 for an entire household, or 2) 1 percent of household income in excess of the tax-filing threshold ($10,150 for singles, and $20,300 for married couples).
So, for instance, a 31-year-old single man making $30,000 in Columbus, Ohio faces a tax of $198.50, more than $2,000 less than the cheapest option in Ohio’s ObamaCare exchange, even including his taxpayer-funded subsidy. For a 36-year-old San Diego woman making $40,000, the tax is $298.50, or nearly $2,400 less than the cheapest policy on the California exchange. She’s not eligible for a subsidy.
…because I was telling my readers this months ago. In August of 2013 it was clear that the Obamacare tax was too low to make people sign up; in September of 2013 it was clear that the subsidies weren’t going to help, either. The brutal truth of the matter is that even with subsidies non-Medicaid Obamacare expects the
victim user to pay a minimum of 3.3% of income towards his/her healthcare, while the Obamacare tax has a ceiling of 2.5% of income (and that’s in a couple of years). If you’re healthy, it will be necessary for a lot of special circumstances to come into play before noncompliance starts looking less palatable than compliance.
It would normally be at this time that I would write something like I don’t write this in order to brag, except that I am in fact writing this in order to brag. And why not? I certainly can’t brag about my Presidential picks in the last two elections! – but this scenario has been unfolding pretty much according to schedule for some time now, and Democrats are going to have to work out how they plan to respond to that scenario. Because “blame the people who warned you that this would happen” will… you know something? The Democrats should so totally do that. No, really. Feel free.
Make, as they say, my day.