Let me sum up: the races currently at risk for us (Toss-up or worse) are Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania: the ones at risk for the Democrats are Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. I don’t contest any of the ratings (they’re all Toss-Up, except for Pennsylvania, which CAC rates as a pickup for the Democrats); if I had to guess which states we keep and which ones we flip, it’s probably be Florida keep, Arkansas flip… and I think that we might be ‘given’ Illinois, but that’s just my endless contempt with the one-party state that is the Illinois Combine talking. Ask me again about Colorado and Maine when events on the ground shake out more.
And ask me all you like about Pennsylvania: just don’t expect an answer.
PS: If Barack Obama had had a better 2013 – and was going to have a better 2014 – there would be about four more states on our side that I’d be worried about. Fortunately for us, and unfortunately for the Republic, Barack Obama did not, and will not. Expect all-out electoral war in 2018, in other words: Democratic activists are going to be coming out of this cycle baffled, disgusted at their own party, and very, very angry.
Note: I wrote “all-out electoral war,” not “massive flipping of governors’ seats.” There’s a reason why the voters flipped all of those seats in 2010, after all, and it’s rooted in the Democrats’ current structural inability to run a state properly.