Since Glenn Reynolds asked, here’s my current assessment of at-risk Democratic Senators in 2014*. Bear in mind: while I generally got the House right in 2010 and 2012, I overestimated our Senate performance by a couple of seats in both years and of course got the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections wrong. So, you know, grain of salt and all of that.
| Alaska | Mark Begich | Serious Risk |
| Arkansas | Mark Pryor | Some Risk |
| Colorado | Mark Udall | Some Risk |
| Louisiana | Mary Landrieu | Serious Risk |
| Massachusetts | John Kerry | Only if vacant |
| Michigan | Carl Levin | Low Risk |
| Minnesota | Al Franken | Serious Risk |
| Montana | Max Baucus | Some Risk |
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen | Some Risk |
| New Jersey | Frank Lautenberg | Only if vacant |
| New Mexico | Tom Udall | Low Risk |
| North Carolina | Kay Hagan | Serious Risk |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley | Some Risk |
| South Dakota | Tim Johnson | Serious Risk |
| Virginia | Mark Warner | Low Risk |
| West Virginia | Jay Rockefeller | Low Risk |
Quick assessments on each: (more…)
, and is (to the best to my knowledge) in the public domain.