My quick handicapping of Democratic at-risk Senate races in 2014.

Since Glenn Reynolds asked, here’s my current assessment of at-risk Democratic Senators in 2014*. Bear in mind: while I generally got the House right in 2010 and 2012, I overestimated our Senate performance by a couple of seats in both years and of course got the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections wrong.  So, you know, grain of salt and all of that.

Alaska Mark Begich Serious Risk
Arkansas Mark Pryor Some Risk
Colorado Mark Udall Some Risk
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Serious Risk
Massachusetts John Kerry Only if vacant
Michigan Carl Levin Low Risk
Minnesota Al Franken Serious Risk
Montana Max Baucus Some Risk
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Some Risk
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg Only if vacant
New Mexico Tom Udall Low Risk
North Carolina Kay Hagan Serious Risk
Oregon Jeff Merkley Some Risk
South Dakota Tim Johnson Serious Risk
Virginia Mark Warner Low Risk
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller Low Risk

Quick assessments on each: (more…)

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