Mar
26
2014

Democrats not doing well with this permanent majority thing.

If I was a Democratic strategist, these Gallup poll crosstabs would be giving me conniptions, fits, and the galloping staggers:

gallup-demographics

Mostly because of the long-term implications. Generally speaking Gallup is showing a +8 advantage for Democrats among voters under 65, and a -3 disadvantage for Democrats among voters above 65. This, in isolation, is tolerable for the Democratic party. But if you look at the racial crosstabs… well. I hadn’t realized that we were doing so well among college-aged whites. Or that, among minorities, the younger you are, the more likely it is that you’re going to be a Republican. It’s that latter detail that will cause the allergic reaction among Democratic strategists: it implies – very heavily – that the 2016 strategy has to be recreating the Obama brand loyalty without actually having Barack Obama on the ticket.  Given that at this point Barack Obama couldn’t manage it*…

Moe Lane

*Notice how we’re not hearing too much these days about the need to repeal the 22nd Amendment? – A pity, really. The resulting brawl in the Democratic primary alone would be worth the price of admission: it’d make 2008 look like love taps. Because if you think we’re tired of Barack Obama, imagine how all those Democratic ex-legislators feel about him…

5 Comments

  • acat says:

    Y’know, I haven’t heard anyone suggest “Michelle 2016” in a while either ..
    .
    Mew

  • Catseyes says:

    The whole Democrat permanent majority thing didn’t take into consideration the Democratic party not being able to shift the economy out of neutral. If your party can’t get the economy to work it’s only a matter of time before you don’t have a party anymore.

    • jetty says:

      I had thought that the economy would bounce back in 2011-2012 regardless of what the Democrats did, and that they would crow “See, we told you that Stimulus, Dodd-Frank, ObamaCare would work!” That didn’t happen. But then again, the Democrats still aren’t getting blamed for making things worse to the degree that would satisfy me.

      • Catseyes says:

        Give it time Jetty the slow drip, drip, drip, of bad news wears away at their enthusiasm and support over time, much like water wears away stone. We have 2 and half more years of the economy being stuck in neutral and O’bama not having a clue on how to change it.

        • acat says:

          Obama continues to follow in Bush’s wake… The media won’t say it but ‘Obama fatigue’.
          .
          Mew

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